The AFC West is shaping up to be a three-team battle in 2026. The Chargers, Broncos, and Chiefs all have legitimate claims to the division crown. With Justin Herbert leading the way and Patrick Mahomes looming, the road to the top will be fiercely contested.
The Chargers finished second in the AFC West in 2025, just behind the Broncos. That alone tells you how competitive this division has become. There’s no more rebuilding talk. No more “maybe next year.” The Chargers are in the mix right now, and 2026 feels like a season where they either take control — or watch someone else grab it.
Let’s start with Denver.
The Broncos edged out the division in 2025, but here’s the part that matters: Justin Herbert has never lost to Bo Nix. That isn’t a small detail. Quarterback matchups define this league, especially in the AFC West. As good as Denver’s defense can be, and as well-coached as they are, they haven’t shown they can solve Herbert when it matters. Until that changes, it’s hard to look at the Broncos and feel intimidated.
That doesn’t mean Denver isn’t legit. They are. They play physical, disciplined football and clearly believe they’ve closed the gap. But from the Chargers’ perspective, there shouldn’t be fear. There should be confidence. Herbert gives you that edge in divisional games, and historically he’s proven it against Nix.
The bigger question mark in this division is Kansas City.
If Patrick Mahomes is back and fully healthy in 2026, everything changes. The Chiefs haven’t gone anywhere — they’ve just been waiting for the right moment to reclaim control. Mahomes has owned this division for years, and even in down stretches, you never truly count him out. A healthy Mahomes with something to prove? That’s dangerous.
The Chargers have competed well against Kansas City in recent seasons, but competing and winning the division are two different things. If Mahomes returns to MVP form, the path to an AFC West title gets a lot steeper. That rivalry could once again determine who sits on top.
Then there’s Las Vegas.
The Raiders made an interesting move by hiring Klint Kubiak as head coach. That suggests they want structure, balance and a quarterback-friendly system. If they draft Fernando Mendoza, which feels likely, they’ll at least have a direction. Mendoza has talent, and Kubiak’s system could help him develop quickly.
But let’s be realistic — they’re probably a year or two away. Rookie quarterbacks rarely elevate a team to immediate divisional contention, especially in a division this competitive. The Raiders may improve. They may even steal a couple games. But in 2026, they’re more likely to be building than battling for first place.
So where does that leave the Chargers?
Right in the middle of a three-team fight with Kansas City and Denver for the top of the AFC West.
If Herbert stays healthy and the roster continues to improve — especially along the offensive line and in the run game — the Chargers absolutely have the talent to win this division. They’ve already proven they can hang with everyone. The next step is consistency and finishing.
The AFC West in 2026 won’t be easy. It never is. But for the first time in a while, it feels like the Chargers aren’t chasing. They’re contending — and they should expect to win it.