Yesterday, college football news website On3 released its post-spring College Football Playoff and bowl game projections for the 2026 season, written by Brett McMurphy. Northwestern did not make the cut. This is surprising for a few reasons, and unsurprising for others.
The first is that the Wildcats have a lot of returning talent on the roster. Wideout Griffin Wilde is back, after an impressive first season as WR1 in Evanston. So is Hayden Eligon II, who impressed down the stretch as a second option with a clear ceiling as a top target.
In the running game, Caleb Komolafe is back to tote the rock for the 2026 'Cats. He rushed for 941 yards last season, a career high, and appears to be coming into his own as a lead back.
In front of him is a less seasoned offensive line group than in year's past, but Ezomo Oratokhai is back after a dynamite first year, likely shifting over to center. Otherwise, expect NU to have a solid group in the trenches -- it almost always does, and this is where developmental success stories tend to emerge on a yearly basis.
Defensively, Northwestern lost some talent on the line, but it has a whole host of defensive backs coming back. Robert Fitzgerald, who was fantastic last season, is back at safety. Braden Turner and Josh Fussell are back at corner.
All this is to say, this will be a relatively talented team next season, one that has the horses to get to six wins and play in another bowl game.
Here's why they might not. The first reason is that there are always unknowns when you bring in a transfer quarterback.
Aidan Chiles, coming in from Michigan State, showed off some serious talent with the Spartans. He's a dual-threat guy, and that theoretically will open up Northwestern's offense even more.
But there are questions about his ability to produce through the air. Statistically, he was never dominant with MSU, and Northwestern fans remember the Mike Wright dilemma well from two seasons ago. Sometimes, it just doesn't work out, and that's a reality folks should be prepared for.
But still, in a projections article, most would assume Chiles will be, at the very least, starting caliber. So it doesn't fully explain Northwestern's omission here.
What does is the schedule, which to put it bluntly is flat-out brutal. After opening with a frisky South Dakota State team, NU's second non conference game is Colorado, another one that is far from a lock to win.
Within the conference, the 'Cats get all four of Indiana, Penn State, Ohio State and Oregon, none of which they're likely to win. They also play Iowa, which will be tough.
The path to six wins likely entails beating Ball State, Rutgers, Minnesota and Michigan State at a minimum. Then, barring an upset over one of the blue bloods, they have to find two more wins in either the non conference schedule or against Iowa/Illinois. That is a tall task.
Ultimately, I'd bet McMurphy's decision had less to do with the talent on Northwestern's roster, and much more to do with the teams it has to play.