Patriots boast a dominant offense and defense, while the Chargers struggle with injuries and turnovers. Can New England's rushing attack overwhelm LA's defense?
Welcome back to something I used to do a very long time ago. Before each Los Angeles Chargers playoff game, I will write one post like this and another, much more optimistic, post. These are not meant to be predictions as much as they're meant to tell the beginning of whichever story comes true. If the Chargers lose, this will likely be why.
The New England Patriots are better than the Los Angeles Chargers. We've been over this.
I'm not sure if that's been true every moment of the season, but it's true now and it was true over the course of the season, which is why the Chargers are the #7 seed (out of 7 teams) in the AFC and the Patriots are playing a home game.
The Patriots have a head coach with a proven track record of success and an MVP candidate at QB. They have a top 5 offense that appears to be quite healthy (outside of an illness that has caused about half of their offensive line to miss practice this week) and a top 10 defense that is completely healthy. They're gone 12-1 in their last 13 games.
While playing the Patriots may have been the preferred path to playing against the Denver Broncos two weeks in a row, that doesn't mean that the Chargers belong in the same conversation with New England.
The Chargers are 3-4 over their last 7 games. Their QB is playing with a broken hand and is amongst the league leaders in pressure rate and hits, meaning his offensive line has been about as effective a shield from pass rushers as Swiss cheese.
While the Chargers boast a top 5 defense, a lot of that has been because of their ability to force turnovers. They forced 10 of them in the four games before the Week 18 game where starters were rested. The Patriots offense have made holding onto the ball a key tenet of their offense, giving it away just 4 times over their last 7 games.
If it's not going to be the turnovers, the key to this game is likely to be the Patriots running attack against the Chargers defense.
If you take out the overtime win against the Eagles, the Chargers defense has held opponents under 100 total rushing yards in each of their last six wins. When teams are able to get over the century mark on the ground against them, their record is 3-6 (including the win over Philadelphia).
The Patriots have rushed for over 100 total yards in 9 of their last 11 games. They went for over 240 rushing yards twice over the last month of the season, a side effect of peak production from veteran RB Rhamondre Stevenson and rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson.
I'm not sure how the Chargers plan on approaching this game against the Patriots, because every avenue they usually walk down seems blocked. That's why it's hard to believe they're going to win.