High-stakes projections hint at a dominant Big 12 run as Jamie Dixon leverages roster continuity and star forward Xavier Edmonds to fuel another March Madness charge.
The TCU Horned Frogs have plenty of reasons to believe they can make another NCAA Tournament appearance in 2026-27, and ESPN's latest Big 12 projections reflect that confidence.
ESPN gave TCU a ceiling of 25 total wins, a fourth-place finish in the Big 12 and another trip to the NCAA Tournament's Round of 32. On the other end of the spectrum, ESPN's floor has the Horned Frogs winning 21 games, finishing eighth in the conference and reaching the Round of 64.
"The discussion around adding talent through the transfer portal often ignores the need for teams to prioritize retention. The latter is the reason TCU could reach the NCAA tournament for the fifth time in six seasons despite losing two of its top four scorers," Myron Medcalf writes.
While that range provides some perspective on TCU's potential outcomes, the overall outlook remains positive. The Horned Frogs are coming off a 23-12 season in which they went 11-7 in Big 12 play before advancing to the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament.
Xavier Edmonds is at the center of TCU's returning group. The star forward had other options for his future after helping TCU win its opening-round NCAA Tournament game, scoring 16 points and hitting the game-winning shot. His decision to remain with the Horned Frogs gives head coach Jamie Dixon an experienced frontcourt piece to build around.
TCU also brings back several other key contributors.
Micah Robinson is coming off a season in which he averaged 10.9 points per game, while Brock Harding contributed eight points per contest. Tanner Toolson also returns after averaging just under eight points per game. Keeping those players in Fort Worth gives TCU a level of continuity that could prove valuable in another loaded Big 12 season.
ESPN's projection of a fourth-place conference finish at the high end would represent a significant step forward for the Horned Frogs. At the same time, even the floor projection has TCU finishing eighth and making the NCAA Tournament, showing just how strong the expectations are entering the season.
The Horned Frogs will have plenty to replace, but their returning talent gives them a strong foundation. If Edmonds, Robinson, Harding, and Toolson can build on their performances from last season, TCU could have a legitimate opportunity to exceed its 23-win total and make another deep run in March.
