The Indianapolis Colts will need a productive, clean performance from Daniel Jones to beat the Washington Commanders in London.
The Indianapolis Colts head to London for their Week 4 bout with the Washington Commanders this Sunday. Both teams enter this game at 1-2, coming off upset wins over perceived Super Bowl contenders.
For the Colts, it’s been an interesting start to the season, to say the least. The team has continually improved each and every game, suffering a blowout loss in Week 1, a close overtime loss in Week 2, and finally getting over the hump with a tight win at home in Week 3.
Last week’s win may have been an ugly one, but it still counts the same in the win column at the end of the day.
The Commanders offer up a bit of a different challenge in Week 4. They may not have the offensive talent of the Kansas City Chiefs/Baltimore Ravens or the defensive stardom of the Houston Texans, but they are a fast team that could surprise some people this season.
They are coming off an upset win over the defending champion Seattle Seahawks in a game where Marcus Mariota made the start at quarterback.
Looking at the advanced numbers of that upset, it’s certainly a game that the Seahawks would like to have back. They had more yards per play on offense and a much higher success rate, but the game ultimately came down to turnovers. Three costly Seattle turnovers, including an interception returned for a touchdown, led to the upset last Sunday.
Colts quarterback Daniel Jones has had his own issues with turnovers this season, totaling five through the first three games. He lost two fumbles and threw an interception against the Texans, with the final turnover nearly spelling doom for his team. He rebounded and ultimately led his team to a win, but he may not be as lucky against the Commanders.
Obviously, protecting the ball will be at the forefront of Jones’ mind, but he still needs to maintain his aggressive play this weekend. Even with the three turnovers last week, 19.5% of his total dropbacks resulted in a 15-plus-yard gain for the offense, compared to just 7.2% of such plays reaching that distance in the first two weeks. Jones needs to find a way to marry his aggressive play with limiting turnovers against a blitz-heavy Commanders’ defense.
Beyond protecting the football, the Commanders' defensive approach also suggests a day when Jones needs to carry the offense. The Commanders rank in the top three in blitz rate this season (over 40%), and that includes more than just passing downs. Defensive coordinator Daronte Jones also likes to stay aggressive on early downs, pressing gaps with elite athletes to make life difficult for opposing running backs.
As a result, the Commanders boast one of the NFL's top run defenses this season, ranking sixth in Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush against and holding teams to just 3.84 yards per carry. Rookie Sonny Styles is emerging as a true superstar, and the Commanders made life difficult for Jadarian Price and the Seahawks’ ground game on Sunday.
Jonathan Taylor should still be able to get his, but it may be another week of tough sledding for the star running back.
There is a silver lining, though. The Commanders have struggled against the pass this season, ranking 26th in EPA per pass against, 28th in yards per attempt allowed, and 30th in pass success rate allowed through three games. Former Colts safety Nick Cross is also out for this game, further hindering a secondary that has struggled all year.
The Commanders are a blitz-heavy defense that excels at stopping the run but has struggled to stop the pass this season. That feels like a recipe for Jones to step up and deliver for the offense this weekend. The Colts’ success in week four will come down to how well Jones plays against an overly aggressive defense and whether he can take advantage of a secondary that has struggled this year.
The Colts need 2025 Daniel Jones levels of command and efficiency to pull off the win in London. He’s shown flashes of brilliance this season, but it is now put up or shut up time for QB1 in Week 4.
