Can the 'small-market' upstart Jaguars derail reigning MVP Josh Allen and pressure the Bills in a first-round playoff stunner?
What and who will carry the day in Jacksonville as the Jaguars host the Buffalo Bills in their Wild-Card matchup on Sunday?
The Jaguars have played their "small-market," nobody-believes-in-us hand throughout the second half of this season. But after winning eight straight games, finishing 13-4 to take the AFC South title, and netting the conference's No. 3 seed for the playoffs, the Jaguars are now officially SCARY.
Especially for a Bills team that's under pressure to prove it's not all rev and no go.
QB Trevor Lawrence will try to lead the 13-4 Jaguars to their ninth consecutive victory on Sunday as they host the Bills in the first round of the playoffs at Everbank Stadium. (Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union)Buffalo was the league's darling last season, finishing 13-4 and featuring Josh Allen under center. The Bills quarterback provided NFL and especially Buffalo fans with appointment viewing throughout the season, going mano-a-mano with two-time MVP Lamar Jackson to prove who was the NFL's best dual-threat QB. Jackson and his Ravens blinked -- and Allen scooped up the MVP trophy. He was able to carry it through two playoff wins before Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs ended the Bills' magic season to win the conference title and a Super Bowl berth.
But 2025's regular season has been less than stellar for both Allen and the Bills. They're 12-5, finishing second to the New England Patriots (and their MVP-caliber QB Drake Maye) in the AFC East, and coming into the postseason as the sixth seed.
And instead of the blowing snow and freezing temps that so favor the Bills at Highmark Stadium in western New York, they'll play Sunday -- weirdly, the road favorite by 1.5 points -- at sunny and warm Everbank Stadium in Jacksonville. Under head coach Sean McDermott, the Bills are 0-5 on the road in the playoffs and haven't won a playoff game on the road since 1992.
The weather in Jacksonville is expected to be in the mid-60s, possibly with early showers, for Sunday's Wild-Card game at Everbank Stadium. Sunday's high in Buffalo will reach 31. (Bob Self/Florida Times-Union)Still, the Jaguars shouldn't expect the Bills to buckle, regardless of the pressure Buffalo and Allen are under to reach at least another AFC Championship Game.
The Bills feature both Allen and the league's top rusher, James Cook III, who on Saturday was named to an NFL All-Pro for the first time in his four-year career. The pair anchor a Bills offense that ranks No. 1 in rushing and is among the league leaders in points per game with 28.3.
But throughout the season, especially after their Week 8 bye, the Jaguars have developed into just the sort of team the Bills could struggle against.
The Bills' top-ranked rushing offense will face the NFL's No. 1 run defense. If Allen and Cook are feeling the pinch of the Jags' front four, the Bills will lean more on passing -- against a secondary that's ranked No. 2 in the league in takeaways with 31 (22 interceptions and nine fumble recoveries). (The Chicago Bears led the NFL with 33 takeaways in the regular season -- 23 INTs and 10 fumble recoveries.)
The Bills -- like this year's Jaguars -- thrive on big plays. Sunday promises to be high-scoring, as Jacksonville ranks just behind Buffalo in ppg with 27.9. Bad news for the Bills, quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been playing the best football of his career, leading the Jags as they averaged 32.7 points in their past three games (all wins), while Buffalo averaged 23.3, with one loss.
The winner of Sunday's wild-card matchup will face the top-seeded Denver Broncos (14-3) in the AFC divisional round.
Kickoff is set for Sunday, Jan. 11, at 1 p.m. ET (CBS).
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