What To Watch For: Patriots vs. Dolphins

Mike Vrabel’s first goal for the 2025 season has been accomplished: win the division. Next, it’s on to hosting home playoff games and playing for championships.

Before we get there, the Patriots still have some business to attend to with a scrappy Miami Dolphins team on Sunday.

New England enters the regular season finale at 13-3 on the heels of one of their more impressive victories of the season last weekend against the New York Jets. Quarterback Drake Maye engineered a historically great offensive showing, becoming the first quarterback in NFL history to complete a game with 250-plus passing yards, five touchdowns, and a completion percentage of at least 90%.

Miami comes in at 7-9, already eliminated from playoff contention. At first glance, it may appear that their season has been filled with turmoil — to some extent, it has been. 

Like the Jets last week, the Dolphins are starting a different quarterback than they did in the teams’ first contest. Three weeks ago, they ended the Tua Tagovailoa experiment to begin anew with rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers.

Unlike the Jets, Miami has found success in the second half of the season. They began the year an abysmal 1-6, and have since won six of their last nine games to hit 7-9. Since Ewers took over as the starter, the team is 1-1, with his victory taking place this past weekend when the Dolphins defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 20-17.

Since making the switch, Ewers has been efficient running Mike McDaniel’s offense — or at least more efficient than we saw from the Jets’ Brady Cook last week. Ewers has completed 65 percent of his passes with two touchdowns and two interceptions in the times we’ve seen him this season.

The Dolphins may already be looking ahead to the 2026 season, but it’s clear that McDaniel is looking to put a good performance on the field every Sunday for his own job security as we wrap-up regular season play. 

Miami has notably played spoiler for the Patriots in the past — in Week 17 of the 2019 season, the Dolphins came into Gillette Stadium and knocked off the Patriots. 

That loss knocked New England down in the playoff seeding, setting them up to host Vrabel and the Tennessee Titans in the Wild Card Round for what would end up being Tom Brady’s final game as a Patriot.

What’s at stake when New England hosts Miami this weekend? Let’s take a closer look.

New England currently sits as the second-seed in the AFC playoff picture. They’re currently tied with Denver (13-3) for the best record in the conference, but do not hold the tiebreaker over the Broncos.

To secure the first overall seed, the Chargers would need to beat the Broncos this weekend — a scenario that is looking less likely as we get closer to game time. 

Earlier this week, L.A. announced that Justin Herbert would be sitting out for Sunday’s game. Los Angeles cannot win the AFC West and have already clinched a playoff spot, so they’re almost certainly going to use this week as an opportunity to heal up before the postseason.

As things currently stand, Buffalo sits in the seventh spot and would be the Patriots’ first round opponent. However, outcomes in Week 18 are likely to change that.

A Chargers loss to the Broncos paired with a Bills win against the Jets would slide L.A. down to the seven-seed, and pair them with the Patriots in the first round.

Given the early indications on how Los Angeles plans to handle Sunday’s game, questions have arisen on how New England plans to handle Sunday’s game. With the division already clinched, the lowest seed the Patriots could fall to is third. To do so, they would need to lose to the Dolphins, and the Jacksonville Jaguars would need to beat the Tennessee Titans.

Vrabel was asked about how he plans to handle Sunday, to which he responded: 

“The guys that are healthy are going to play.”

A win on Sunday would be the Patriots’ 14th of the season. It would be the sixth time in franchise history they’d accomplish the feat, and the first since 2016.

Patriots’ Quarterback Drake Maye is also on the verge of breaking a franchise record this weekend. Through 16 games, he has a completion percentage of 71.7% on the season. Withstanding a catastrophe, that mark should hold through Week 18 — and will surpass Tom Brady’s franchise record of 68.9%, set in 2007.

Last week, Patriots’ Running Back TreVeyon Henderson eclipsed the 1,000 scrimmage yard (rushing and receiving yards) mark for the year and became Patriot rusher since Curtis Martin in 1995 to hit that mark as a rookie. This week, he enters play sitting at 858 rushing yards. With his gamebreaking ability, the 1,000 rushing yard mark is also well within Henderson’s reach.

Wide Receiver Stefon Diggs sits at 970 receiving yards for the year. With just 30 yards, he’d become the first Patriot receiver to hit the 1,000 yard mark since Julian Edelman in 2019.

The injury situation ramped up last week for the Patriots, as they placed DL Joshua Farmer and WR Mack Hollins on injured reserve prior to the Jets game.

The loss of Hollins’ will be especially impactful in the upcoming weeks, as he played every receiver position, and was used as a pseudo tight end/extra eligible blocker in the run game to create match-up issues in the box. His absence — surprisingly — wasn’t all that notable against the Jets, but as we enter postseason play, Maye and the offense will likely miss him in both the running and passing game.

New England will be getting reinforcements, and it looks like that will begin this week.

OT Will Campbell began practicing again this week as he works his way back from a knee injury — he was a full participant each day. Although it has not been officially announced whether he’ll play Sunday or not, that’s a great sign for the Patriots’ 2025 first-round pick.

Last week, the Patriots opened DT Milton Williams’ window to return from injured reserve and he began practicing. That didn’t make a difference for his game day availability for the Jets, but it appears that the upcoming Dolphins game will be a different story. 

Williams spent the week as a limited participant at practice, but was not listed as questionable by Vrabel in his Friday media availability. 

Joining Williams and Campbell will be WR Kayshon Boutte, who began the week in a red non-contact jersey as he worked his way back from concussion protocol and became a full participant by Thursday. 

Of the three, it looks most likely that Boutte’s back on the field on Sunday, provided he officially clears the league’s concussion protocol..

Here are the game day statuses Vrabel provided on Friday:

OUT

QUESTIONABLE

For Miami, big injury news broke on Friday that will likely impact Sunday’s contest. 

On offense, RB De’Von Achane (shoulder) missed Friday’s practice and is listed as questionable for the game, although it has been reported that it’s unlikely he plays. He’s currently considered a “game-time” decision.

WR Jaylen Waddle (ribs) was a limited participant at practice this week also listed as questionable.

TE Darren Waller was placed on injured reserve with a groin injury to conclude his 2025 campaign. 

On the defensive side, S Minkah Fitzpatrick is questionable and reportedly trending toward missing his third consecutive game with a calf injury.

All not great news for Miami as they travel to Foxboro to begin 2026. Let’s take a closer look at how that’ll impact the game.

While it sounds like Achane won’t play, his official injury designation is “questionable.” And with Miami’s severe lack of depth at offensive skill positions behind him, Waddle, and Waller, we’re going to take the Patriots’ direction here and assume that unless he’s ruled out, he’ll be on the field on Sunday. 

If so, New England continues a stretch against offenses led primarily by a strong rushing attack. Since the bye week, they’ve matched up against James Cook, Derrick Henry, and Breece Hall. This week, it’s De’Von Achane’s turn to try and crack the Patriots’ defensive armor.

Achane has been the most consistent producer in the Dolphins offense all season long, and is the most explosive big-play threat of the rushers they’ve seen in recent weeks — an enormous compliment considering the company. 

Achane has accumulated 1,838 scrimmage yards this season, with 1,350 yards rushing and 488 yards receiving. He’s found the end zone on 12 occasions, with eight rushing touchdowns and four receiving touchdowns. Heavily involved in the passing game, Achane also leads the Dolphins in receptions this year with 67.

In their Week 2 matchup in Miami, Achane was held to just 30 yards rushing, but went off for 92 receiving yards — and was one step in the white chalk away from changing the outlook of that game entirely late in the fourth quarter.

As a team, Miami ranks tenth in the NFL in per-game rushing average, with 123.8 rushing yards-per-game. They’re 19th in rushing touchdowns (14).

New England’s rushing defense ranks 8th in the NFL, averaging 104.1 yards-against-per-game. They’re tied for fourth in the league in fewest rushing touchdowns allowed (11) on the year.

Without Williams, Tonga, Farmer, Landry, and Spillane, the Patriots’ front seven has been running thin in recent weeks, but it hasn’t shown up in the win/loss column. Even with Breece Hall accounting for nearly 130 yards in their last game and Derrick Henry rushing for 128 yards and two touchdowns the week prior, the Patriots have shown they can outlast a stellar opposing rushing performance and win. 

Getting Williams back this week will be a big win for that group, even if he only plays limited snaps.

Key #1: Contain Achane

The Patriots have shown in recent weeks that they’re able to sustain a great performance from an opposing running back. Achane’s consistent production in the passing game is an added concern on Sunday, and his speed on the perimeter may change how willing New England is to load the box. 

If Achane is on the field, he’s the focal point of this offense. All eleven on the Patriots side of the ball will have to keep track of him at all times. 

If he’s truly out on Sunday, that’s a big loss for the Dolphins, and adds another challenge to sustaining drives with a rookie quarterback.

Miami ranks 25th on the season in passing average with 184.4 yards-per-game. They’re 21st in touchdowns (22), and 16th in red zone scoring (57.8% of red zone trips result in a touchdown).

In the two games that Ewers has started for Miami, there have been two vastly different outcomes. 

Both of his starts have come at home: a 45-21 loss to Cincinnati, and the aforementioned 20-17 win over Tampa Bay. In the Bengals loss, Ewers completed 20-of-30 passes for 260 yards, but did not throw a touchdown and tossed two interceptions. Against the Buccaneers, he went 14-22 for 172 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. 

Ewers has taken four sacks in three games with the Dolphins, as he came in late in Miami’s 31-6 loss to Cleveland earlier this season. He fumbled twice in that game, and then once more against the Buccaneers, but the Dolphins have recovered each of those. 

With Tyreek Hill out for the season, 2025 has been the year of Jaylen Waddle as WR1 in Miami. Through 16 games, the speedster leads the Dolphins in targets (100), receiving yards (910) and is tied with Darren Waller for the team-lead in receiving touchdowns with six. 

Waller had been a revelation for the Dolphins since coming out of retirement to join the team this summer. Prior to this year, he last played for the Giants in 2023. Though limited in his overall usage, Miami often looked to target Waller near the red zone, and he became a dependable jump-ball target for them over the course of the year. 

Without Waller (or Achane, potentially) on the field, the Dolphins would be set to lean on Waddle. 

If Miami chooses to go the”pack-it-in” route for the final week of the season and Waddle’s not on the field, their options will be limited. 

Key #2: Pressure Plan

New England looked to speed-up the internal clock for rookie QB Brady Cook last week, and we could see more of the same this week against Ewers. Without many of his top receiving options on the field, the Patriots could be emboldened to bring the heat and throw Ewers’ rhythm off. If one, or both, of Miami’s stars are on the field, I would expect less to see them blitz less, though. The Dolphins’ offense is predicated on getting the ball out of the QB’s hands faster than the rush, and leaving defenders in one-on-one battles with Achane and Waddle could spell disaster. Zone blitzes and simulated pressures would likely be the answer to that, while bracketing Waddle with a safety over-the-top. 

Entering last Sunday’s contest against the Jets, the story surrounding New England’s offense was much like their defense. 

Down two of his top three receivers and both starters along the left side of the offensive line, Maye walked into East Rutherford with a “skeleton crew” of sorts. 

With that crew, all Maye did was lead six touchdown drives on all six possessions he played. He only threw two incompletions to his five touchdown passes, and set a new franchise record with five different receivers catching a touchdown pass in the game. 

Everyone was getting involved, and they were all making plays when they got their opportunity.

Even Efton Chism III played 41 snaps on offense. In doing so, he set a new career-best, racing right past the 10 offensive snaps he had in Week 6 at Tennessee. Chism impressed when he was on the field, hauling in both of his targets for 43 yards and a touchdown. 

The touchdown was the first of the undrafted rookie’s career, and it came on a play where he was lined up as the “F” on the line of scrimmage — similar to how Hollins had been utilized in short-yardage. A good sign that Chism is proving his versatility and knowledge of the playbook early in his professional career.

Here’s a breakdown of that play from the All-22 Review — a segment on our new Patriots Roundtable Podcast: 

The Dolphins are in the middle-of-the-pack against the pass, ranking 15th in the league with 216.5 yards-against-per-game. They’re bottom-ten in passing touchdowns allowed (28).

According to Pro Football Reference, Miami blitzes at the eighth highest-rate in the NFL (27.3%), but only generates pressure on 21.3% of dropbacks (21st). 

Maye was 6/6 for 90 yards and three touchdowns against the blitz last week. Read more on that here.

Miami also runs a zone-based defensive scheme, running Cover-Two at the highest rate in the league this year (27.4% of defensive snaps), and cloud coverages on 34% of defensive snaps (second-highest rate in the NFL).

That will work to Maye’s advantage. He’s been extremely efficient against zone coverage this year, ranking first in the NFL in passer rating vs. zone coverages (110.2).

Some of Maye’s most memorable throws throughout the season have come on “hole shots” down the sideline, over the top of the corner and outside of the safety. Boutte’s catch that set the Patriots up in field goal range to win in Buffalo in Week 5 came on one of those plays.

Against the Dolphins in Week 2, Maye went 14-of-16 with 184 passing yards when facing zone coverages.

Key #3: Passing Game Efficiency

No one should expect the Patriots to air the ball out 40 or 50 times this Sunday, and their offense has looked much better when they haven’t. Maye was deadly on just 21 attempts last week, and in a game where the main priority is exiting healthy — the less he’s in the line of fire, the better. The quick passing game should be readily available for Maye, with any deeper shots coming off of play-action. This should be another week where Maye looks in-control of the flow of the game.

The Patriots have looked better in the run game recently, although that may be due more to volume than substance. TreVeyon Henderson has continued to struggle to find any space on plays that he doesn’t break the game open on, while Rhamondre Stevenson has continued to look more confident with each passing game.

Last week, Stevenson got the offense going, rushing five times for 45 yards in the first quarter (he finished the game with eight carries), and capped things off with a rushing touchdown from the one-yard-line — something that has seemed to be the Patriots’ offensive kryptonite this year.

Henderson led the backfield with 19 rushing attempts for 82 yards — a notable shift in the lead-back role when both are active. 

The potential for a thunder-and-lightning type duo is still there, but we have yet to see that fully materialize. At this point in the regular season, it seems like the Patriots are force-feeding Henderson reps to improve his vision and consistency by the time the postseason run begins. 

I don’t blame them, and I expect that to continue this week. Keep Stevenson — who missed time earlier this year with a toe injury — fresh for the playoffs, and give Henderson every opportunity for things to “click.”

Henderson’s been an electric home-run-hitter, but he’s been inconsistent on a down-by-down basis. To get the most out of each back in the postseason, he’ll need to improve in that area. In-game reps are the best way to get him there.

The Miami front-seven may be a good one to test for Henderson and the Patriots offense, as they rank in the bottom-third of the league with 125.5 yards-against-per-game.

Key #4: Get Henderson Going

TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson have the potential to be a solid one-two punch in the postseason, but Henderson will need to improve on the efficiency of his touches to warrant significant playing time moving forward. In games that Henderson has had a 50+ yard rush, he’s averaging just over two-yards-per-carry on his other attempts. New England will need him to be far less “boom or bust” in the playoffs, and that could start with giving him a ton of looks in Week 18.

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One goal down for Vrabel and the Patriots this year. With the division in-hand, it’s time to prepare for hosting playoff games. 

That starts with a win over the Dolphins on Sunday. 

In a matchup that seems similar to the Jets last week, both teams come in with a long list of injuries.

This time, that could impact Miami significantly more. 

We’ll have to see who suits up on Sunday when it’s all said and done, but as the week has progressed, it’s seemed more and more likely that we’ll see some of the reserves in this one — perhaps on both sidelines.

It’s hard to imagine the Patriots giving Campbell, Williams, or Boutte a full workload this week if Miami is missing many of their key contributors. 

While they could return in limited fashion to get some snaps under their belts before the playoffs, playing time could be something to monitor for many of New England’s starters if Miami doesn’t field a competitive team. 

Even still, that makes the outcome of this one that much harder to predict — and that could have seeding ramifications.

Will the Patriots continue their excellence against a team that’s ready for Cancun? Or will the Dolphins muster up enough fight for one more game to knock New England down a peg going into the postseason?

We’ll be here to break down all of the Week 18 outcomes and how they impact the playoff picture for the Patriots.

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