Justin Herbert and the Chargers have the talent to stress New England, but the numbers point to clear pressure points — especially up front — that the Patriots can exploit on Sunday night.
The Los Angeles Chargers present plenty of challenges offensively, but the numbers also show key areas of weakness that New England may be able to exploit.
They have a star quarterback in Justin Herbert, who finished the 2025 regular season with 3,727 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions while completing 66.7% of his passes. He added 498 yards rushing on 6.0 yards-per-carry.
Herbert’s ability to escape the pocket and make plays has been a staple of his style throughout his career, and he led the league in touchdown passes outside the pocket this year with nine.
Paired with Herbert is the infamous Ladd McConkey, whom the Patriots passed on in the second round of the 2024 draft for wide receiver Jalynn Polk, who is no longer with the team. McConkey has been LA’s leading receiver in each of his two seasons with the Chargers.
He won AP Offensive Rookie of the Year last season and finished with 82 receptions for 1,149 yards and seven touchdowns. He followed that up this year with 66 receptions and a team-high 789 yards.
Also on the outside, Keenan Allen made his return to LA after a brief sabbatical in Chicago last year. At age 33, Herbert’s longtime safety valve led the Chargers with 81 receptions this year, albeit with only 777 yards to show for it (9.6 yards-per-reception).
Herbert also has a third option at wide receiver in Quentin Johnston, who led LA with eight touchdown receptions this year. He — like McConkey and Allen — joined the 700-yard club, finishing with 735 receiving yards on the year on 51 receptions.
In theory, Los Angeles looks to have a high-velocity passing attack. Peel back the layers, though, and it isn’t nearly as efficient as you’d imagine.
Allen (122 targets), McConkey (106 targets), and Johnston (84 targets) share a catch percentage of just 63% (198/312 total targets).
Collectively, Los Angeles ranks just 18th in total passing yards, even while passing on 62.9% of its offensive plays. Herbert is top-10 in the league in dropbacks, attempts, and touchdowns, but the Chargers’ passing offense holds a collective EPA of just +0.02 — as opposed to New England’s +0.27.
So what’s wrong with Los Angeles’ offense, and where can the Patriots take advantage?
The Achilles heel for this entire unit is the offensive line.
Decimated by injuries, the Chargers have been without both of their starting tackles — Rashawn Slater (placed on injured reserve on August 9) and Joe Alt (placed on injured reserve on November 5) — for a significant portion of the season.
Even their replacements have gotten hurt. And their replacements’ replacements. They traded for linemen, signed others during the season, and shifted player positions to serve the needs of the group. They’ve tried everything.
Los Angeles led the NFL with 32(!) different offensive line combinations this season.
Currently, their lineup projects to have the 61st (of 89), 51st (of 81), 40th (of 40), 79th (of 81), and 82nd (of 89) highest-graded players at their positions as starters on Sunday, per PFF. On the year, they have a collective PFF pass-blocking grade of 49.7 — ranking 31st in the NFL, only ahead of the Cleveland Browns.
That’s led to inefficiencies in the passing and running game, and it has gotten Herbert more than a little banged up. Herbert fractured his left hand in Week 13 and had surgery to repair it. He’d been playing through the injury with a cast and glove prior to the Chargers resting him for Week 18.
Herbert has taken 54 sacks this season — second in the NFL behind only Geno Smith and Cam Ward (55). He’s been pressured on a league-high 40% of dropbacks and hurried at the highest rate of any quarterback since 1999. His 13 interceptions also rank in the bottom-five, with only Smith (17), Tua Tagovailoa (15), and Sam Darnold (14) recording more.
When pressured, Herbert’s rankings dip dramatically. He ranks 26th in the NFL in quarterback rating under pressure (67.1) and 20th in EPA/dropback at -0.39.
The catch is that Herbert also ranks top-10 in nearly every statistical and analytical measure when blitzed.
That’s why applying pressure will likely be a job for the Patriots’ defensive line. Linebackers and defensive backs will need to keep eyes on his escapability while plays develop.
Key #1: Get pressure on Herbert with the front four. Los Angeles’ offensive line is the weakest position group for either team entering the game, and that will require the Patriots’ pass rush to step up. New England currently ranks 24th in pressure rate (20.3%) and is tied for 26th in sacks (35). The return of Milton Williams — and potentially Harold Landry — would be a big boost for a room that needs to show production in this game.
Los Angeles’ ground game is led by rookie running back Omarion Hampton, whom the Chargers selected with the 22nd overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
In a best-case scenario, Hampton is the bell-cow in a Jim Harbaugh offense that leans heavy into the run and throws off of play action with multiple personnel packages.
In reality, Hampton has also been hindered by the offensive line and has dealt with injuries throughout his rookie campaign. He missed time earlier this year with an ankle issue, and that popped back up this week, as he did not participate in practice on Wednesday.
Hampton only played in nine games and rushed for over 100 yards just once — on September 28, when the Chargers lost at the Giants, 18-21.
He totaled 545 yards on 124 carries (4.4 yards-per-rush) and found the end zone five times on the year. He trailed Kimani Vidal (643 yards) for the team lead in rushing on the season.
While the Chargers only ran on 37.1% of their offensive snaps during the regular season, play action was a regular part of the passing game.
Per PFF, Los Angeles ran play action on 26.5% of its passes this season — Herbert was far more efficient on those plays (68.5% completion percentage, 8.3 Y/A, 10 touchdowns, 2 interceptions) than straight dropbacks (66.5% completion percentage, 6.9 Y/A, 16 touchdowns, 11 interceptions).
The Chargers likely want to be a heavier run team, but health concerns in the running back room plus the offensive line woes have made it difficult to sustain momentum on the ground — and have put more on Herbert’s shoulders all season long.
Key #2: Stop Hampton; negate the Chargers’ effective use of play action. The Patriots have seen star running backs throughout the past month in James Cook, Derrick Henry, and Breece Hall, but they have newfound life with the return of Milton Williams (and potentially Robert Spillane). New England allowed just 23 yards on 13 carries to Jaylen Wright last week, but it’ll take a greater effort to slow down Hampton.
One final matchup to watch is how each unit performs in the red zone.
This is a weakness-on-weakness matchup, as the Chargers rank 29th in the league in red zone offense, scoring touchdowns on 47.4% of their trips. The Patriots rank 30th in red zone defense, allowing touchdowns to opposing offenses on 67.5% of their trips.
Key #3: Keep Los Angeles out of the end zone when it reaches the red area. The Chargers rank just 24th in red zone attempts and have a low conversion percentage, but that’s been the Patriots’ kryptonite this season. New England has shown promise in recent weeks, holding the Dolphins to 1-for-3 (with a turnover on downs and an interception) and the Jets to 0-for-2 (one field goal and a turnover on downs) during the last two regular season games. We’ll see if that trend continues, or if the Chargers find a way to maximize their talent at the skill positions near the goal line.
Will New England be able to take advantage of a deteriorating Los Angeles offensive line when the Chargers visit Foxboro on Sunday night?
Or will Herbert put on the cape and lift the Chargers offense like he’s done on several occasions this season?
Stay tuned for a preview of the Patriots’ offense vs. the Chargers’ defense coming tomorrow!
–
The Latest from Eddie:
Check out the Patriots Roundtable Podcast!