The 10-4 Jaguars face the 12-2 Broncos as they battle for the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Can Trevor Lawrence solve Denver's elite defense and take the top spot?
The Jacksonville Jaguars’ recent five-game winning streak has put them in position to not only win the AFC South for the first time since 2022. Their 10-4 record has those in Duval County eyeing more—the AFC’s No. 1 seed and first-round bye with just three games left in the regular season.
While a lot can still happen in the final weeks of the season, the Jaguars will get the opportunity to play in a playoff-like atmosphere when they travel to Denver to take on the current AFC No. 1 seed Broncos (12-2) at 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX) on Sunday. The Broncos have won 11 straight and have already clinched a playoff berth while the Jaguars are currently the No. 3 seed in the AFC.
In the last five games Liam Coen’s offense has lit up the scoreboard and filled up the stat sheet. During their winning streak the Jaguars are averaging 34.2 points per game and 355.2 total yards per game, but Jacksonville has not faced the caliber of defense of the Broncos since a Week 9 loss to the Houston Texans (9-5).
Along with a 7-0 record at Empower Field at Mile High, the Bronco’s defense is fourth in total yards allowed (287.7 ypg), No. 2 against the run (90.9 ypg) and third in the NFL in points allowed (18.6 ppg).
Seemingly, the one area the Jaguars have an advantage is in the passing game. Although quarterback Trevor Lawrence has only one game with more than 300 yards passing during the Jags’ winning streak, he has averaged 233.8 pass ypg and hasn’t thrown an interception in his last three games. The Broncos are No. 2 in the NFL against the rush (90.9 ypg), but give up 196.9 pass ypg.
Despite their recent offensive prowess, the Jaguars will need to improve on third down if they want to be successful against Denver. The Broncos are No. 1 in the NFL on opponents’ third-down efficiency with opponents averaging just 31.94 percent on third down. In their last five games the Jaguars have converted on third down just 37 percent of the time.
If Jacksonville can be efficient on third down and Lawrence continues his accuracy in the passing game, the Jaguars might be making a case for the AFC’s best team with a win against the Broncos.
The Broncos are 3.5-point favorites and the point total for the game is 46.5.