After a loss at Georgia, Texas basketball’s NCAA Tournament hopes hinge on the final four games. How many wins does Sean Miller’s team need?
Texas walked into Athens with momentum. They walked out with questions.
The loss to Georgia didn’t crush the Longhorns’ NCAA Tournament hopes, but it definitely tightened the margin for error.
After ripping off five straight wins before the Bulldogs showdown, Texas had built real buzz in March Madness conversations. Now? The math gets interesting.
According to Bart Torvik’s projections, Texas still holds a 72.7 percent chance of making the NCAA Tournament. That’s solid, but not comfortable. With four regular-season games remaining, the Longhorns likely need at least one more high-quality win to feel secure.
Wednesday’s home matchup against Florida is enormous.
A win over the Gators could push Texas’ tournament probability north of 90 percent, essentially putting Sean Miller’s squad in the driver’s seat. Lose that one, and suddenly road trips to Texas A&M and Arkansas look like must-steal opportunities before closing the regular season against Oklahoma.
Realistically, 2-2 down the stretch should punch Texas’ ticket to the Field of 68. A 1-3 finish, especially if the lone win is against Oklahoma, might require at least one victory in the SEC Tournament to remove all doubt.
The encouraging part? Texas is playing its best basketball of the season.
Sean Miller’s first year in Austin had turbulence early, but the Longhorns have caught fire behind Dailyn Swain’s scoring punch, Matas Vokietaitis’ inside presence and Jordan Pope’s steady backcourt play.
Over the last six games, Texas has looked like a team no one wants to see in March.
And if they get in? The Longhorns’ elite offensive efficiency gives them real upset potential.
It starts Wednesday night in Austin. Beat Florida, and the conversation changes. Lose, and the pressure ramps up fast.