Tough losses loom, but key wins and strong metrics give Texas a fighting chance. Can they secure their March Madness bid?
For the second straight season, the Texas men's basketball team sits firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble, a stressful place to be as we near the month of February.
In a lot of ways, the Longhorns are playing with house money. After opening Southeastern Conference play with two straight losses, March Madness wasn't even a consideration for Texas.
However, since then, the Longhorns have picked up three key wins against ranked opponents, beefing up their resume, and giving them a fighting chance to make the tournament.
And now that they're in this position, they might as well go for it.
Texas current position varies between different bracketology experts. According to ESPN's Joe Lunardi, the Longhorns are the last team in the field of 68. But as Bracket Matrix's consensus bracket shows us, only 43/96 bracketologists brackets include Texas.
In short, the Longhorns have lots of work to do to solidify their place in the tournament.
The good news for Texas is that its putting itself in a great position in a couple of important metrics that the committee uses.
The Longhorns have landed three Quadrant 1 wins so far this season(Alabama, Vanderbilt, NC State) showing the committee that they're capable of beating the best. Their recent win over Georgia also has potential to become a Quad 1 victory(if Georgia rises into the top 30 of the NET rankings).
Texas is also in a favorable position with the NCAA's NET Ranking and KenPom's College Basketball Rating. The NET system has the Longhorns ranked at 38, while KenPom's ratings have them at 36.
While the season is not far from its end, Texas does have plenty more opportunities to pick up Quad 1 or 2 wins.
The Longhorns still have matchups against ranked opponents in Arkansas and Florida, and away contests against Texas A&M and Georgia(away games have a higher threshold for Quad 1 or 2 victories)
If the committee only looked at good wins and NET rankings, Texas would be sitting pretty, but unfortunately, there are a couple of other metrics that don't view the Longhorns as favorably.
The committee has been known to heavily penalize teams for bad losses(aka Quad 3 or 4 losses). Texas has one thanks to its loss at home to Mississippi State (106 in the NET rankings).
That's a tough blemish for anyone to look past.
Another metric going against the Longhorns is their poor non-conference strength of schedule, which ranks 291st out of 365 teams according to KenPom.
Both of those stats will be under heavy scrutiny if Texas is to remain on the bubble come March. The best way for it to overcome its resume killers is to leave no doubt.
The Longhorns have 11 games plus the SEC Tournament to cement themselves a spot in March Madness.
That's plenty of time to make sure they don't have to sweat it out on Selection Sunday.