With the playoff picture taking shape, the Chargers may be better off losing to Denver. A loss likely sets up a favorable matchup with New England, while a win could send them against a red-hot Jaguars team that’s already given them trouble.
The Los Angeles Chargers will face the Denver Broncos on Sunday in a game where the Bolts technically have a chance to play spoiler. However, head coach Jim Harbaugh has made it clear that winning this game is not the organization’s top priority. The Broncos, on the other hand, need a victory to clinch the No. 1 seed in the conference and secure a first-round bye.
If the Chargers want to ruin that dream for their AFC West rivals, they will have to do so with Trey Lance under center, as Justin Herbert is expected to sit. With the playoff picture becoming clearer, the question becomes unavoidable: are the Chargers better off winning or losing this game?
Los Angeles will enter Denver as heavy underdogs, and for good reason. Not only will Herbert be sidelined, but several other key starters are also expected to rest. Meanwhile, the Broncos boast one of the league’s most formidable defenses, capable of giving even elite offenses serious trouble.
If the Chargers lose on Sunday, they would likely face the New England Patriots in the Wild Card round. New England owns an impressive 13–3 record, but that mark comes with some context. The Patriots have played just three games this season against teams over .500, going 1–2 in those matchups. While rookie quarterback Drake Maye has performed at an MVP-caliber level, much of that success has come against relatively soft competition.
From a matchup standpoint, New England could be favorable for Los Angeles. The Patriots are not known for generating consistent pressure, ranking 24th in the NFL in sacks, according to ESPN. That is welcome news for a Chargers offensive line that has struggled in pass protection for much of the season. Greg Roman’s offense has shown flashes, but frequent pocket collapses have often stalled drives.
New England’s secondary is also vulnerable, ranking 22nd in the league with just nine interceptions. If Herbert returns healthy for the postseason, the Chargers would likely feel confident attacking a defense that lacks both pass rush and ball-hawking ability.
However, if Trey Lance somehow pulls off an upset in Denver, the Chargers would likely draw the Jacksonville Jaguars instead. While Jacksonville’s record is less imposing than New England’s, the matchup presents far more concern. The Chargers were already blown out by the Jaguars earlier this season, and head coach Liam Coen appears to have had consistent success against Jesse Minter’s defenses dating back to last year.
Jacksonville is also one of the hottest teams in the league, riding a seven-game winning streak into the postseason. Their offensive rhythm, combined with a coaching staff that seems to have schematic answers for Los Angeles, would make them a dangerous Wild Card opponent.
In the end, while the idea of playing spoiler against a division rival is tempting, the Chargers may be better served by taking the long view. A loss on Sunday could lead to a more favorable playoff matchup, allowing a healthier Chargers team to exploit New England’s weaknesses rather than walking into a buzzsaw against a red-hot Jacksonville squad.
Sometimes, the smartest win comes from knowing when not to chase one.