Oregon opens 2026 staring straight at a problem: Texas Tech is built like a complete team.
The Red Raiders sit top-10 nationally in both total offense and total defense, which means there's no easy "pick-on-this" weakness to spam for four quarters.
If the Ducks want to advance out of the College Football Playoff quarterfinal in the Orange Bowl, they're going to have to win the game the hard way, by controlling possession, protecting the football, and surviving a star defender who can wreck an entire plan by himself.
The good news for Oregon is simple.
Texas Tech is not invincible. The Red Raiders did lose once this season - and it was to an unranked team - proof that even a balanced, efficient roster can be dragged into discomfort if the opponent forces the script.
Oregon's offense has been rolling lately, and if the Ducks can pair that with a full four-quarter defensive performance, this has the makings of a classic.
Here's what Oregon has to do to beat Texas Tech.
Oregon has to own the ball. If you’re looking for a blueprint, start with the one game Texas Tech dropped. Arizona State pulled off the upset by playing keep-away and keeping the game clean.
The Sun Devils won time of possession by nearly 15 minutes, limiting Tech's opportunities and forcing the Red Raiders to maximize fewer drives.
That's the lane Oregon can realistically drive through. The Ducks have an elite rushing attack capable of grinding the clock and shortening the game. Even though the playoff opener leaned more on the air game for Will Stein's unit, Oregon’s identity all season has been built around Noah Whittington and a running back room that can take the air out of a defense.
The more Oregon runs the ball effectively, the fewer snaps Texas Tech’s top-10 offense gets - and the more pressure shifts onto the Red Raiders to be perfect with limited chances.
If Oregon lets this game turn into a possession-for-possession track meet, it's doing Texas Tech a favor.
Oregon has to hold on tight. In games where both teams can score and both defenses are strong, turnovers aren't just "important." They’re decisive. Arizona State didn't just sit on the ball in its upset, it also won the turnover battle, stealing extra possessions and forcing Texas Tech to play from behind its normal efficiency.
Dan Lanning has emphasized takeaways all season, but this matchup demands that Oregon be ruthless about it.
The Ducks can’t give away free drives with careless ball security, and they'll need to manufacture mistakes from a Tech team that rarely beats itself. That's the hard part.
Texas Tech thrives in the same categories Oregon wants to lean on—discipline, turnover margin, and efficient execution.
That's why Oregon's defense has to play with intent. Punching at the ball, rallying to tackles, and baiting throws into coverage are not "nice-to-haves" in this game - they're the difference between winning 31-27 and losing 31-27.
Oregon has to account for Jacob Rodriguez on every snap.
Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez isn't just the engine of the Red Raiders' defense - he's the kind of defender who turns games into personal highlight reels.
Defensive players rarely crack the end-of-season award conversation, so it says plenty that Rodriguez finished fifth in Heisman Trophy voting.
He's a problem in every phase ... downhill against the run, disruptive as a blitzer, and dangerous in coverage.
For Oregon, that means the protection plan has to be the sharpest it's been all year. Dante Moore can't spend the night throwing under pressure because Rodriguez is living in the A-gaps or timing blitzes off the edge.
And in the passing game, Moore has to be careful attacking the middle of the field - Rodriguez has four interceptions this season, and he's exactly the type of linebacker who turns a safe glance route into a momentum-flipping takeaway.
Oregon probably can't erase Rodriguez completely, but the Ducks absolutely cannot allow him to leave fingerprints on the entire game. Make him work through traffic. Chip him. Influence him with motion. Force Tech to win with someone else as the headliner.
Oregon can beat Texas Tech, but only if it's willing to play a controlled, physical game that limits possessions, protects the football, and survives a defender who can break drives by himself.
If the Ducks do those three things - and if their defense can look like it did in the first half last week for a full four quarters - the Orange Bowl could be the kind of game people are still arguing about years from now.