Despite losing to the Texans, the Chargers are headed to the playoffs with multiple paths ahead. With seeding still undecided, Los Angeles could face Pittsburgh, Jacksonville or New England on Wild Card Weekend as they look to finally rewrite their postseason story.
The Los Angeles Chargers suffered a tough 20–16 loss to the Houston Texans on Saturday, officially ending their hopes of winning the AFC West. Despite the setback, Justin Herbert and the Chargers will still have another opportunity to break through in the postseason—something that has lingered over the franchise ever since their infamous collapse against Jacksonville a few seasons ago. With one week remaining in the regular season, the big question now becomes: who could the Chargers face during Wild Card Weekend?
The Chargers’ exact playoff seeding remains up in the air and will be dependent on several factors. Head coach Jim Harbaugh will have to weigh what matters most heading into Week 18: playoff positioning or rest. A win on Sunday would lock the Chargers into either the No. 5 or No. 6 seed, while a loss could drop them all the way to No. 7. In an AFC that feels as wide open as it has in years, Harbaugh may ultimately decide that having his roster as healthy as possible outweighs the benefits of marginal seeding advantages.
Complicating matters further, the Denver Broncos are unlikely to help the Chargers. Denver is locked in a tight race with the New England Patriots for a first-round bye, meaning they will be motivated to play their starters and push for a win.
If the Chargers manage to leave Denver with a Week 18 victory and the Indianapolis Colts upset the Texans, Los Angeles would slot into the No. 5 seed. In that scenario, the Chargers would likely face either the Pittsburgh Steelers or the Baltimore Ravens. In a perfect world, a matchup with the Steelers would be ideal. Jesse Minter’s defense has consistently thrived against immobile quarterbacks. In their Week 10 matchup earlier this season, the Chargers defense completely suffocated Aaron Rodgers, intercepting him twice and recording three sacks.
The more realistic outcome, however, is that the Chargers end up as either the sixth or seventh seed. If they remain in the No. 6 spot, their most likely opponent would be the Jacksonville Jaguars. This matchup would provide Los Angeles with a chance at redemption—not only for their loss earlier this season, but also for their devastating playoff collapse in 2023. When these teams met in November, the Chargers were overwhelmed in all three phases. Still, with the defense playing at a much higher level now, this rematch could be an opportunity to silence critics and exorcise some lingering demons.
If Harbaugh elects to rest his starters in Week 18, the Chargers would likely slide to the No. 7 seed and draw the New England Patriots. Second year quarterback Drake Maye has emerged as a legitimate MVP candidate, leading a Patriots offense that has looked nearly unstoppable at times. Even so, this matchup may not be as daunting as it appears. Minter has already proven his ability to slow elite offenses, most notably when he held the Dallas Cowboys to just 17 points earlier this season. Additionally, New England does not generate consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks, which could be a major advantage for a Chargers team that has struggled to protect Herbert.
Regardless of how the final week shakes out, one thing is clear: the Chargers will enter the playoffs with unfinished business. Whether it’s redemption against Jacksonville, a chess match with Pittsburgh or a chance to upset New England, Los Angeles has an opportunity to redefine its postseason narrative. The path won’t be easy—but for the first time in years, it feels like the Chargers are built to handle it.