Colts Get Unkind Over/Under Prediction

The Indianapolis Colts have found themselves in a position in 2026 where almost all pressure is internal.

They haven't made the playoffs in the last five years, and their offseason moves didn't move the needle enough for many on the outside to declare they won't add a sixth straight year without the postseason.

Expectations from onlookers are relatively low, but expectations from ownership couldn't be higher.

"We have been very clear with Chris (Ballard) and Shane (Steichen) that giving them another opportunity means that the sense of urgency for them to deliver and perform has never been higher," Colts Owner & CEO Carlie Irsay-Gordon said about general manager Chris Ballard and head coach Shane Steichen right after the last season.

The Athletic's Vic Tafur recently picked the over/under betting line for each NFL team based on BetMGM's lines "as of the time the pick was made."

He was unkind to the Colts.

"Colts under 7.5 (+105)

"I sound like a broken record — wait, does anyone know what records are anymore? — but GM Chris Ballard is somehow back for a 10th year," Tafur wrote. "The Colts are coming off back to back 8-9 seasons and have had four winning seasons under Ballard. He seemed to get a winning lottery card in Daniel Jones last year, but the card was damaged, and the possible playoff payoff was put on hold.

"I pick the Colts under every season and cash in, and though the number is down to 7.5 this year, I am not scared after Ballard gave Alec Pierce $114 million."

Ballard is kind of known for building a roster good enough to be competitive, but lacking the umph at quarterback to get them over the hump, with the team falling apart altogether if the quarterback goes down.

To Tafur's credit, Ballard's Colts are 70-78-1 in his time with the team since 2017, with just two playoff appearances, and none since 2020. The act is wearing thin.

The Colts re-signing quarterback Daniel Jones and wide receiver Alec Pierce have been met with mixed reactions, although many believe the moves were necessary, but at too high of a cost.

Jones was given a two-year, $88 million deal, worth up to $100 million, including $49.49 million fully guaranteed. Pierce signed the richest free-agent wide receiver contract in NFL history: four years, $114 million, worth up to $116 million, including $60 million fully guaranteed.

While those are steep figures, the Colts have conviction that making those moves will be crucial to the team's success in 2026. They were still a major leap of faith.

This is Jones' second big-time contract extension in his career, but he's yet to play a full season in the NFL and is coming off an Achilles injury that cut his debut season in Indianapolis short in Week 14. He's expected to be present for Week 1, however.

Pierce has never been the top receiver for the Colts before and is coming off of his only 1,000-yard season. He, too, is recovering from surgery after having a procedure on his ankle that could keep him out at any time during training camp or into September.

The Colts are taking a risk they believe in, even if many others don't, but players like Jones, defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, and cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward Sr. coming back from injuries could make the difference that the Colts need to return to the postseason.