"Our schedule is real. It is a real football schedule," said Texas Longhorns head football coach Steve Sarkisian at SEC Media Days earlier this month.

On a literal sense, of course it's a real football schedule; this is the SEC. But the analytics say that it's among the most challenging of the entire 2026 season for any team.

Although they'll enter the new year again as a consensus top-5 roster in the land, the Longhorns have their work cut out for them to say the least in their hopes of hoisting a trophy at the end of the CFP.

We've seen how the ESPN computers think Texas will fare... and it's surprisingly strong considering such dialogue about the strength of the Horns' slate.

But what exactly will dictate each of these outcomes?

For an offseason overview of the schedule, we'll review each matchup and assess how Texas is favored based on previous scenarios and results, while of course acknowledging the impossibility of predicting what transpires in a five-month season that's still over a month away from starting.

READ MORE: Sark Says Texas Must Beat Georgia to Officially Rule the SEC

Matchup Predictor says Texas has a 98.4 percent chance of winning.

Meeting the Bobcats offers a near-sited friendly that's sure to get the Greek life on each campus off to a thrilling start to tailgate season, but that'll be all the fun. At least for Texas State.

Longhorns improve to 1-0 here, setting the table for Round 2 of the matchup everyone wants to see.

The Buckeyes (28.7) and Longhorns (26.9) own the top two spots on ESPN's FPI rankings. 

Last year, it was a narrow 14-7 loss in Columbus for the Longhorns to open the season. Quarterback Arch Manning began his tenure as the full-time starter with 17 completions on 30 attempts for 170 yards. It was the start of a lackluster stretch that Manning turned around on the back half of the schedule.

Can he carry that play into the beginning of 2026? How does Texas' reloaded secondary defend the precision of Heisman finalist Julian Sayin? Can they limit star wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (like they did in the 2024 CFP Semis) while also monitoring OSU's steady crop of all-world pass-catchers?

The computer picks Texas to move to 2-0 at just 53.7 percent odds, the Longhorns' most narrow finish of the season. It'll come down to these factors, among many.

Three home games to begin the year will do wonders to this team's confidence, especially as the home stand ends in a win over another in-state foe. With over a 98 percent prediction to win, Texas is 3-0 heading to its first road contest, and a brutal one at that.

The SEC's "UTs" face off at 11 a.m. CT, which could bode well for the Longhorns over anything else.

Rather surprisingly, Texas is given the upper hand with in a 3-to-1 odds, or greater than 75 percent likelihood for victory.

The Volunteers were the conference's most prolific scoring offense a year ago, but the Longhorns rest in the fact of returning one of college football's most elite pass rushers, junior EDGE Colin Simmons.

An unblemished record entering the Red River Rivalry could be a dangerous for either side.

A year ago, Texas was coming off its ugly SEC-opening loss in the swamp to Florida. The defense answered with vengeance, limiting the Sooners to just six points.

The entire team will need to be sharp in order to stay undefeated at this stage. The matchup predictor gives Texas a 75.6 percent chance to do so against the conference's leading scoring defense from 2025.

The new-look Gators now have to come to Austin for Texas to exact its revenge of last season. The numbers, once again, give the Horns an advantage at nearly 88 percent.

Florida is currently hosting a competition for the starting quarterback spot after DJ Lagway took his talents back home to Waco. Texas will have a good grasp of either Aaron Philo or Tramell Jones at this point in the schedule, but a change could always be in the cards and shake up the team's preparation.

Texas can't afford to let the Bulldogs take them to overtime again in 2026. Once again, having a home-field advantage here bodes well. ESPN picks the Longhorns moving to 7-0 with ease at 95.8 percent ... but the games from here grow in weight, surpassing the expectations on paper.

Texas is given an 81.9 percent chance of victory here on the road, the Longhorns' first trip to Columbia since joining the SEC.

The Tigers were one of the best passing defenses in the conference a year ago, meaning Manning will need to stay sharp as Texas' undefeated season, and further, Manning's case as a top NFL Draft quarterback prospect, hang in the balance.

Perhaps the most significant point in Texas' season overall. It's a night game in Baton Rouge, what would you expect?

And from inside the locker room, what more could you want?

The 64 percent mark says Texas rises to the occasion, but only barely in comparison to the rest of the predictions.

READ MORE: Colin Simmons is Thinking National Title, Not Just NFL

The Longhorns are given a 95.5 percent chance to win over the Razorbacks. Manning & Co. hung 52 on the hogs in 2025 ... but the defense surrendered 37.

A Thanksgiving night affair in the Lone Star Showdown with potentially an undefeated season, conference championship berth and likely CFP odds weighing heavy.

Marcel Reed is back to fight for the Aggies' first win over their rivals since the series' resurrection, but Manning has his eyes set on a 4-0 record over his two years as the full-time starter against Texas' most hated nemeses.

"Texas doesn’t need to finish undefeated to reach the College Football Playoff," says our own Timm Hamm. "A loss at Ohio State, LSU or Texas A&M could be survivable if the Longhorns avoid the upset that wrecked their postseason hopes last year.

This may be as "real" of a schedule as you can get, but the Longhorns are being picked to handle business.