Justin Herbert has all the tools to be the NFL’s best quarterback, but playoff success remains the missing piece. With everything in place, this season could finally be the one where he proves he belongs at the very top.
There’s no denying that Justin Herbert has everything you look for in a franchise quarterback. The size, the arm talent, the mobility—it’s all there. Turn on the tape and you’ll see a guy who can make every throw on the field and move like a modern dual-threat when he needs to. He’s already in the same conversation as Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson in terms of raw ability.
But being the best quarterback in the NFL isn’t just about talent. It’s about what happens when the lights are the brightest—and that’s where Herbert still has work to do.
From a regular season standpoint, Herbert has already proven he belongs. In 2024, he threw for nearly 4,000 yards with an absurd 23-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, one of the most efficient seasons we’ve seen in years. He’s protected the football, made smart decisions and shown growth under pressure. Even in 2025, despite dealing with injuries and inconsistent protection, he still put up strong numbers and earned Pro Bowl recognition.
The problem? The playoffs tell a completely different story.
Herbert is still searching for his first true postseason breakthrough, and it hasn’t just been bad luck—it’s been rough performances. He threw four interceptions in a wild-card loss to Houston, and followed that up with another disappointing showing in the 2026 playoffs, where the Chargers managed just three points in a loss to New England. That’s the gap right now between him and the elite tier.
Because when you look at guys like Mahomes, Allen and Jackson, they’ve all had signature playoff moments. Mahomes has built a dynasty. Allen has gone toe-to-toe with the best in the biggest games. Jackson has an MVP and continues to evolve as a postseason threat. Herbert hasn’t had that moment yet—the game where you walk away saying, “that’s the best quarterback in football.”
So what does he need to do?
First, he has to elevate in high-pressure situations. That doesn’t mean playing hero ball—it means staying composed, protecting the football and capitalizing on opportunities. The margin for error in the playoffs is razor thin, and turnovers have been his biggest issue when it matters most.
Second, he needs to take control of those defining moments late in games. We’ve seen flashes—game-winning drives, clutch throws—but the truly elite quarterbacks consistently close the door when it counts. That’s the next step for Herbert: turning “almost” into “undeniable.”
Third, this is about leadership as much as performance. With Jim Harbaugh now at the helm, the Chargers are building a tougher, more balanced identity. Herbert doesn’t need to do everything, but he does need to be the guy everyone leans on when things tighten up in January.
Because here’s the reality—he’s not far off.
Physically, he might be the most gifted quarterback in the league. Mentally, he’s grown every year. Statistically, he’s already elite. The only thing separating him from being the guy is postseason success.
And that’s why this upcoming season feels different.
The roster is improving. The system is more stable. The expectations are higher. Everything is lined up for Herbert to finally have that breakthrough moment.
If he delivers—if he turns a playoff run into a statement—there won’t be much left to debate.
This could be the year Justin Herbert stops being “right there” and becomes the standard.