A surprising quarterback change impacts the Jacksonville Jaguars' playoff path. Will a backup quarterback derail their top seed hopes?
The Jacksonville Jaguars enter Week 18 still with a chance to claim the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs. Jacksonville (12-4) needs to defeat the Tennessee Titans (3-13) and also need losses by the Denver Broncos (against the Los Angeles Chargers) and the New England Patriots (against the Miami Dolphins).
All that in itself is a tough task. It got even tougher thanks to a quarterbacking decision from one of the teams the Jaguars need to win.
On Monday, Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh told reporters that quarterback Justin Herbert will not play Sunday against the Broncos. Trey Lance is expected to get the start. Following their Week 17 loss to the Houston Texans, the Chargers were eliminated from contention in the AFC West. The Broncos secured their first division title since 2015.
The Chargers will enter the playoffs as a Wild Card. They currently sit as the No. 6 seed and could move up to No. 5 or down to No. 7. Sitting Herbert, who has dealt with a hand injury in recent weeks, implies the Chargers are more concerned about getting their players rest heading into the playoffs and aren't too worried about who they face and where they have to travel for Wild Card Weekend.
"He's got bruises that need to heal," Harbaugh said in regards to Herbert not playing Week 18.
With Lance starting instead of Herbert, the Chargers are 12.5-point underdogs in Denver over at DraftKings. In other words, the Chargers' chances of pulling the upset, and in turn, the Jaguars' chances of getting the No. 1 seed and the first-round bye, are very slim.
The Jaguars are currently the No. 3 seed and would secure the AFC South and at least the No. 3 seed with a win over the Titans or a Texans' loss to the Indianapolis Colts. They can move up to No. 2 with a win plus a loss by either the Broncos or Patriots.
If the Jaguars are upset by the Titans, they could fall as far as No. 7, but the odds of that are extremely low. They would fall to No. 7 with a loss, plus wins by the Texans, Chargers and Buffalo Bills as well as a handful of other teams losing to involve the strength of victory tiebreaker.
Realistically, a loss could drop them to No. 6 if the Texans and Bills win and the Chargers lose. A loss plus a Texans win and a Bills loss would put the Jaguars as the No. 5 seed.