Despite a top seed, Broncos' playoff hopes hinge on overcoming a weak schedule and inconsistent offense against top contenders.
The No. 1 seed Denver Broncos face the No. 6 seed Buffalo Bills on Saturday with the winner advancing to the AFC title game.
This is a rematch from last year's postseason, where Josh Allen and the Bills frustrated the Broncos and sent Sean Payton's team home early.
The Broncos have high hopes ahead of their first playoff game in 2026, but there are plenty of reasons to be concerned about this team.
NFL.com released confidence rankings for each team entering the Divisional Round, and the Broncos fell in at No. 7, which is second-to-last behind the San Francisco 49ers.
Here's what Tom Blair wrote about the Broncos ranking.
"This probably seems pretty low for a team that lost three games all year and gripped the top spot in the AFC standings for the final five weeks of the regular season. Their defense is a force (fifth in the NFL in EPA per play in the regular season), and their offense is respectable (10th in EPA per play). So what gives? Well, their schedule to date featured just six games against playoff-qualifying opponents, including two of their losses -- and it's not like they rampaged through the year, compiling a league-high 11 one-score wins and a point differential (+90) that stands below the rest of the surviving AFC field (+170 for the Patriots, +116 for the Bills and +109 for the Texans). Then there's Bo Nix, who didn't exactly dazzle down the stretch, throwing more TD passes than picks in two of his last nine games leading into his second career postseason start. The advantages of being the No. 1 seed are real, but can Denver rip off another winning streak against more dominant, experienced opponents, starting this weekend with the Bills? We have to pencil in a big, fat "TBD" for now, which is why the Broncos sit here."
The Broncos have a confidence score of 12 points out of 40 and their Super Bowl odds, courtesy of DraftKings, are at +700 entering the game against the Bills.
Will second-year QB Bo Nix live up to the hype and deliver on the big stage? Will the talented Broncos defense play at a high level against a dominant Bills offense that scored 31 points on them a year ago?
Again, there are a lot of questions, and if the Broncos win, they will face either the Patriots or Texans, with either team presenting a different challenge.