The excitement around Penn State is tangible, but it isn't enough for Josh Pate to include in his College Football Playoff.
It doesn't feel right talking about the College Football Playoff on the day that many programs begin their Training Camps, but here we are.
One of the leading college football personalities, Josh Pate, released his CFP prediction for the 2026-27 season, and as a surprise, the Nittany Lions are nowhere to be found. Now, this is fascinating because Pate, along with many others, has been very outspoken about their excitement for the Nittany Lions.
The reasons are twofold. The first is that nearly everyone who is anyone is excited about the Matt Campbell hire. Campbell is the perfect personality for this position and is truly a guy who can turn this Penn State program back to being a winner.
The second is that Penn State's schedule is very, very soft.
Unlike some others in the Big Ten, the Nittany Lions have a very weak out-of-conference schedule to start the season. It is comprised of Marshall, Temple, and Buffalo, which isn't exactly murderer's row.
Now, to balance out their weak out-of-conference schedule, they have the second-weakest Big Ten schedule. It starts soft, then ramps up in mid-October before falling off towards the end.
Truly, all Penn State needs to do is grab one of their three-game stretch between USC, Michigan, and Washington. Those are the three toughest games on their calendar, and if they get one of them, they are in good shape.
If they get two of them, they are in the driver's seat, and if they sweep that stretch, then look out, the Nittany Lions are legitimate contenders.
However, in Pate's scenario, none of that comes true.
The assumption here is that Penn State falls to three losses, which, for some teams next year, will be enough to get in the Playoff. See Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, and Texas.
Penn State's threshold is two losses. If they get to two losses, they will be a fringe Playoff team. If they fall three times, they will be on the outside looking in.
They will be doing a delicate dance next year, tiptoeing their way through the season. The major challenge is that they have a nearly brand-new roster, a brand-new coach, and a new program that has to correct a lot of wrongs.
Is it beyond Campbell to make this a reality? Definitely not. That's not to say it will be easy, but if Penn State takes care of business when they are supposed to, I believe that they will prove Pate wrong and the white lionhead will be in the CFP somewhere.
