An insider predicts Penn State's playoff hopes hinge on a patchwork roster and a new coach navigating a Big Ten gauntlet.
New Penn State head coach Matt Campbell had a lot working against him when he was hired in December.
Most of the Nittany Lions high school recruits had been plucked during the elongated national coaching search that came after James Franklin was fired in October.
Campbell did his best in the transfer portal, bringing in 23 of his former players from Iowa State, including starting quarterback Rocco Becht. It remains to be seen how PSU's patchwork roster holds up for the upcoming season.
PSU has one thing in its favor: a generous Big Ten schedule. Penn State will not play Ohio State, Oregon or Indiana. Its hardest games are against USC, Michigan and Washington.
Vegas put the under/over win total for PSU in 2026 at 9.5 games.
During an appearance on the "Cover 3" podcast on Wednesday, host Tom Fornelli explained why he's taking the under, crushing the team's hopes of making the College Football Playoff.
"But juiced to the under," Fornelli said. "Yeah, they have four returning starters from last year, and yeah, they brought in Rocco Beck, but they've pretty much brought in the entire Iowa State roster."
The concern is that a roster comprised of players that went 8-4 in the Big 12 will struggle against Big Ten competition, as the Big Ten is a more prestigious conference than the Big 12.
Host Danny Kanell took the opposite approach, thinking PSU can win games against a weak Big Ten schedule.
"Really surprised us at nine and a half," Kanell said. "I was going to ask you guys if it was James Franklin and stayed like they've been a pretty consistent 10-2 team until last season. The schedule is an absolute cakewalk.
"I know you've got to replace Drew Aller, but you've got Rocco Becht coming in, and if he doesn't win the job, I'd be surprised, but he's won a lot of games. He started a boatload of games. Like they do retain some talent."
Frankly, Penn State appears to be one of the biggest wild cards in college football because of their roster turnover. It'll be up to Campbell to develop his talent into a contender this season.
Campbell needs to do so to help with his recruiting efforts in the offseason. It's a high-pressure situation for the new coach in Year 1.