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Every Playoff Possibility and Seed Scenario for Jaguars in Week 18 cover image
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Billy Riccette
Dec 30, 2025
Updated at Dec 31, 2025, 00:54
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Win the AFC South, grab the top seed, or tumble down the playoff ladder. Every Jacksonville Jaguars scenario unfolds now.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are going to the playoffs. That is for certain but that is all that is certain heading into Week 18.

The Jaguars are not only playing for a division title in Week 18, but also still have a shot, albeit a small one, of being the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs. A slip-up against the Tennessee Titans, however, could tumble the Jaguars down the pecking order.

With the help of NFL Playoff Scenarios, we'll take a look at every potential scenario for the Jaguars, from their standard clinching scenarios to how they would secure every possible seed still available to them.

AFC South clinching scenario

Starting with the AFC South, the path is very simple for the Jaguars. They will clinch the division with a win/tie against the Tennessee Titans or a loss/tie by the Houston Texans against the Indianapolis Colts. The Texans would hold the tiebreaker if both teams finish 12-5 by virtue of what would be a 5-1 division record for the Texans compared to 4-2 for the Jaguars.

Seed Possibilities and Scenarios

We'll now break this down even further by going through the scenarios for every possible seed for the Jaguars. In short, the Jaguars can land any seed in the playoffs except the No. 4 seed -- the AFC North winner, either Pittsburgh or Baltimore, will hold that spot.

No. 1 Seed Scenario

The Jaguars have just one path to landing the No. 1 seed in the AFC. They need a win and they need losses by both the Denver Broncos (vs. Los Angeles Chargers) and New England Patriots (vs. Miami Dolphins).

No. 2 Seed Scenario

There are two scenarios that will bump the Jaguars up to the No. 2 seed, which would give them home games in the Wild Card and Divisional Rounds, should they advance.

Both require a win by the Jaguars. Then they need either a Broncos loss and a Patriots win/tie or a Broncos win/tie and a Patriots loss.

Simply put, a win plus a loss by either of the two teams ahead of them moves Jacksonville up the board.

No. 3 Seed Scenario

The Jaguars currently sit as the No. 3 seed and would be no lower if they defeat the Titans. There are four specific scenarios that would keep the Jaguars there. 

1) A win plus a win/tie by both the Broncos and Patriots

2) A tie against the Titans

3) A loss plus a loss/tie by the Texans

4) A win/tie by both the Broncos and Patriots plus a loss/tie by the Texans

No. 5 Seed Scenario

Now we get to the scenarios where the Jaguars fail to win the AFC South and fall to a Wild Card spot. 

The Jaguars would be the No. 5 seed and visit the AFC North winner if the following scenarios play out:

1) A loss plus a Texans win plus a Bills loss/tie

2) Loss plus Texans win plus Chargers win plus 3.5 or more combined wins from (Giants, Commanders, Packers, Panthers, Cardinals, 49ers, Patriots, Ravens)

Note: The italicized portion is for the Jaguars clinching strength of victory over the Chargers.

No. 6 Seed Scenario

The Jaguars would fall to the No. 6 seed and potentially head to Houston to start the playoffs if and only if they lose, the Texans win, the Bills win and the Chargers lose or tie. 

No. 7 Seed Scenario

Finally, there is one specific scenario in which the Jaguars would fall all the way to the No. 7 seed and there is a lot that has to happen. That scenario is as follows:

Loss plus Texans win plus Chargers win plus Bills win plus 5 or more combined wins from (Cowboys, Eagles, Vikings, Buccaneers, Seahawks, Rams, Dolphins, Steelers).

Note: The italicized portion is for the Chargers clinching strength of victory over the Jaguars.

So now you have a checklist to follow during Sunday's games to help you figure out exactly where the Jaguars will be heading into the playoffs.