The Indianapolis Colts have a lot of proving to do to gain more believers in their postseason chances.
This has not been a normal offseason for the Indianapolis Colts.
Although they find themselves five years removed from their last playoff appearance, it finally feels as if jobs are on the line, especially after owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon declared after last season that the the sense of urgency for general manager Chris Ballard and head coach Shane Steichen "to deliver and perform has never been higher."
As a result, Ballard and Steichen have focused on retaining what they felt were the best parts of their existing roster, while adding more youth and athleticism, especially on defense. Have they made enough moves to convince experts that they're ready to return to the playoffs?
ESPN's NFL Football Power Index (FPI), which, in the most simple terms, evaluates how good a team is and predicts how successful they will be, has assigned the Colts the following marks:
2026 Record: 8.1-8.8 (21st in NFL/11th in AFC)
FPI: -0.6 (20th in NFL/10th in AFC)
Strength of Schedule (difficulty): 25th in NFL/11th in AFC
Chance of Playoffs: 35.8% (20th in NFL/11th in AFC)
Chance of Winning Division: 19.9% (19th in NFL/3rd in AFC South)
Chance of Making Divisional Round: 15.7% (20th in NFL/11th in AFC)
Chance of Making Conference Championship: 5.9% (T-20th in NFL/11th in AFC)
Chance of Making Super Bowl: 2.4% (20th in NFL/11th in AFC)
Chance of Winning Super Bowl: 0.8% (21st in in NFL/11th in AFC)
First and foremost, the Colts have a significant question mark at the most important position: quarterback.
Internally, they believe Daniel Jones, whom they re-signed to a two-year, $88 million contract this offseason, is the guy. However, he suffered a season-ending Achilles injury in Week 14 last season.
Although Jones is expected back for Week 1, it would be naive not to question how he'll look upon his return. After all, Jones' consistent injuries and inconsistent play got him axed by the New York Giants.
If Jones is the same player in 2026 who set multiple personal bests and was on pace for several others in 2025, then the Colts should be in good shape.
The other big mystery is how the defense will look.
The Colts parted ways with several notable players, including Zaire Franklin, Kenny Moore II, Nick Cross, Kwity Paye, Germaine Pratt, Samson Ebukam, and Neville Gallimore. For the most part, the Colts did replace the group with younger, higher-ceiling options, but will those new faces be ready to replace their predecessors' contributions so quickly?
Last, the Colts will be heavily reliant on players returning from injury.
Not only is Jones on his way back from his Achilles injury, but defensive tackle DeForest Buckner and cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward Sr. also missed much of last season and will have major roles in 2026.
The odds don't favor the Colts right now, but until they get on the field and play the games, no one truly knows what to expect.
