What is Northwestern's Most Likely Path to Bowl Eligibility?

Gavin Dorsey

Oct 1, 2025, 19:57

Gavin Dorsey

Oct 1, 2025, 19:57

Updated at: Oct 1, 2025, 19:57

Through four weeks, Northwestern is 2-2. The 'Cats must win at least half of their remaining games to reach a bowl game for the first time since 2022, but the road ahead is a rocky one. According to ESPN's FPI metric, Northwestern has the 20th-hardest strength of schedule left in the nation and will face three ranked teams in its final seven games.

Here's exactly how the Wildcats can reach the postseason and defy expectations:

Must-Win Games: Louisiana-Monroe, Purdue

The 'Cats' upcoming matchup against Louisiana-Monroe (Oct. 4) is their final non-conference game of the season. Although the Warhawks are 3-1 and Northwestern has lost to Sun Belt-caliber teams before, the Wildcats need to take care of business against a Group of Five opponent if they want to play in December.

UL-Monroe has picked up wins over UTEP and Arkansas State, but a 73-0 loss to No. 10 Alabama was the team's lone game against a Power Four foe. Northwestern is certainly not comparable to a team like the Crimson Tide, but there is simply not a path for the 'Cats to reach the postseason if they fall to the Warhawks.

Purdue (Oct. 18) appears to have improved from last season's 1-11 campaign, but the Boilermakers are Northwestern's lone remaining Big Ten opponent that failed to play in a bowl game a year ago. With how daunting the rest of NU's schedule is, Purdue is a must-win game for the 'Cats.

Toss-Up Games: Nebraska, USC, Minnesota

If Northwestern handles the two aforementioned opponents and loses to No. 7 Penn State, as widely expected, the Wildcats will head into the final weekend of October with a 4-3 (2-2 B1G) record. NU would need to pick up two wins across the last six weeks, and given the quality of those matchups, that could be a tough task.

Road games against Nebraska (Oct. 25) and USC (Nov. 7) are slated to take place in raucous environments, and both squads' lone losses have come against ranked Big Ten teams. However, the Cornhuskers and Trojans are not unbeatable, and the 'Cats might be able to pull off the shocker. USC was upset by Maryland and Washington a year ago, while Nebraska suffered a similar fate to UCLA.

Minnesota (Nov. 22) has won a bowl game in each of the last four seasons, but is starting a redshirt freshman at quarterback this fall. The Gophers' single loss was against California, which was shut-out by San Diego State, 34-0.

Long-Shot Upsets: Penn State, Michigan, Illinois

Northwestern's last victory over a ranked team came in 2020, when the No. 19 Wildcats took down No. 10 Wisconsin. Since then, NU is 0-12, and the 'Cats haven't beaten a ranked opponent while being unranked since 2018. No. 2 Oregon defeated Northwestern in Week 3, 34-14, but the Wildcats still have three ranked matchups remaining.

Games at No. 7 Penn State (Oct. 11), against No. 20 Michigan at Wrigley Field (Nov. 15) and at No. 22 Illinois (Nov. 29) will likely see the 'Cats as major underdogs. All three of the Nittany Lions, Wolverines and Fighting Illini have lost once this season, but each of the defeats came at the hands of another ranked opponent. Given Northwestern's offensive struggles so far, it's difficult to see an outcome in which the Wildcats can score on the vaunted defenses of Penn State, Michigan and Illinois.

What is Northwestern's Most Likely Path to Bowl Eligibility?