Has Kyle Smith Built an NCAA Tournament Team at Stanford?

Stanford men's basketball has not reached the NCAA Tournament since the 2013-14 season. Head coach Kyle Smith has yet to end that drought, but his first two seasons have given the program reasons for optimism. He went 41-27, winning at least 20 games in each season and becoming the first coach in school history to accomplish that feat in his first two years.

Stanford also finished .500 or better in ACC play both seasons, going 20-18 combined. Only Duke, North Carolina, Louisville and Clemson matched that consistency over the same span.

The postseason results, however, tell a different story. Stanford reached the NIT in 2025 and the College Basketball Crown in 2026, marking its first consecutive postseason appearances since 2012-15.

Last season was particularly frustrating.

According to Stanford, the Cardinal became the first team in the NET era to win at least 20 games, record five Quadrant 1 victories and finish with a winning record against Quadrant 1 and 2 opponents combined without earning an NCAA Tournament bid. Their ACC Tournament run ended with a one-point loss to Pittsburgh.

Now Smith faces a different challenge. He must replace Ebuka Okorie, the No. 17 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, who led the ACC with 23.3 points per game. Stanford added three transfers and five freshmen while retaining eight players from last season's roster.

Nick Townsend arrives from Yale after averaging 16.3 points, 7.4 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game. Christian Bliss brings playmaking ability after averaging 16.7 points, 5.2 rebounds and 5.9 assists at Delaware.

Austin Maurer adds size to a roster that will need contributions from several newcomers. Freshmen Julius Price and Aziz Olajuwon also started Stanford's exhibition against Santa Clara, alongside Bliss, Donavin Young and Aidan Cammann.

The expectations remain modest. Stanford sits 13th in the ACC preseason poll, while CBS Sports' panel projected the Cardinal 14th. Still, there are reasons to believe the team could outperform those predictions.

One voter at On3 ranked Stanford eighth in the conference, and CBS Sports suggested that a productive freshman class could help put the Cardinal back in the NCAA Tournament conversation.

The exhibitions offered mixed signals. Stanford lost 83-78 at Santa Clara despite Price's 26-point performance, committing 20 turnovers in the process. The Cardinal then fell 85-57 at Oregon after trailing 40-24 at halftime. Neither result counts toward the regular-season record, but both highlighted areas Smith must address before conference play begins.

Replacing Okorie's production will be the biggest challenge, but Stanford's tournament hopes will depend on more than finding another scorer. Three areas will likely determine whether the Cardinal can make the jump.

First, Stanford needs reliable scoring from its backcourt. Okorie's departure leaves a significant offensive void, and no single player is guaranteed to fill it. Bliss brings playmaking experience, while Price offers scoring potential. Stanford will need both, along with contributions from its other guards, to prevent opposing defenses from focusing on a single option.

Second, rebounding and interior production must improve. Adding size through Maurer and other newcomers could help, but Stanford needs consistent contributions on the glass and around the basket. Against stronger ACC opponents, those possessions could determine whether close games end in wins or losses.

Finally, ball security will be essential. The 20 turnovers against Santa Clara offered an early warning. A team replacing its leading scorer cannot afford to waste possessions, particularly in a conference where the margin between a competitive performance and a damaging loss can be small.

Last season showed that Smith can build a team capable of winning 20 games and competing in the ACC. It also showed how difficult it can be to turn that success into an NCAA Tournament invitation. Stanford finished 9-9 in conference play and lost its ACC Tournament opener by one point. Repeating that record may not be enough to change its postseason fate.

Smith does not necessarily need another dramatic rebuild. He needs his newcomers to settle in quickly, his guards to share the scoring burden and his frontcourt to deliver more consistent production. If those pieces come together, Stanford could outperform its preseason ranking and remain in the tournament conversation late into the season.

The opportunity is there, but the margin for error is small. Smith has established a foundation. Now he must prove that this roster can take the next step.

Stanford opens its 2026-27 season at home against Eastern Washington on Nov. 2.