SMU's Best Path to Beating Virginia Starts With Beau Pribula

Virginia comes to Ford Stadium on Saturday with a quarterback who is dangerous in one particular way, and SMU’s defensive plan should be built around taking it away.

Beau Pribula has thrown for 1,080 yards through six games. That is a modest total for a starting quarterback in October, and it reflects how Virginia’s offense is constructed. The Cavaliers want to run the ball, and they want Pribula running, too.

His best performance of the season came in the opener against NC State, when he carried 15 times for a career-high 110 yards while attempting just 11 passes. That is the blueprint Virginia wants to follow.

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The games when that approach has not worked tell a more useful story.

West Virginia beat the Cavaliers 38-27 in September by refusing to let Pribula escape the pocket. He finished with eight carries for minus-1 yard, took three sacks and completed 63.6% of his passes after completing better than 80% in each of his first two games. The pass rush hemmed him in, and the offense never found another gear.

Florida State applied similar pressure with similar results.

The pattern stretches back further than this season. Pribula started 10 games at Missouri last year behind an offensive line and a backfield featuring SEC rushing leader Ahmad Hardy, yet the Tigers still ranked 15th out of 16 SEC teams in passing at 178.1 yards per game. Pribula completed 67.4% of his passes, the third-best mark in the conference, but threw only 11 touchdowns against nine interceptions. When defenses took away the run and forced him to throw, his decision-making slipped. Before his injury against Vanderbilt, he had thrown three touchdowns and five interceptions in SEC play.

He has protected the ball better this season, with just one interception, but the passing volume suggests Virginia has structured its offense to avoid asking him to do too much.

The matchup numbers are close enough to make this a real test. SMU’s run defense allows 161 yards per game, ranking 76th nationally. Virginia’s rushing attack produces 148 yards per game, ranking 67th. Neither unit has separated itself, which means Saturday’s matchup will come down to execution.

SMU has a front that has shown it can get home. The Mustangs sacked Mason McKenzie five times against Boston College two weeks ago and held the Eagles scoreless across seven straight possessions. If that version of the defensive line shows up, Pribula is going to spend the afternoon under pressure.

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The formula is straightforward. Contain the running backs, keep Pribula inside the pocket, make him hold the ball, and force Virginia to win with throws it has not consistently made. SMU is equipped for that second part, ranking 20th nationally in passing yards allowed at 170.3 per game. Delaware stacked the box in September and Pribula burned them for 279 yards and four touchdowns, so the secondary will be tested. But that came against an FCS opponent, and Virginia’s passing numbers against real competition look considerably different.

SMU comes off a bye with time to prepare and a 9-0 record at home in ACC games since joining the conference. Virginia has struggled lately, and the Mustangs have an opportunity to build on their 2-1 conference record.