Can Arch Manning's potential return ignite Texas against a surging Vanderbilt? The Longhorns fight for a critical win, but the Commodores are poised to make a statement.
The Texas Longhorns (6-2) face the Vanderbilt Commodores (7-1) on Saturday. While the Longhorns might be slim favorites for the game in Austin, few, if any, are assuming the team will win the game.
For starters, it's uncertain who will start at quarterback for Texas with Arch Manning in concussion protocol and a capable backup in Matthew Caldwell able to step in if necessary. Caldwell has shined in limited action, but Manning has flashed brilliance at various points this season.
The game is a must-win for Texas, but no more of a must-win game than the last two. The Longhorns limped to the finish line against the Kentucky Wildcats two weeks ago, sneaking away from the game with a 16-13 overtime win. They followed the performance with a 17-point fourth quarter comeback to get past the Mississippi State Bulldogs, 45-38, in another overtime battle.
Vanderbilt is the more consistent team to date this season. The Commodores have impressed several times with key wins over South Carolina, LSU and Missouri. Now they get a shot at Texas, with a big audience likely available to watch.
Saturday is Vanderbilt's College Football Playoff statement opportunity, and star quarterback Diego Pavia is poised for a potential Heisman moment in Austin.
Texas will need to play much better defensively against Vanderbilt than it did against Mississippi State when it last took the field. Mississippi State quarterback Blake Shapen torched the Longhorns' defense with 26 completions, 381 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions on 42 attempts.
Mississippi State Bulldogs running back Davon Booth (6) runs after a catch for a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Texas Longhorns at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field.Petre Thomas-Imagn ImagesFortunately for Texas, despite Pavia's strong year, he does not enter Saturday's game on fire. Pavia has yet to throw for over 200 yards in any of the last three games against Alabama, LSU and Missouri.
In his last game, Pavia completed just 10 of 19 passes for 129 yards, no touchdowns and an interception against the Missouri Tigers. Three games of subpar performance against top defenses is now a trend for Pavia. He will face a defense that, save for two games, has been nothing short of elite.
Vanderbilt has had success in close matchups. The Commodores defeated the Missouri Tigers 17-10 a week after taking down the LSU Tigers 31-24. Whether or not that means they are good in one-score games or will regress to the mean and lose their next such game is to be seen.
Texas has been inconsistent of late, but it has been too difficult to take down for their opponents the last two weeks. Despite being outplayed by both Mississippi State and Kentucky, the Longhorns simply refused to lose. They continue that trend this week.
Prediction: Texas 31, Vanderbilt 23