Texas A&M is coming off an 11-win breakthrough, but a tougher SEC schedule and major NFL losses have oddsmakers bracing for a sharp fall.
Texas A&M football finally broke through in 2025. Now oddsmakers are betting the Aggies won’t come close to matching it.
After winning 11 regular-season games and reaching the College Football Playoff, Texas A&M enters 2026 with a FanDuel win total of just 8.5.
MORE: Mike Elko Crashes ESPN’s Top Coaches Ranking
That 2.5-game drop places Mike Elko’s program among CBSSports.com's teams expected to suffer the largest regression in college football.
It’s a harsh projection, but it isn’t completely irrational.
The Aggies are coming off only the second 11-win regular season in school history. Sustaining that kind of success is difficult even before factoring in a tougher SEC schedule, significant roster turnover and the weight of elevated expectations.
Texas A&M also lost a massive amount of NFL talent.
A program-record 10 Aggies were selected in the 2026 NFL Draft, stripping the roster of experienced starters and high-end depth.
Elko attacked the transfer portal to plug several holes, but replacing proven production with newcomers always carries risk.
The schedule won’t offer much mercy, either.
With the SEC moving to a nine-game conference format, Texas A&M faces a more punishing weekly grind than it did during last season’s playoff run.
The Aggies will need to survive road games against LSU, Missouri and Oklahoma while also welcoming Alabama, South Carolina and Texas to Kyle Field.
That’s not a schedule built for coasting.
Still, an 8.5-win line feels less like a fair evaluation and more like a challenge to a roster that returns quarterback Marcel Reed.
Reed threw for 3,169 yards and 25 touchdowns last season, and his continued development gives Texas A&M a chance to remain dangerous even after its draft losses.
The biggest issue is whether Reed can cut down on the 12 interceptions that tied him for the second-most in the SEC.
If he protects the football and the Aggies’ portal additions hit quickly, Texas A&M could outperform the market.
But history is working against them.
Since joining the SEC in 2012, the Aggies have averaged 7.5 regular-season victories. Oddsmakers are essentially predicting a return to that familiar territory rather than another historic campaign.
But this Texas A&M program isn’t supposed to be satisfied with average anymore.
Elko raised the standard by reaching the playoff. Now the Aggies must prove 2025 wasn’t a one-year spike—and that 8.5 wins is an insult, not a forecast.
Follow Timm Hamm on X at @IndyCarTim.
Join Our Roundtable Community For Free!
Share your takes, connect with our Roundtable writers, and talk sports with fellow fans. Download the free Roundtable App today and stay closer to the conversation.
