What to Watch For: New England Patriots Defense vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Offense | Week 3 2026

On the road again.

After a short, one-game home stint saw the New England Patriots defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers, 20-3, New England (1-1) takes to the road for two more weeks. First up is a trip down south, where the Patriots will face-off against the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) in a matchup between two AFC title contenders. 

Led by former first-overall pick quarterback Trevor Lawrence and second-year head coach Liam Coen, Jacksonville’s high-octane, offense-first approach has produced great results — and weekly fireworks on the scoreboard. With speed and talent all over the field, the Jaguars will present the most difficult challenge New England’s stout defense has seen in the first month of regular season play, and test the limits of the Patriots’ depth on that side of the ball. 

Here’s what we’ll be watching for when the New England defense lines up against the Jacksonville offense:

It was a tale of two weeks to start the regular season for Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars offense. 

In Jacksonville’s Week 1 win over the Cleveland Browns, 34-10, Lawrence starred with 18 completions on 23 attempts, 245 passing yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 150.6. The Jaguars jumped on Cleveland early and mounted a 31-0 advantage by halftime before taking a more conservative approach to the second half with an insurmountable lead. 

Week 2’s matchup at the Denver Broncos told a different story. Aligned across from one of the NFL’s elite defenses, the Jaguars were forced to play in a low-scoring, defensive struggle with Denver, and failed to come up with key plays late that could have swung the result in their favor. In the 20-13 loss, Lawrence completed 17 of 29 passing attempts with 189 yards, no touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 63.7. 

Jacksonville’s struggles to put up points in Week 2 were a rarity under their second-year head coach. In 2025, the Jaguars mounted a streak of 10 consecutive games with 20-plus points scored and eclipsed the 30-point mark seven times. 

Under Coen, Lawrence has taken major steps forward in his development and has been the driving force of a high-octane offensive attack that averaged 27.9 points per game (sixth in the NFL) and 337.4 yards per game (11th) last fall. 

Even with a tough outing against Denver under their belts, Jacksonville ranks fifth in the league in EPA/pass (+0.22) and third in passing success rate (54.5%), one year removed from a top-ten finish in both categories last fall (per SūmerSports). Always hunting for the big play, their offense ranks fourth in the league in explosive-play rate (16.7%), per PFF.

A positive result on the scoreboard will be predicated on stopping Lawrence and a passing attack that dissects defenses with aggressive downfield shots (16.3%, seventh in the NFL; 10.41 ADoT, third), a high-percentage of play-action (28.6%, 10th), and frequent screen passes (8.9%) to get their litany of playmakers involved quickly with space to work after the catch.

The Patriots will have their hands full on the outside with a deep core of Jaguars’ receiving options that each bring a different skillset to the table. Unlike their previous two opponents, who had clear-cut top options with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and D.K. Metcalf, Jacksonville’s approach is much more committal, but could present even more challenges.

Thus far, New England has leaned on Christian Gonzalez to run a high-percentage of man-to-man coverages, and has found great success in doing so. In a primarily nickel-based defense which has featured the highest percentage of five defensive back personnel packages around the league (89.6%), the Patriots have run the third-most man coverage in the NFL (42.5%) and their zone coverage rate has dropped to 56.2% (30th). 

New England has relied on Gonzalez and the rest of their cornerback corps to hold up in man-to-man on the outside, and they’ve delivered with a league-best -0.89 EPA/play and opposing passer rating of 36.3 on man-coverage snaps. Through two games, Gonzalez has been targeted 14 times in coverage. He’s only allowed five receptions (35.7% catch rate, fourth in the NFL among corners with at least 50% of coverage snaps played), 24 yards (4.8 yards per reception, third in the NFL), has broken up three passes, and accounts for a passer rating against of just 44.3 (fourth in the NFL, per PFF). 

The return of Carlton Davis III — who missed Week 2 with a neck injury — will be a bonus for the Patriots. In Week 1, Davis was targeted twice in coverage, allowed no catches, and accounted for a passer rating against of 39.6.

Gonzalez and Davis will see the majority of their reps against outside receivers former first-round pick Brian Thomas Jr. (No. 23 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft) and former New England standout Jakobi Meyers — who recently inked a three-year, $60 million contract extension to remain in Jacksonville. 

Thomas has shown the ability to be a number-one wide receiver in the past. In his rookie season, he recorded 87 receptions on 133 targets, 1,282 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns, but fell out of favor in Coen’s first season at the helm in 2025 with just 48 receptions on 91 targets, 707 yards, and two touchdowns. Meyers was acquired from the Las Vegas Raiders at the trade deadline last year, and registered 42 receptions on 61 targets, 483 yards, and three touchdowns in nine games with the Jaguars in 2025.

Neither have gotten off to hot starts in 2026. Thomas (six receptions on 12 targets, 80 yards) and Meyers (three receptions on three targets, 68 yards, one touchdown) have been outpaced by the emergent slot receiver Parker Washington, who has more production than both outside options combined (12 receptions on 18 targets, 181 yards, one touchdown). Washington’s 90.6 offensive grade ranks fourth of 90 qualifying wide receivers, per PFF, and his 39.1% target share ranks second in the NFL, only behind Smith-Njigba.

That could spell trouble for the Patriots’ secondary. Washington’s primary matchup will be New England’s Marcus Jones, whose playmaking ability is unquestionable, but leads to a feast-or-famine outcome against slot receivers on a frequent basis. Through two games, Jones has allowed six receptions on eight targets, 70 receiving yards, and a holds passer rating against of 101.0.

Jones’ start to the year has been on track with his 2025 season, when he allowed 44 receptions on 58 targets, 466 receiving yards, seven touchdowns, and allowed a passer rating against of 116.8. He did haul in three interceptions (one returned for New England touchdown) and registered four pass breakups in the 2025 regular season, but outside of the big plays, hasn’t held up consistently against productive slot receivers.

Lawrence will also target tight end Brenton Strange at a high rate — another problem area for the Patriots. In 2025, Strange accrued 46 receptions on 60 targets, 540 receiving yards, and three touchdowns in 12 regular season games, while New England gave up 97 receptions, 971 receiving yards, and six touchdowns to opposing tight ends. With safety Craig Woodson’s availability in question, that could be a part of Jacksonville’s gameplan to avoid Gonzalez and Davis on the perimeter.

The Jaguars have a wild card in the mix with 2025 second-overall pick Travis Hunter. The rare two-way player recorded 28 receptions on 45 targets, 298 receiving yards, and scored one touchdown in 2025, but Jacksonville has committed him to playing cornerback in a more full-time capacity this fall. He’s hauled in one reception for eight yards this season while playing 66 defensive snaps.

Through the air, the Jaguars have a variety of options to spread the ball around to, and a quarterback that can effectively distribute it to them. Jacksonville may not have the top-flight number-one receiver, but they may present the greatest challenge for the Patriots’ secondary yet.

The Jaguars ground game looks different than it did one year ago in terms of personnel, but their effectiveness and scheme both match-up well against a New England run defense that’s still looking to find solid ground. 

Last year, it was current New Orleans Saints’ running back and long-time Lawrence teammate Travis Etienne that led the way in the Jacksonville backfield with 260 carries, 1,107 rushing yards, seven touchdowns, and 36 receptions, 292 receiving yards and six receiving touchdowns. 

This fall, it’s been 2025 fourth-round pick (No. 104 overall) Bhayshul Tuten that’s taken over as the primary rusher for the Jaguars. Tuten’s elite speed (4.32-second 40-yard dash at the 2025 NFL Scouting Combine) and improved vision have been apparent with 28 carries, 131 rushing yards, and one touchdown through the first two weeks of the regular season. He’s also been a sure-handed receiver out of the backfield with three receptions on three targets and 19 receiving yards to begin the year. Tuten’s 85.6 offensive grade ranks second of 60 qualifying running backs, per PFF.

Schematically, Jacksonville has relied on a heavy-dose of outside zone rushes to get the offense moving on the ground. With a 32.7% outside zone rate, the Jaguars rank 12th in the NFL — and will place stress on a thinning group of edge defenders in New England led by second-year undrafted free agent Elijah Ponder and rookie Gabe Jacas. 

Overall, Jacksonville ranks 10th in the NFL in EPA/rush (-0.03) and eighth in rushing success rate (48.2%) while averaging 3.95 yards per carry. In 2025, they ranked sixth in the NFL with 49.5% of their rushes coming on outside the tackle-box concepts, and have continued that through the early portion of 2026 — where the Jaguars currently rank first in the NFL with 56.4% of rushes targeting the edges.

Teams with a willingness to commit to the run game and stick with it for 60 minutes have given the Patriots’ headaches, dating back through the 2025 season and evidenced in the team’s last two contests against the Seahawks — where Seattle rushed for 250 yards on 3.97 yards per carry in Super Bowl LX and the 2026 season-opener. Jacksonville will be one of those teams. Extremely balanced through two games, the Jaguars have passed on 50.5% of plays and run on 49.5% of plays.

New England’s run defense looked better against Pittsburgh last week with 23 rushing attempts for 91 yards, but game script and the Steelers’ own ineptitude in establishing a presence on the ground (-0.22 EPA/rush, 27th in the NFL) may prove to be fool’s gold. Through two games, the Patriots have graded-out as the 10th overall defense in success rate against the run (35.6%), but their 4.18 yards against per carry ranks 21st in the NFL and their stuffed run rate (five stuffed runs, 11.9%) ranks 29th.

Stopping Tuten and Jacksonville’s rushing attack will be key to making the offense one-dimensional and eliminating the threat of play-action shots that typically work off of outside zone fakes, but that will be easier said than done against a team that will almost assuredly look to put pressure on that weak point. 

Creating disruption in the backfield has been a key to New England’s early-season defensive success, and that will return again on Sunday.

A philosophical shift that began in the 2025 postseason has carried over into the early stages of the 2026 regular season and has led to much more consistent pressure from the Patriots. After blitzing on just 27.7% of snaps and generating pressure on just 37.8% of dropbacks throughout the 2025 regular season, New England began to dial-up blitzes at a much higher clip in the postseason, where they ranked first in the NFL in blitz rate (43.9%) and pressure rate (50.9%) en route to the league-lead in sacks (13), tackles for loss (23), and takeaways (six).

To begin the 2026 regular season, the Patriots have moved forward with a similar approach. Through the first two games of the year, New England ranks fifth in the NFL in blitz rate (41.1%) and fourth in pressure rate (46.6%). They’ve brought five rushers on 26.0% of snaps (ninth), six-plus on 15.1% of plays (fourth), and have used defensive line stunts on 27.4% of opposing dropbacks. As a result, the Patriots are tied for third in the league with six sacks, and boast the fifth-quickest time to pressure (2.47 seconds). 

On the opposing sideline, the Jaguars have been one of the best teams in the NFL at providing a clean pocket for their quarterback to operate from. In 2025, they ranked 11th in the league with a pressure rate of 36.3%. In 2026, that’s dropped to 33.9% and ranks sixth in the NFL.

Thus far, Lawrence is doing a much better job of not taking sacks in 2026 — last fall, he was sacked 44 times, or on 6.3% of dropbacks. In two games this fall, he’s only been wrangled-up three times, or on 5.4% of dropbacks and ranks 11th in the league in sack rate. When pressured, Lawrence is just 4-of-13 (30.8% completion percentage) with two touchdowns and an interception this fall.

Attacking Jacksonville on the interior of the offensive line will present the greatest advantages for the Patriots when bringing additional rushers. Rookie left guard Emmanuel Pregnon (49.5 offensive grade, 58th of 69 qualifying guards, per PFF) and right guard Ezra Cleveland (60.6 offensive grade, 36th) have been their weak links in pass protection with 44.5 and 41.5 pass-blocking grades on the year.

That aligns well for the Patriots, who have been the beneficiaries of more consistent contributions from defensive tackle Christian Barmore in 2026. His hot start to the year has featured a 20.9% pass-rush win-rate, 10.9% pressure rate, one strip-sack (returned for a touchdown by Ponder), and an 87.5 pass-rushing grade that ranks third among all NFL interior defensive linemen.

2025 standout Milton Williams has yet to make a significant impact (8.2% pressure rate, 6.5% pass-rush win-rate), but this could be the game for him to step back into the driver’s seat in the middle of the defensive front after a his 14.3% pressure rate including the postseason ranked second among all NFL defensive tackles last year (Jeffrey Simmons, 14.8%).

New England will have their work cut-out for them up-front, but their strengths lie where the Jaguars have deficiencies. The battle in the trenches will be key, and it’ll be up to the Patriots’ interior defenders to control the line of scrimmage and force Jacksonville into long down-and-distance situations.

Unlike New England, the Jaguars’ offense will be at full health this Sunday. 

Running back LeQuint Allen Jr. (hip), offensive linemen Robert Hainsey (elbow/groin) and Cole Van Lanen (knee), and wide receiver Jakobi Meyers (thumb) all had stints on the injury report during the week, but none of them carry a game status entering the weekend.

The Patriots defense, on the other hand, won’t be close to full strength when they take the field. Edge rushers Dre’Mont Jones (shoulder) and Quintayvious Hutchins (knee; placed on injured reserve on Friday) have already been ruled out after logging three consecutive “did not participates” (DNPs) during the week. Safety Craig Woodson (shoulder) carries a questionable designation after starting the week with two DNPs and returning Friday as a limited participant.

Defensive tackle DaQuan Jones (personal), and Carlton Davis III (neck) also spent time on the injury report this week, but carry no designation into Sunday. Safety/special teams ace Brenden Schooler also returned to practice this week, but must stay on the Non-Football-Injury (NFI) list for at least two more games and can return after Week 4.

In a clash of two AFC contenders, it will be strength-on-strength when New England’s defense lines up across from Jacksonville’s offense. To secure victory, the Patriots will need to establish a clear presence at the point of attack and force the Jaguars to involve their boundary receivers more prominently than others have done in recent weeks. If not, Jacksonville will be able to play to their strengths — which also happen to be the few weaknesses New England’s defense has displayed in two impressive showings to start the year.

What will you be watching for when the Patriots’ defense takes the field against Trevor Lawrence and a high-powered Jaguars’ offense? Drop your thoughts in the comments below and join the conversation on Patriots Roundtable.

–

Follow Eddie on Patriots Roundtable

Recent Articles:

- Jaguars’ Defense Could Spell Trouble for Drake Maye and Patriots’ Offense

- Patriots’ Romeo Doubs Showed Improvement, But More Is Needed As Top Receiving Option

- Defensive Scheme Analysis: New England Patriots Beginning 2026 Season on Historic Pace

- All-22 Review: Henderson Breaks Free, Defense Dominates in Patriots’ Win Over Steelers

- Examining Patriots’ Offensive Line Solutions Following Mike Onwenu Injury

- 10 Key Takeaways from the New England Patriots’ Win Over the Pittsburgh Steelers

Check out the Patriots Roundtable Podcast!

YouTube

Spotify

Apple Podcasts