Unpacking the explosive claim that George Pickens commands a $40 million market value. Does the math truly add up for the Cowboys' star?
FRISCO - What does “market value” mean? And why are otherwise smart people thinking that its definition suddenly morphs into something new because it involves the Dallas Cowboys?
Dear Cowboys-lovin’ friends: Why is this so hard to understand regarding George Pickens’ “market value,” which is now suddenly - according to social media - vaulting to $40 million per year?
Where - $40 million per year - did that come from?
I’m no math major. But let’s do ECON 101, college-freshman level. By definition …
FACT 1: A ‘product’s’ (player) “market value” is NOT what the product thinks it’s/he’s worth.
It’s “the price at which a product can be bought or sold.”
FACT 2: Discussing a product’s “open-market value” when that product is not on the open market is moot.
FACT 3: Psychological self-affirmations aside … You are not worth what you “think you’re worth.” You are worth what somebody will pay you.
Do colleges not make Journalism majors take ECON 101?
So … when PFT’s Mike Florio announces that George Pickens “market value is $40 million a year”? I have no idea where he’s getting that number.
He tried to explain his “fuzzy math” in a visit with “Shan & RJ” on 105.3 The Fan” …
“The way they calculate the franchise tag,” he claimed, “lags behind the market. The market’s $40 million and the tag’s $28 million. So the Cowboys can say, ‘We’ll tag him this year and then tag him next year.’ …”
The second part of that statement is true: Dallas tagging Pickens for two straight years (with a 20-percent increase over the tag this year) equals $28 million plus $33.6 mil … totaling $60.6 million.
The Cowboys have contractual control. For two years. So Pickens’ real “value” is at $30.3 million APY.
Right?
Yet Florio claims, “So even for the second tag, it’s nearly $6.5 million below market value.”
And … he lost me.
Who says what “market value” is? A sportswriter? You? Me?
Nope. Nope. Nope.
The MARKET says.
(By the way, none of this is an indictment of “Shan & RJ’’ or of The Fan; my issue is with Florio, who is an interesting and high-profile guest … offering twisted information. That’s never the fault of the interviewee.)
The is clock ticking toward the opening of the NFL’s league year on March 11. By March 3, Pickens will get a franchise tag from the Cowboys, which will lock him up for next year.
A long-term contract can be negotiated between the sides from now until July 15. Pickens’ agent David Mulugheta can ask for the moon - Cincy’s Ja’Marr Chase has the biggest receiver deal at $40 mil, so that’s the moon - but “the moon’’ is not market value …
Because one season doesn’t make Pickens the best receiver in the NFL.
Pickens is a second-team All-Pro coming off his first-ever great season while trying to put his behavioral baggage behind him. None of that correlates to him become the highest-paid player in NFL history at his position.
Meanwhile …
Market value? Find me an NFL team that’ll even whisper to you/me that they’d pay Pickens a four-year deal at $160 million. (Psst: there’s no such team.)
Given just how good Pickens was for the Cowboys in 2025 - eighth in the NFL in catches at 93, third in yardage at 1,429, first in yards per reception at 15.4 while showing himself to be a co-WR1 with pal CeeDee Lamb (who makes $34 mil APY) - a payday is coming.
And so is an argument.
League insider Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network was also a guest on The Fan, and he noted, David Mulugheta does not like that tag. He is not a fan. He has had guys who have been on the tag—he does not like it. So, I don’t know what George Pickens is gonna do, I just know, historically, you may not see him for a bit. You want him for the offseason program? Good luck. Because generally, those guys do not sign in March. They sign in late August.
“If you tag Pickens and don’t do a deal, it is going to be a while. It’s gonna be a saga.”
That’s too bad. “Saga’’ is bad. “Messy’’ is bad. But at least I can clear up one aspect of that mess: “Market value’’ isn’t what I say it is. It’s what the market says it is.
And rumors aside … there’s no $40 million market for George Pickens.