The Buffalo Bills sit near the top of early Super Bowl 61 odds, but roster uncertainty makes that confidence hard to share right now.
When the early odds for Super Bowl 61 dropped earlier this week, it wasn't surprising to see the Seattle Seahawks sitting at the top. It also wasn't too surprising to see the Los Angeles Rams sitting second.
No, the first surprise didn't come until the third-most favored team.
According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the Buffalo Bills' odds to win it all next year sit at +1200. That's tied with the Baltimore Ravens for the best odds in the AFC, and third-highest in the NFL.
On paper, it looks like respect. In reality, it raises a fair question.
Are the Bills really that good?
Josh Allen’s presence alone keeps Buffalo near the top of the odds every year, and sportsbooks know that. As long as he’s under center, the Bills are going to be viewed as contenders. But once you get past the quarterback, things become unclear
On the one side, these odds say more about the state of the AFC than they do about Buffalo. There isn’t a dominant team separating itself. That vacuum pushes proven quarterbacks and familiar contenders toward the top of the board, even if there are real flaws within the roster.
On the other hand, it’s easy to argue the Bills were closer than their playoff exit suggests. The divisional-round loss to the Denver Broncos will be remembered for how it ended, but it’s also true that a single play or a single decision going the other way could have put Buffalo on a path to the Super Bowl. Even with Allen playing poorly by his standards in that game, the Bills were still right there.
That’s where the optimism comes from.
For the most part, Buffalo beats the teams it's supposed to beat while hanging around in games where it didn’t play its best. And despite obvious roster issues, it was one win away from the AFC Championship Game. That doesn’t sound like a team that’s far off.
But skepticism is fair, too.
This roster is filled with question marks. The wide receiver group needs work, the pass rush needs help, linebacker is unsettled with key decisions looming, the secondary could look very different next season, the offensive line has pending free agents, and even tight end, once considered stable, has uncertainty attached to it.
Take Allen off the roster, and it’s hard to argue this is anything more than a middling team. He covers up a lot, which has been the case for years.
The counter to that is simple. Even with below-average production at wide receiver and defensive end last season, the Bills were still a play away from advancing. If those areas improve even marginally, the argument goes, the team gets better almost by default.
That’s not blind optimism. That’s math.
Still, projecting the Bills as one of the top Super Bowl favorites right now feels premature. Too much is unresolved. Free agency hasn’t started, and trades haven’t happened. There’s no clear picture of what this roster will look like in September.
That’s why these odds feel more like an invitation than a statement. Sportsbooks want people to buy in early, before the uncertainty clears. For a lot of fans, and probably bettors too, it’s hard to do that until March answers a few questions.
The Bills might be that good. They might not.
Right now, the odds say they are. The roster says it still needs to prove it.
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