What to Watch For: New England Patriots Defense vs. Detroit Lions Offense | Week 10 2026

Liebe Grüße aus Deutschland!

This Sunday, the New England Patriots (5-4) and Detroit Lions (6-2) skip across the pond for an international affair in Munich, Germany. When the action kicks off, New England’s reeling defense will face a balanced Detroit offensive attack that is just as dangerous on the ground as they are through the air. With a wide range of weapons to prepare for, the Patriots will need to be at their best to contain the high-powered Lions.

Here’s what we’ll be watching for when New England’s defense lines up across from Detroit’s offense:

Jared Goff has enjoyed a career renaissance since being acquired by the Lions in a blockbuster trade with the Los Angeles Rams in 2021, and his 2026 performance is right in line with the impressive totals he’s maintained since arriving in the Motor City.

Goff has thrown for at least 4,400 yards and 29 touchdowns in each of his last four seasons, and currently ranks ninth in the NFL with 2,134 yards passing through his first eight games of 2026. Goff’s 67.8% completion percentage ranks fourth among qualifying quarterbacks in the league, and is nearly identical to his yearly average (67.9%) in Detroit. He’s thrown for 15 touchdowns and two interceptions on the year, and his 83.4 offensive grade (per PFF) ranks fifth.

With Goff at the helm, the Lions have been one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL. They rank third in passing success rate (52.2%, per SūmerSports), fourth in EPA/pass (+0.20), fifth in total offensive yards per game (379.8), points per game (27.8), explosive play rate (15.4%, per PFF), and offensive success rate (48.4%), sixth in EPA/play (+0.07), and eighth in passing yards per game (252.0).

Not known for his arm strength, Goff has been one of the most deadly deep-ball throwers in the NFL this season. While only attempting deep throws on 7.7% of his throws (30th), his 99.9 grade on passes 20-plus yards downfield ranks first in the NFL (per PFF). Goff’s completed 11-of-21 attempts (52.4%) with 384 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, a league-best big-time throw rate of 45.5%, and a passer rating of 129.6 on such plays.

Forcing Goff into mistakes hasn’t been easy this season, but that may be trending in the right direction for a Patriots defense looking for a turnover spark. Goff has recorded the seventh-lowest turnover-worthy play rate on the year (1.9%), but has thrown an interception in each of his last two games — his only two on the season — after starting the year with six consecutive weeks without an interception. 

In wins over the Minnesota Vikings in Week 8 (18-of-25, 176 yards, one touchdown, one interception, 88.1 passer rating) and Miami Dolphins in Week 9 (17-of-25, 170 yards, no touchdowns, one interception, 70.4 passer rating), Goff registered season-lows in attempts, yards, and passer rating.

Goff has been great, but he’s been the beneficiary of playing beside a dangerous rushing attack that serves as the foundation of the Detroit offense.

Jahmyr Gibbs has been one of the NFL’s most electric playmakers since entering the league as the Lions’ first-round pick (No. 12 overall) in 2023.

Splitting reps with David Montgomery through his first three seasons, Gibbs totaled 1,261 scrimmage yards and 11 touchdowns as a rookie, 1,929 yards and a league-best 20 touchdowns in 2024, and 1,839 yards and 18 touchdowns in 2025 — all while playing an average of 58% of the team’s offensive snaps. He’s averaged at least 5.0 yards per carry in each season, and as a dual-threat out of the backfield, has never dipped below 52 receptions in a year. 

Now that Montgomery has departed for the Houston Texans, Gibbs has operated through 2026 as the clear top-dog in the Lions’ running back rotation for the first time in his career (a 78% snap share, per PFF) — and the results have followed. 

Through eight games, Gibbs leads the NFL in carries (177), has rushed for 847 yards (third, 4.8 yards per carry), and scored nine touchdowns on the ground (tied for second). As a pass-catcher, he’s added 34 receptions on 45 targets, 285 receiving yards, and two touchdowns. His 211 total touches, 1,132 scrimmage yards, and 11 total touchdowns all top the league. 

Gibbs’ 88.0 offensive grade ranks third among all NFL running backs in 2026, as does his 88.6 receiving grade (per PFF). His 45 impact plays are first among all running backs around the league (per SūmerSports), and are 13 more than the second-highest ranked players (Kenneth Walker and Jaylen Warren, 32). Gibbs also tops the league with 29 rushes of 10-plus yards, 61 missed tackles forced, and has hit 15-plus miles per hour on a league-best 40 carries. In 2025, he recorded three of the four fastest times for ballcarriers in the league, reaching 23.34 miles per hour, 22.23 miles per hour, and 22.17 miles per hour on separate touchdown runs (per Next Gen Stats).

As a team, the Lions generate the most explosive runs in the NFL (14.3%), and rank seventh in rushing attempts per game (28.8), eighth in rushing yards per game (127.8), and 10th in yards per carry (4.4) and rushing success rate (43.5%), but fall to 21st in EPA/rush (-0.10) and 25th in stuff rate (23.2%). They major in outside zone rushes — which they run at the fifth-highest rate in the league (43.8%) — out of 12 personnel — which they run at the third-highest rate (34.8%). Only the Buffalo Bills (56.5%) run a higher percentage of their offensive snaps under-center than Detroit (53.5%).

Gibbs and the Lions rushing attack will be the greatest test yet for a New England run defense that has continually improved as the season has gone along. Through nine games, the Patriots have allowed the ninth-fewest rushing yards against per game (96.7) and yards per carry (3.9) while facing the eighth-fewest carries (25.0). They rank sixth in defensive EPA/rush (-0.12), seventh in rushing success rate allowed (39.1%), but only stuff runs at the 25th-highest rate (19.2%), and have missed the seventh-most tackles (37) over their last four games.

Corralling Gibbs will be priority number-one when New England takes the field against Detroit in Munich on Sunday, but that will be easier said than done against one of the NFL’s elite at the running back position. 

Much of Goff’s success in the passing game has come from the advantageous positions he’s been put in by Gibbs and the Lions’ rushing attack. Applying pressure on Goff must begin with limiting Gibbs’ effectiveness as a runner and slowing Detroit’s heavy-use of play-action — two areas the Patriots have struggled in defensively this season.

Through Detroit’s first eight games, Goff has used play-action at the third-highest rate in the NFL (34.4%, per PFF), and has been excellent when doing so. He’s completed 67 passes (second in the NFL) on 98 attempts (68.4%, ninth) with 885 passing yards (first), four touchdowns, one interception, a passer rating of 106.0 (ninth), and an EPA/play of +0.30 (sixth) when working off of play-action. 

Defensively, play-action has been a clear soft spot for the New England defense. They’ve allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 56-of-78 passing attempts (71.8%, 27th, per SūmerSports) with 806 yards (31st), five touchdowns (26th), one interception, four sacks, a passer rating of 121.0 (31st), and an EPA/dropback of +0.42 (31st) when using play-action.

Even while protecting Goff with a high rate of play-action, the Lions’ offensive line has still had their issues in protection. Detroit has allowed 19 total sacks and a sack rate of 6.4% (20th) on the season, with the tenth-highest pressure rate allowed (36.5%, per SūmerSports). Inviting additional rushers at or near the line of scrimmage, the Lions have been blitzed at the 10th-highest rate (32.1%), but Goff has excelled under such conditions.

When blitzed, Goff has completed 85-of-115 attempts (73.9%, leads NFL) with 917 yards (8.0 yards per attempt), nine touchdowns (tied for second), one interception, eight sacks (18.6% pressure-to-sack rate, 10th-highest) and a passer rating of 119.4 (second, per PFF).

Bringing the heat could still be a worthwhile strategy in containing Detroit’s downfield passing attack, however. Goff has only completed two big-time throws when blitzed (1.7%), versus 11 when not blitzed (6.7%), and he’s not a threat to scramble, with just a 2.0% scramble rate and 23 total scrambling yards on the season. Over his last two games, Goff has recorded his highest sack rates (13.8% in Week 8, 10.7% in Week 9) and pressure-to-sack rates (44.4% in Week 8, 30.0% in Week 9) of the year.

The Patriots’ affinity for blitzing has been apparent throughout the fall, posting the seventh-highest blitz rate (37.2%) to generate the third-highest pressure rate (42.4%, per SūmerSports) and fifth-highest sack rate (7.7%, 25 total sacks) in the league. That aggressive style was detrimental against the Green Bay Packers last week, but a one-game sample size of underwhelming results across the board is unlikely to force a massive schematic change just seven days later.

New England will need to prioritize sending extra bodies at the line of scrimmage to shut down Gibbs, and use those additional rushers to rattle Goff when he takes the ball himself on play-action fakes. That’ll lead to pressure, sacks, and restrict the Lions’ ability to push the ball deep. 

Detroit will also have the benefit of targeting one of the NFL’s elite at the wide receiver position, Amon-Ra St. Brown, when Goff does drop back to pass.

It didn’t take long for St. Brown to assert himself as the Lions’ number one receiver after being drafted in the fourth-round of the 2021 NFL Draft (No. 112 overall). As a rookie, he caught 90 passes on 119 targets with 912 yards and five touchdowns, and has not seen less than 140 targets, 105 receptions, or 1,150 receiving yards in a season since. St. Brown has scored at least 10 touchdowns in each of his last three seasons, and is on a similar trajectory this fall.

Through eight games of the 2026 regular season, St. Brown has hauled in 61 of his 86 targets with 657 receiving yards, five touchdowns, and a passer rating when targeted of 110.1. Only Jaxon Smith-Njigba (36.3%) has a higher target share than St. Brown (33.5%) this season. He’s recorded the fourth-most catches on the fifth-most targets league-wide, ranks ninth in receiving yards, and is tied for sixth in receiving touchdowns.

Splitting his reps from aligning primarily the slot (131, 45.8%) and out-wide (151, 52.8%), his multiple alignments and varied usages will make him a difficult cover all game. Most commonly used as an underneath or intermediate receiver, St. Brown is deadly efficient in both areas. He ranks as PFF’s highest-graded player on screen passes (93.0), and the second-highest graded player on intermediate throws 10-19 yards downfield (95.3). 

St. Brown will be the obvious matchup for Chistian Gonzalez, whose recent struggles were put under a microscope by an aggressive Green Bay passing attack. In Weeks 1-3, Gonzalez was targeted 17 times and allowed six receptions, 38 yards (6.3 yards per reception), broke up four passes, and accounted for a passer rating of 44.0 when targeted. Since returning from a shoulder injury in Week 6, he’s been targeted 24 times and allowed 21 receptions, 329 yards (15.7 yards per reception), two touchdowns, broke up one pass, and has accounted for a passer rating of 146.5 when targeted.

Gonzalez will need to return to form in order for the Patriots’ passing defense to continue playing the style of football that they’ve built an identity around. With Gonzalez as the focal point, New England has run man-coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL (35.8%) — enabling their high blitz percentages up-front with the belief that their coverage will hold up on the back-end. St. Brown will test him underneath early and often, forcing the cornerback to play physically at the line of scrimmage to win the battle.

When not targeting St. Brown underneath, Jameson Williams is the Lions’ preferred deep-threat downfield. The former No. 12 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft has the size (6’1”, 184 pounds) and speed (clocked a career-high 21.48 miles per hour in 2023, per Next Gen Stats) to take the top off of any defense, and his production has started to match the measurables over the last two seasons.

Williams entered 2026 fresh off of back-to-back 1,000-plus yard, seven touchdown seasons, and has continued on that pace this fall. He’s recorded 28 receptions on 46 targets, 468 yards (16.7 yards per reception), five touchdowns, and accounts for a passer rating of 125.0 when targeted. Of Williams’ 46 targets, 31 have come on passes of 10-plus air yards; he’s caught 17 of those with 376 yards and three touchdowns. He’ll constantly require safety help over-the-top, or else he’ll be on the receiving end of one of Goff’s deep shots.

Through nine games, the Patriots have been one of the stiffer defenses against opposing tight ends, allowing the 13th-fewest receptions (44), 11th-fewest yards (420), and second-fewest touchdowns (two) on the 11th-most targets (66) to the position across the league. Sam LaPorta will be another in a line of productive tight ends to test their meddle in that area.

The No. 34 overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft has been a valuable receiving option for Goff since entering the league, and he currently ranks second on the team in targets (49) and receptions (35) while ranking third in yards (399) and touchdowns (three). LaPorta’s 99.0 receiving grade on intermediate targets ranks third among all NFL tight ends, and his 128.6 passer rating when targeted ranks seventh.

Each of these players brings a very different skillset to the Lions’ offensive arsenal, and paired with Gibbs’ added value as a receiver, gives Goff dependable options to attack every level of the defense with great efficiency. 

As per usual in 2026, New England’s defense enters action without a significant contributor against Detroit’s prolific offense.

The Patriots will once again be without cornerback Carlton Davis III, who recently returned to the lineup after dealing with a neck injury first suffered in the season-opener, only to hurt his knee in last week’s loss. He did not participate in any of the team’s practices in Germany and was ruled out on Wednesday. While Davis is the only defender ruled out, three more players have been listed as questionable: Brenden Schooler (hamstring), Kevin Byard III (chest), and Charles Woods (hamstring).

On the Lions’ side, center Cade Mays followed a similar trajectory as Davis and was ruled out for Sunday morning’s contest early in the week. Amon-Ra St. Brown logged limited participation in practice all three days and has been designated as questionable, as was running back Sione Vaki, who missed Wednesday and Thursday’s sessions with an ankle injury and returned on Friday in a limited capacity. Jared Goff (chest) and running back Jacob Saylors (neck/hamstring) were both listed on the team’s injury report, but carry no game day status.

Detroit will challenge New England at all three levels. With an electric playmaker in the backfield and a high-volume supporting cast out wide, the Lions’ offense can create production independent of their weekly matchup, or morph to attack the weaknesses of their opponent. To contain them, the Patriots will need to showcase a much more resilient effort on the defensive side of the football than they have in their previous matchups against the NFC North, with added emphasis on limiting the effectiveness of the opposition’s rushing attack.

What will you be watching for when the New England defense takes on the Detroit offense on Sunday morning? Drop your thoughts in the comments below and join the conversation on Patriots Roundtable.

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