Opinion: Why Texas Probably Can't Go 9-3 and Make the College Football Playoff

The Texas Longhorns are the No. 11 ranked team in the initial College Football Playoff Rankings for the 2025 season. The initial ranking is a huge victory for the Longhorns who many thought were done in the playoff race prior to Saturday's win over Vanderbilt.

The resume is strong for the team in burnt orange. Texas has wins over two playoff contenders in No. 12 Oklahoma and No. 16 Vanderbilt. There aren't many others who boast such a resume despite the team's two early losses.

Texas lost to the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes by a score in the season opener. That loss won't hurt the team, but the other loss will.

The Longhorns fell to the then 1-3 Florida Gators who would fire their head coach not long after the game.

Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian has helped right the ship in 2025 with huge wins over Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. The Longhorns are a different team since their 3-2 start. Their quarterback Arch Manning is a different player in his own right. Still the Florida loss looms large.

Behind Texas in the College Football Playoff rankings are the No. 12 Oklahoma Sooners. Oklahoma finishes the season with a favorable draw. 

The first game for Oklahoma is the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide, but afterward, they face a diminished Missouri Tigers squad and an LSU team that just fired its head coach Brian Kelly. Perhaps the likelihood is the Sooners win two of three, and should they win out the margin for error shrinks even more for Texas.

The Longhorns still have two Top 5 foes ahead in No. 5 Georgia and No. 3 Texas A&M. And while most would give the team a pass for splitting the two big games with a 1-1 record, there isn't a wide enough gap between Texas and Oklahoma to assume a 9-3 Texas squad would surpass a 10-2 Oklahoma team, even if the Longhorns had the more impressive resume and head-to-head advantage.

There are a few teams Texas could surpass should they win out. No. 7 BYU, No. 8 Texas Tech, No. 9 Oregon and No. 10 Notre Dame all lack the resume Texas has this season. Presumably the Longhorns could and should move past a one-loss BYU or Texas Tech should they lock down wins over four Top 20 teams, and two top five teams, in Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Georgia and Texas A&M. But they can't count on 9-3 being enough.

Notre Dame and Oregon are ahead of Texas and likely to finish around 10-2. With Oklahoma, Utah, Vanderbilt and others likely to push for a two-loss finish, Texas can ill afford to put their playoff hopes to chance.

The only way to ensure they get across the finish line is to defeat No. 3 Texas A&M and No. 5 Georgia. But should they make it happen, we could see Texas vault itself to No. 7 or higher.

Texas will next travel to face Georgia on Nov. 15.