There are a handful of scenarios at play for the Cowboys and Pickens, but which one will happen?
The Dallas Cowboys know they have a star player on their hands in George Pickens, but the problem is that he's going to be expensive to keep around.
Of course, we know the Cowboys have the cap space (if they choose) to let him play on the $28 million franchise tag in 2026. Which is why a long-term deal is the easy way for Dallas to keep Pickens and get added help to improve the defense.
But there are a host of scenarios we have heard thrown around over the past month regarding George's future.
There's been the tag-and-trade, the long-term deal, and the franchise tag.
In truth, there's only one acceptable scenario for Cowboys Nation, and that's for Pickens to sign a long-term deal.
For Dallas, as our own Mike Fisher has reported since November 27, the franchise tag is the "easy" path.
But Fish is among three prominent Dallas insiders who suggest that the tag might be as far as this goes.
From Fisher: "A long-term deal is so much harder to forge ... and look at the Cowboys' franchise tag history. People thinks it's more 'Weapon' than 'Tool', but ...
2002 - Flozell Adams
2008 - Ken Hamlin
2012 - Anthony Spencer
2013 - Spencer again
2015 - Dez Bryant
2018 - DeMarcus Lawrence
2019 - Lawrence again
2020 - Dak Prescott
2021 - Prescott again
2022 - Dalton Schultz
2023 - Tony Pollard
"In that group, everybody (outside of Spencer, who sustained a career-ending injury in that second year) came away happy, healthy and rich.''
Agrees ESPN's Todd Archer on a long-term deal, "History is not on that side. The last time the Cowboys worked out a long-term deal with a first-time franchise tag player was receiver Dez Bryant in 2015 when he signed a five-year, $70 million deal that included $45 million guaranteed minutes before the July 15 deadline was about to hit.
And from The Athletic's Jon Machota? Yes, he's aligning with that when he was asked what the most likely scenario that plays out in 2026 for Pickens is.
“I think it'd be more likely on the tag,” Machota said on 105.3 The Fan. “That's just because of Cowboys' past. Sure, Jerry or Stephen could get with Dave Mulugheta next week out in Indianapolis or somewhere in the future, and maybe they knock something out that's team-friendly, but I just have my doubts about that. I think this thing drags on, and the Cowboys will be fine with, hey, we want to see another year of him.
"It's about $28 million guaranteed for that this upcoming season. I don't see George sitting out with that possibility of that money being out there. He might not be thrilled about it. But ultimately, I think he would end up playing under the tag."
That aligns with what most think will happen, even though Fish has said it would be better, cap-wise, for Dallas to sign Pickens long-term.
Still, given the year he had, both on and off the field, it might be worth seeing if Pickens can replicate his efforts in 2026.
If he can, and he is able to stay on the straight and narrow, and be a key piece of the offense yet again, then next offseason, maybe the Cowboys can revisit Pickens' contract.
But that will allow headlines and rumors to stir all season about his future. Another unnecessary distraction.
Pickens on playing on the tag seems to be where all of this is going in 2026.