Chris Collins May Have Found Northwestern's Formula in Rotation

For those who follow Northwestern men's basketball this season, it’s been no secret that this team isn't making any postseason noise as youngsters and veterans struggle to mesh. However, after beating Indiana for their fourth conference win on Tuesday, the Wildcats showed promising signs that the struggles may not have been in vain.

What stood out intriguingly was the rotation. After countless experiments, head coach Chris Collins may have finally discovered the lineup that maximizes Northwestern's impact. Here's the starting five for the last five games:

G Jayden Reid

G Jake West

F Tre Singleton

F Nick Martinelli

C/F Tyler Kropp

Obviously, Martinelli is the unquestioned leader, leading the Big Ten and ranking sixth nationally in scoring at 22.3 points per game. Everything around his floor presence solidifies why the team needs him — just look at what he did Tuesday night in the second half, pouring in 21 of his 28 points to erase a double-digit deficit and lead the comeback win.

Behind the stardom, Martinelli elevated his game through an impressive three-point shooting, drilling 1.4 triples per game and shooting 43.2% from deep. While his impact remains a theory, but the key to Northwestern winning more games is consistent support around him — something Collins has struggled to find all season.

After several trials, Collins decided to keep West in the backcourt, and the freshman has surprisingly provided firepower when Northwestern needs it most. He's reached double figures three times this season, including a career-high 18 points at Iowa and a massive 16 points in the Indiana victory. He's shooting 36.8% from three-point range, ranking third on the team, and his Bayesian Performance Rating (BPR) ranks third as well, per EvanMiya.

Beyond West, Singleton has emerged as another freshman standout. As the highest-ranked recruit in Northwestern program history, the highly-touted rookie has provided consistency with 25 starts, second-most on the team behind Martinelli (27). What makes Collins trust him most is his versatility on both ends. Though he has room to improve his three-point shooting, his ability to attack downhill for strong finishes and draw fouls, while providing decent coverage under the rim, serves as solid justification for his starting role.

Since transferring from USF, Reid was expected to lead the backcourt with scoring and experience. Though averaging a solid 9.8 points and 4.8 assists with moments of explosive offense, the junior guard has lacked consistency. After bursting out with a team-high 20 points against Michigan, Reid struggled in the following three games. If Collins continues leaning on him in the starting lineup for his athleticism, Reid must limit his turnovers, who leads the team with 48 this season.

After posting 10 points and six rebounds in the Indiana win, Arrinten Page is back on track for his redemption. 

The transfer big man from Cincinnati, who barely scored during his previous four collegiate seasons with the Bearcats, was once the second scorer behind Martinelli earlier in the season. However, after starting the first 12 games, he struggled to regain his rhythm during a stretch of steady scoring after Collins dropped him to the bench following his team-rule suspension. Though he returned as a starter briefly midseason, he hasn't found his identity.

But Northwestern needs him, and the Indiana win has testified to his importance. Before hitting a big three-pointer along with Northwestern's rally, Page impressed with one crucial play — intercepting the Hoosiers' long pass, taking the transition, and finding an open Martinelli on the right corner for a triple that bolstered Northwestern's rally. Coming off the bench, he grabbed a team-high six rebounds, a block and two steals.

Collins could deploy him more off the bench, where Page has scored in double digits in several games — a safe approach if the coach believes he is more efficient as a sixth man. But starting him again is a strong choice, especially considering Kropp has been scoreless in the last two games.

Other "fringe starters" like Angelo Ciaravino and Jordan Clayton, who have been rotated between roles of starter and sixth man, provide flexibility. An interesting finding from NU Athletics shows that this duo, paired with West, Martinelli and Singleton, is statistically the best Wildcats’ lineup this season, posting a +29.7 net rating.

While having optimism in the depth, some questions remain unanswered: Max Green has been a DNP for five straight games, and K.J. Windham, who held perhaps the highest expectations to shine, has been essentially snubbed this season.

Collins appears to have found an impactful formula that a young-core roster can grow together, with veterans instilling powers off the bench that maximize efficiency. Though Northwestern has derailed this season, especially in Big Ten play, the sacrifice of time spent experimenting may not be wasted in the long term.

At the end of the day, you have to appreciate that Collins, who brought Northwestern to its first-ever NCAA tournament and a few times later on, is still coaching this team.