Brian Thomas Jr.’s sophomore slump with the Jacksonville Jaguars raised doubts, but injuries, drops, and history suggest the former first-round pick could rebound with a strong Year 3.
A lot has been made of receiver Brian Thomas Jr.’s sophomore slump after he burst onto the scene as a rookie for the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Nagging injuries limited his 2025 season, but critics argue he's first-round bust who should be traded. Thomas has elicited just this kind of strong reactions about his future with the team.
There’s no dispute the second-year receiver from LSU had a down year, even as Jacksonville had a historic 13-4 record under first-year head coach Liam Coen. After having 87 catches for 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns in 17 games in his rookie season, Thomas had just 48 receptions for 707 yards and two touchdowns while playing in 14 games this season. Along with missing most of the month of November with an ankle injury, Thomas saw his targets per game average drop from 7.8 to 6.5, and went from being targeted 10 or more times in a game six times in 2024 to just twice in 2025.
While injuries and playing in a new offensive scheme can account for a loss in production, maybe the most alarming stat for Thomas in 2025 were the number of drops. He went from seven drops and a drop rate of 5.3 percent in 2024 to 10 drops and a drop rate of 11.0 in 2025. Thomas also had a drop in success rate of 55.6 percent to 47.3 and a drop in catch rate from 65.4 to 52.7 percent in 2025.
However, a bounce-back in year three isn’t out of the question for the former Pro-Bowl selection. Of the 15 receivers that have been selected in the first round of the NFL draft since 2021 (not including the 2024 class), four receivers -- Zay Flowers (Baltimore Ravens), Drake London (Atlanta Falcons), Garrett Wilson (New York Jets) and Jaylen Waddle (Miami Dolphins) -- struggled in their second seasons, only to come back and have solid seasons in their third year.
In their sophomore seasons, three of those receivers registered fewer catches than in their rookie season, all four had at least a two-point slide in success rate in year two, and three of the four had a dip in catch rate. But in their third year, Flowers, London, Wilson and Waddle not only improved their success and catch rates, each finished that year with more than 1,000 yards receiving.
As for the drops, Jaguars fans can look to another standout receiver from LSU for hope. In his first two seasons, which included Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase totaled 2,501 yards receiving and 22 touchdowns, but he also had 22 drops during over that span, finishing with a drop rate of more than 8 percent in each season. Despite many questioning his ability to make catches after his first two seasons, Chase had 100 receptions for the first time in his career and just five drops (3.4 drop rate) in his third season. That season, Chase finished with 1,216 receiving yards and seven touchdowns for the Bengals.
Although the season was underwhelming as a whole for Thomas, after returning from injury on Nov. 30, he caught 60 percent of his targets and averaged 15.4 yards per catch in his final seven games, including in the playoffs. Getting healthy and a solid 2026 in Coen’s offense should give Thomas -- who is under contract through 2027 -- the opportunity to turn his sophomore slump into a third-year triumph.
ㅤ
Join the Community! Don't miss out on our ROUNDTABLE community and the latest news! It's completely free to join. Share your thoughts, engage with our Roundtable writers, and chat with fellow members.
Download the free Roundtable APP, and stay even more connected!