Fresh off breaking the NFL’s single-season record, the reigning sack king faces a skeptical forecast that predicts his production will plummet by half despite his historic dominance.
Myles Garrett just put together a season that will be remembered in NFL history. Apparently, ESPN's statistical model isn't convinced that it means much heading into 2026.
In ESPN's latest projections for the upcoming season, Garrett is expected to finish with just over 10 sacks, which ranks fifth among all pass rushers in their rankings. Aidan Hutchinson leads the projection at 12.5, followed by Micah Parsons at 11.1, Will Anderson Jr. at 10.5 and Nik Bonitto at 10.3.
For a player who just broke the NFL's single-season sack record, that projection feels like a serious lack of respect.
Garrett recorded 23 sacks in 2025, surpassing the previous official record of 22.5 shared by T.J. Watt and Michael Strahan. He didn't simply have a good season; he produced one of the most dominant pass-rushing seasons the league has ever seen.
Now, ESPN's model is predicting that Garrett will record fewer than half of the sacks he had last season.
There is certainly some reasoning behind the projection. ESPN's Seth Walder points to Garrett turning 30 as one of the biggest reasons he could have a slower year. But he just broke the record last year, so there is virtually no way that age catches up with him in that short of a time span.
The former Texas A&M star has won two Defensive Player of the Year awards and now owns the NFL's official single-season sack record. And he has done all of that in the last three seasons.
Even if Garrett doesn't approach 23 sacks again, expecting him to barely reach 10 seems particularly conservative. Garrett has averaged roughly 16 sacks per 17 games throughout his career, making a 10-sack season considerably below his established production.
And there's another reason Aggies fans should keep an eye on this projection: Garrett has repeatedly shown that statistical models can only tell part of the story.
The 10.1-sack projection may make sense mathematically, but it certainly doesn't feel like an appropriate reflection of what Garrett is capable of. After rewriting the NFL record book, the former Texas A&M superstar has every opportunity to make ESPN's projection look very, very wrong.
