TCU visits UCF for its Big 12 opener with Jaden Craig leading a surging offense against a Knights team built around a dangerous rushing attack.
TCU begins Big 12 play Saturday with a matchup that could tell us a lot about where the Horned Frogs fit in the conference race.
The Frogs enter Orlando at 2-1, coming off back-to-back wins over Grambling State and Arkansas State after opening the season with a 15-10 loss to North Carolina.
UCF is also 2-1 and has won two straight, including a 44-30 victory over Georgia State last week.
The biggest storyline for TCU is quarterback Jaden Craig, who has settled in quickly.
Craig leads the Big 12 with 903 passing yards through three games and has produced consecutive 300-yard performances. He threw for 337 yards and three touchdowns against Arkansas State after posting 391 yards and four scores against Grambling.
Wide receiver Ed Small has emerged as his top target with 330 receiving yards, including a career-high 164 against Arkansas State.
UCF’s biggest threat is on the ground.
The Knights are averaging 228 rushing yards per game, led by Louisville transfer Duke Watson, who has 297 yards on just 27 carries. Watson exploded for 177 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries against Georgia State and is averaging an eye-popping 11 yards per attempt.
That puts pressure on a TCU defense that has otherwise played well, allowing only 29 total points through three games, its best opening three-game defensive stretch since 2014.
There’s also some history here. UCF won the only previous meeting, rallying from a 21-point deficit to beat TCU 35-34 in Fort Worth in 2024. Saturday will be TCU’s first-ever trip to UCF.
TCU wide receiver Jordan Dwyer remains out with a foot injury, while kicker Kyle Lemmermann is also listed out with an undisclosed issue.
For UCF, wide receiver Javon Bibbs is questionable with an undisclosed injury, while linebacker Lewis Carter is listed out.
Those absences matter more for depth than star power, but Bibbs’ status is worth watching before kickoff.
This game comes down to whether TCU can force UCF away from its running game. If Craig keeps producing explosive plays and the Frogs make the Knights throw consistently, TCU should have a chance to leave Orlando with an important road win to open conference play.
WHAT: TCU at UCF
WHEN: Saturday, Sept. 26 | 2:30 p.m. CT
WHERE: Acrisure Bounce House, Orlando
TV: FS1 | Dan Hellie and Robert Smith
RADIO: KZPS 92.5 FM | SiriusXM 238 | Spanish: KAMV-FM 107.1-2 and KLNO-FM 94.1-2
BETTING ODDS via DRAFTKINGS
SPREAD: TCU -3 (-112) | UCF +3 (-108)
TOTAL: 48.5 | Over -108, Under -112
MONEYLINE: TCU -155 | UCF +130
