The way this season has gone, the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC is wide open, but that can be both good and bad for the Bills.
There’s something different about the AFC this season, and for the first time in a while, that difference might actually work in the Bills’ favor.
This doesn’t feel like a conference with an inevitable ending. There’s no Joe Burrow and no Patrick Mahomes looming over the field. Instead, it’s chaos; the kind where every team looks capable one week and vulnerable the next. Jacksonville going into Denver and making one of the league’s best defenses look ordinary was the latest reminder that no one is untouchable.
That’s what makes this moment so important for Buffalo.
The Bills are staring at a playoff picture where anything feels possible, but that doesn’t mean every path is equal. Some matchups feel survivable. Others feel like traps. And the difference between them could come down to seeding.
At the top of the avoid-at-all-costs list is landing as the sixth or seventh seed. That road leads to places the Bills don’t want to revisit early on like New England or Jacksonville. The Jaguars, in particular, have quietly turned into the scariest team no one wants to talk about. Since flipping the switch after blowing a massive lead to Houston, the Jaguars have looked relentless. They’re physical, balanced, and playing with confidence. That’s not a team you want to see in Round 1, especially on the road.
Houston deserves mention here too. Their defense is nasty, fast, and disruptive. The Bills saw that firsthand. While the Texans haven’t been dominant every week, they’re the type of team that can turn a playoff game into a grind, and that’s never comfortable.
Which brings the conversation back to seeding, and specifically, the No. 5 spot.
If the Bills can win out, that fifth seed is theirs. The math works. Houston and the Chargers still have to play each other, guaranteeing a loss for one of them. Win out, and Buffalo jumps the line. Anything less, and they’re probably stuck traveling somewhere unpleasant.
The appeal of the five seed isn’t just about avoiding teams, it’s about opportunity. That path likely sends Buffalo to Pittsburgh. No one is pretending that’s easy, but it might be as close as the Bills can get to a home playoff game without actually hosting one. Bills Mafia travels, and they’ve taken over Heinz Field before. If there’s a road environment Buffalo can handle, that’s it.
More importantly, the AFC is so wide open that a five seed could realistically host a divisional-round game. It sounds wild, but it’s not far-fetched. There’s a real chance the lower seeds knock out the two and three seeds. Nothing about this conference would make that shocking.
There is, however, one team that still gives pause: Baltimore.
Even with all the late-game collapses, questionable decisions, and general weirdness surrounding the Ravens, Lamar Jackson changes everything. He’s the quarterback in the AFC—not named Josh Allen—who scares people the most. Not because Baltimore has been flawless, far from it, but because Jackson breaks structure. And against a Bills defense that has struggled to stop the run, that’s dangerous.
If Baltimore sneaks in, that’s a matchup Buffalo would rather delay as long as possible.
So, this is where things stand. The AFC is a mess. A fascinating mess. And the Bills are right in the middle of it, with a chance to shape their own path instead of reacting to it.
Win out, and the door opens. Lose, and the road gets much harder.
For once, it really does feel like everything is on the table, and that’s exactly why the next two weeks matter so much.