The Buffalo Bills still have a slight chance to win the AFC East, but how do the chips have to fall for them to win the division for a sixth-straight season.
The Buffalo Bills came out of Foxborough with their biggest win of the season on Sunday, beating the New England Patriots 35-31 after trailing by 21 points. While the win moved the team closer to clinching a playoff spot for the seventh-straight season, it also kept their AFC East hopes alive for at least another couple of weeks.
With the win, Buffalo moved to 10-4 and now sit a game behind the 11-3 Patriots in the division. And though the chances of winning the division sit at just 29% as of December 15, it's still a lot better than the 8% it was at just a couple of weeks ago.
But knowing the odds are still quite long, what does Buffalo need to do in order to win a sixth-straight AFC East title?
First, it's starts with winning the games in front of you. While the best chance comes in the form of winning out, the Bills could afford to drop a game to the Philadelphia Eagles depending on what New England does. The game they can't lose is Week 18's matchup against the New York Jets.
That's because of the division record tiebreaker. Right now, the Bills are 3-2 in the AFC East. A win of over the Jets would put them at 4-2, which is the minimum needed to have a chance.
So, you know what the Bills have to do but what will the Patriots need to do in order to lose the division to Buffalo? In short, they have to lose one of their two remaining divisional games against either the Jets or Miami Dolphins if the Bills win out. Should the Bills drop one of their next two games, the Patriots have to lose two of their three games.
If all of that happens, and the Bills end up tied with the Patriots in total record (12-5) and divisional record (4-2), then it starts to go through other tiebreakers.
How Do The Tiebreakers Fall?
After head-to-head and division record, the next tiebreaker is common opponents. As of now, they are both 6-1 with a common opponent left---Browns for Buffalo and Ravens for New England. To win this tiebreaker, the Bills need to beat Cleveland and have the Patriots lose to the Ravens. With both matchups happening in Week 16, this tie breaker will be settled by then.
Should they end up tied in common opponents, which is possible, it then moves to conference record. The Bills are 7-3 in the AFC with two games left in the conference while the Patriots are 6-3. For Buffalo to hold this tiebreaker, they need to beat both the Browns and Jets and see New England lose just one of the divisional games.
So, to wrap it with a bow, the best path for the Bills is to win out and have the Patriots lose one of their two divisional matchups. Aside from that, there are a couple more mathematical options albeit unlikely.
Should things fall into place, Buffalo will, once again, be the kings of the AFC East. And if recent games have been any indication, the one thing you shouldn't do is count the Buffalo Bills out until the clock hits zero.