Despite returning an MVP-caliber quarterback and 19 starters from a 13-win squad, analysts remain skeptical that Jacksonville’s defense can replicate its dominant postseason run in 2026.
The lack of belief in the 2026 Jacksonville Jaguars continues to amaze.
How quickly so many people have forgotten that this team won 13 games last season and is returning 19 of its 22 starters.
How quickly people have forgotten that Trevor Lawrence developed into an MVP finalist.
How quickly people have forgotten that Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, and Travon Walker did not come close to reaching expectations last year and yet the Jaguars still won 13 games.
How quickly people have forgotten that the offense had to learn a new system (again) and, as the players became more comfortable, became one of the best offenses in the entire NFL.
It's one thing to say "I don't think the Jaguars will win 13 games again, but they are still a really good team."
It's another to think that they aren't even a playoff team this season.
But that is exactly what Bill Barnwell of ESPN thinks. In his article predicting which 14 teams will make the playoffs this season, Barnwell left Jacksonville out, despite the team's success just last year and all the reasons to believe that they can be even better in Year 2 under head coach Liam Coen.
At Least They Are Consistent
While their dismissal of the Jaguars as a contender this year is astounding, at least both Barnwell and ESPN have been consistent in their doubts about this team for months.
Barnwell previously listed Jacksonville as one of five teams most likely to decline this year, while ESPN has the Jaguars all the way down to 17th in its NFL power rankings.
His reasons for concern continue to be plentiful. Among his many doubts, Barnwell, like many others, questions whether the Jaguars' running game will be adequate. He also has concerns about the offensive line and the Jaguars playing only six games in Jacksonville this season.
Barnwell does admit there's a "scenario" in which the offense improves, but doesn't believe the pieces will fall into place for it to happen.
"The Jags rode a massive increase in defensive takeaways and a second half full of games against second- and third-string quarterbacks to make a nine-game leap and jump into the postseason. There are talented players on defense, and Travis Hunter could help shore up what had been a weak spot at corner if he's there on something close to a full-time basis in 2026. But the playoff push was really driven by a defense that ranked sixth in DVOA, and the Jaguars won't be as healthy or force as many turnovers this season.
"Most of the discussion around the Jags surrounds the offense, and while Trevor Lawrence ended the regular season protecting the football, the unit finished only 14th in DVOA. There's a scenario where the offense is much better in 2026, but it involves a lot of counting on the best versions of players such as Brian Thomas Jr., Bhayshul Tuten, Cole Van Lanen and Parker Washington all showing up at the same time. I have serious reservations about the running game and the offensive line, and playing a league-high 11 games away from their home stadium won't help matters. This could be a consolidation year for Jacksonville."
Barnwell's points aren't wrong, but acting like the Jaguars are the only team in the NFL that has question marks or will face any kind of adversity is.
All teams have questions (except maybe the Rams). All teams face adversity.
The good teams, the ones who end up in the playoffs, answer those questions and overcome adversity.
The Jaguars are one of those teams.
Final Thoughts
I like Barnwell a lot. His work is outstanding. Whether I agree with his opinions or not, he always backs them up with numbers, precedents, and thoughtful analysis that support his position. He doesn't just say stuff for the purpose of saying stuff or having a hot take to get clicks.
But I do think his dismissal of the Jaguars this season is wrong. Maybe they won't win 13 games again. It's almost a lock that they won't. That really doesn't matter.
The best teams, which the Jaguars are trying to prove they are one of, aren't judged by their regular season success. They are judged by what they accomplish in the playoffs.
Coach Coen has built a culture and laid the foundation for sustainable success in Jacksonville. He and his staff have gotten more out of many Jaguars' players than his predecessors.
Coen also loves flying under the radar the way the Jaguars are, They get to embrace an underdog mentality that most 13-win teams don't possess.
Expect Jacksonville to prove Barnwell wrong and return to the postseason this year.
Judge them by what they do once they get there.
