ESPN gives LSU a 62.8 percent chance to beat Texas A&M, but Marcel Reed and the Aggies enter Baton Rouge carrying a two-game streak over the Tigers.
Texas A&M suddenly finds itself facing a September game that could dramatically reshape the direction of its season.
The No. 23 Aggies travel to Baton Rouge Saturday night to face No. 10 LSU after an ugly 31-21 home loss to Kentucky dropped Mike Elko’s team to 2-1.
ESPN’s Football Power Index isn’t expecting an easy recovery, giving LSU a 62.8 percent chance to win and Texas A&M just a 37.2 percent shot.
That projection makes sense on paper.
It also ignores one inconvenient piece of recent history for LSU: Marcel Reed has been a nightmare for the Tigers.
Reed helped flip the 2024 meeting after coming off the bench, rushing for three touchdowns as Texas A&M erased a second-half deficit and won 38-23 at Kyle Field.
Last season was even more impressive.
Reed accounted for 310 total yards and four touchdowns in Baton Rouge, throwing for 202 yards and two scores while rushing for 108 yards and two more touchdowns in A&M’s 49-25 victory.
Now he needs another bounce-back performance.
Reed has completed 62 of 104 passes for 632 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions through three games this season. Two of those interceptions came against Kentucky, creating another round of outside questions about A&M’s offense.
Elko, however, isn’t backing away from his quarterback.
The challenge Saturday will be getting Reed comfortable early against an LSU defense playing at home in prime time.
The Tigers have their own problems after a 32-24 loss at Ole Miss, and they’ll be without one of their most dangerous offensive weapons. Tight end Trey’Dez Green, who has 14 catches for 222 yards this season, has been ruled out because of a leg injury.
That removes a major matchup problem from Texas A&M’s defensive assignment.
LSU still has the venue, the ranking and ESPN’s computer projection on its side.
Texas A&M has something else. The Aggies have beaten LSU twice in a row, and Reed played a major role in both victories.
Saturday night will determine whether that recent dominance means anything when A&M needs it most.
