What to Watch For: New England Patriots Offense vs. Chicago Bears Defense | Week 7 2026

The windy city awaits.

On Thursday night, the New England Patriots (4-2) will look to adapt the mantra of the “road warriors” once more, as they travel to take on an ascending Chicago Bears (4-2) team ripe with talent on both sides of the ball. A primetime matchup between 2024 top-three picks in Caleb Williams (No. 1 Overall) and Drake Maye (No. 3 overall) may steal headlines, but when Maye takes the field, his more direct adversaries will be a Jekyll and Hyde Chicago defense. For New England to come out on top, Maye will need to continue his recent successes and mask several deficiencies within the supporting cast around him.

Here’s what we’ll be watching for when the Patriots’ defense lines up across from the Bears’ offense:

After a slow start to his 2026 campaign, Drake Maye has returned to form as one of the NFL’s elite signal callers, and it’s paid dividends for New England en route to a current three-game winning streak.

Over the course of the last three weeks, Maye has completed 66-of-103 passing attempts (64.1% completion percentage) with 878 yards (292.7 yards per game), 10 touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 119.3, and added 103 yards and one touchdown rushing to those totals. During that span, his 94.7 offensive grade ranks first among all quarterbacks in the league (per PFF), as do his passer rating, passing touchdowns, and his +0.440 EPA/play.

Maye has thrown three-plus touchdowns in each game, and his streak is the longest for any Patriots’ quarterback since Tom Brady in 2014. 

That hot streak will be tested against a Chicago defense that has been one of the league’s better units against the pass this season. Under new defensive coordinator Dennis Allen (formerly the head coach of the New Orleans Saints), the Bears rank seventh in yards allowed per game (302.3), sixth in points allowed per game (19.8), and have seen the fewest offensive snaps against per game (50.2) while boasting the second-best third-down defense, allowing conversions on just 25.8% of attempts. 

Analytically, they’ve been just as good. Chicago’s defense is seventh in overall EPA/play against (-0.09) and passing EPA/play (-0.12), third in passing success rate against (38.9%). 

The numbers may look daunting on the surface, but the Bears have been susceptible to surrendering points against talented offenses. Their totals have been skewed by games with nine points allowed against the Carson Wentz-led Minnesota Vikings, seven points allowed against the sputtering Philadelphia Eagles, and 12 points allowed against the New York Jets. Elsewhere, Chicago allowed 37 points to the Carolina Panthers, 31 points to the Green Bay Packers, and 23 points to the Atlanta Falcons.

Much like New England’s defense, the Bears prefer to run a high percentage of man-coverage in the secondary (34.9%, fourth in the NFL) with a major in Cover 1 — their most frequently called coverage shell this season (per SūmerSports). On 53 snaps of Cover 1, Chicago has allowed 19 completions on 44 passing attempts (43.2%) with 234 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, a passer rating of 65.9, and an EPA/play of -0.270. 

Their most frequent change-up, Cover 3, also features a single-high safety, but has been far less efficient. On 50 snaps in Cover 3, the Bears have allowed 33 completions on 45 passing attempts (73.3%) with 452 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, a passer rating of 110.6, and an EPA/play of +0.178. They’ve run a single-high safety on 54.5% of dropbacks — the ninth-highest rate in the NFL — while rotating the safeties post-snap on just 29.6% of plays (19th).

Chicago may be excellent in coverage against most teams, but their affinity for single-high looks plays right into the hands of Maye and the Patriots’ passing attack. 

From Weeks 4-6, Maye has seen Cover 3 and Cover 1 more than any other shells. Against Cover 3 (40 snaps), he’s completed 21-of-33 passes (63.6%) with 296 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, a passer rating of 112.7, and an EPA/play of 0.229.

Last fall, Maye was top-of-class against Cover 1, completing 72-of-101 attempts (71.3%) with 1,072 yards, 11 touchdowns, three interceptions, and an EPA/play of +0.625. He’s had a relatively difficult time solving Cover 1 this season, but has improved over the last three games, completing 11-of-19 attempts (57.9%) with 138 yards, one touchdown, one interception, a passer rating of 76.2, and an EPA/play of +0.139. 

With two of the best man-beating receivers in the NFL now aligned on the perimeter, Maye’s passing efficiency and rushing effectiveness will both receive a boost. That could begin as early as Thursday night.

The bad news: A.J. Brown’s return from injured reserve was less-than triumphant in Week 6. The All-Pro wideout caught just three of his 10 targets for 27 yards, registered four drops, and accounted for a passer rating of 39.6 when targeted.

The good news: Brown’s first performance back from a high ankle sprain was an outlier in what has otherwise been an incredibly efficient summer with New England, and an uber-productive career. That was his floor, and he’ll only be closer to reaching his ceiling with each passing week. 

Brown’s matchup against the Chicago secondary could be a fruitful one for the Patriots. From 2022 through the start of the 2026 season, Brown led the NFL in receptions (129) and receiving yards (1,977) against man-to-man coverages, and ranked fourth in the league in receiving touchdowns (22, per Next Gen Stats). A bonafide man-beater on the outside has been sorely lacking for Maye in the passing game, and Brown will be just that as he works his way back to health.

As Maye searched for other receivers to lean on in Brown’s stead, a valuable connection began to blossom with DeMario Douglas. In his last two games, Douglas has accrued 11 receptions on 13 targets, 151 yards, and scored three touchdowns as an emerging slot receiver in the New England offense. 

After six games, Douglas now leads all Patriots’ receivers with 20 receptions on 30 targets, is tied with Romeo Doubs for the team-lead in touchdown receptions (three), and ranks second behind Doubs in receiving yards (233).

Against man coverages, Douglas has registered five receptions on six targets (83.3% reception rate, fifth in the NFL, minimum five targets), with 69 yards (sixth), and scored one touchdown (per PFF). His 3.8 average yards of separation rank ninth among all wide receivers (per Next Gen Stats), giving Maye a consistently available target to work to when deeper throws aren’t available.

With a rotating cast of other wide receivers in-and-out of the lineup, Maye has also rekindled his chemistry with Hunter Henry — who last week passed Russ Francis (3,157) for third-place in franchise history with 3,198 receiving yards at the tight end position, and tied Francis for third-place in franchise history for tight end touchdowns (28).

Over his last three games, Henry has now accumulated 12 receptions on 14 targets, 154 yards, and two touchdowns, and has been a dependable option for Maye in critical situations. He’ll need to shine through once again against a Bears defense that has only allowed 24 receptions on 35 targets (68.6%), 269 yards, and two touchdowns against tight ends all season.

New England’s offensive line will be in dire straits when they take the field on Thursday night. 

Already down their top two right guards (Mike Onwenu and Greg Van Roten), the Patriots also lost their third option — Ben Brown — to a knee injury on Sunday. At left guard, Alijah Vera-Tucker exited with a hamstring injury, and at right tackle, Morgan Moses left the game with an ankle injury.

Neither interior player is expected to suit up against Chicago, leaving the likely starters as Walter Rouse (left guard) and Matt Pryor (right guard). Luckily for New England, they both held up better than expected when called upon: Pryor graded out as the second-best pass-blocking lineman for the Patriots on Sunday (79.8, 24 pass-blocking snaps, per PFF), while Rouse landed third (78.1, three pass-blocking snaps). The Patriots allowed no sacks on Sunday.

First-round pick Caleb Lomu (No. 28 overall) will also likely factor in, as he’s turned unexpected opportunity into a potential breakout at both tackle positions over the last two weeks. Lomu totaled 59 pass blocking snaps (29 at left tackle, 30 at right tackle), and allowed no sacks, no quarterback hits, one pressure, and registered a pass-blocking efficiency grade of 99.0 and a pass-blocking grade of 80.3. 

During New England’s winning streak, Maye has been sacked just twice and has registered a pressure-to-sack rate of just 4.2%, making effective use of his legs and pocket mobility to extend plays and create positive outcomes. His +0.130 EPA/play against pressure ranks fourth in the NFL over the last three weeks, and he’s thrown for 238 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions on such snaps (per PFF). 

Chicago is tied for fourth in the NFL with 17 sacks on the season and ranks second in the league with a 9.0% sack rate. They’ve applied pressure on 40.2% of opposing dropbacks (13th, per SūmerSports) while blitzing at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL (39.7%). But bringing the heat may not be the best idea against the Patriots.

Another area of marked improvement, Maye has been excellent against the blitz during the 2026 regular season. On the year, he’s completed 45-of-72 passing attempts (62.5%) with 621 yards, four touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 102.8 when blitzed.

The Bears will come from all angles and with a rotation of bodies, as they currently have nine players with at least one sack and four defenders with at least two. Edge rusher Austin Booker (4.0 sacks) leads the team, followed by Dayo Odeyingbo (3.0, placed on injured reserve on October 17). After missing the first five games of the season with a right calf injury, defensive back Kyler Gordon returned to the lineup and registered 3.0 sacks last week alone.

New England’s replacements will be tested by a pass-rush that has been scheme and blitz-dependent, and will force Maye to make timely decisions with the football. If they’re able to hold-up against the heat, openings in coverage could be present downfield. 

After struggling to establish a consistent presence on the ground for the first three weeks of the regular season, the Patriots have turned up the production dial during their last three games. With 143 yards in Week 4, 165 yards in Week 5, and 148 yards in Week 6, the balance New England’s offense has been longing to achieve is finally in sight, but it’s come from a rotation that few expected.

Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson continue to work as the leaders of the backfield, but Corey Kiner has proved to be an integral part of their stable of rushers with back-to-back 50-plus yard rushing performances. His career-high 57 yards against New York featured a string of eight consecutive carries for 42 yards on a put-away drive in the fourth quarter.

On the season, the Patriots have averaged 130.7 rushing yards per game (seventh) on the second-most rushing attempts per game (31.2), and haven’t been terribly efficient in doing so. They rank 15th in EPA/rush (-0.06, per SūmerSports) and 13th in rushing success rate (42.2%). 

Maye’s legs have been a big factor in that, as well. He’s gained 185 yards rushing on 34 attempts and scored one touchdown, and will figure to play a role against a man-coverage happy defense in Chicago once again.

A top-ten unit against the pass, the Bears have had more difficulties stopping opponents’ rushing attacks. Overall, they’ve allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards against per game (90.5), but have also faced the fewest attempts against (20.2), and rank 24th in yards allowed per carry (4.49), 19th in EPA/rush (-0.05), and 25th in rushing success rate (43.8%). They’ve only stuffed 22 runs on the season (28th) and their 19.6% stuff rate ranks 21st in the NFL.

If New England can stay committed to the run, opportunities will present themselves against a Chicago team that has deterred opponents from establishing a ground game through time of possession and game script. The Patriots will need similarly strong performances from their backup interior offensive linemen and a stable split in the running back rotation on a short week to do so. 

Just as it looked like the New England offense was beginning to round back into form, injury struck again.

On Monday, the Patriots placed Romeo Doubs on injured reserve with a shoulder injury suffered on his 42-yard touchdown reception in the first quarter of the team’s win over the Jets. New England also lost offensive linemen Ben Brown (knee), Morgan Moses (ankle), and Alijah Vera-Tucker (hamstring) during the game.

With consecutive missed practices to start the week, neither Brown nor Vera-Tucker are expected to suit up for the Patriots on Thursday night. Moses has been a limited participant at practice — an encouraging sign for his potential availability. 

New England also listed A.J. Brown (ankle) as a limited participant on Monday and Tuesday, while Marcus Bryant (ankle, designated to return from injured reserve), Will Campbell (knee), TreVeyon Henderson (ankle), and Drake Maye (right shoulder) all made appearances on the injury report, but were full participants each day.

For the Bears, linebackers T.J. Edwards (hamstring) and Jack Sanborn (concussion) did not participate in Monday or Tuesday’s sessions. Rookie linebacker Keyshaun Elliott (quadricep) and cornerback Tyrique Stevenson (hip) were each listed as full participants. Elliott last saw action in Week 5, while Stevenson missed Week 6. 

Maye and the Patriots’ offense have been finding their rhythm during the team’s three-game winning streak. With his top option back on the perimeter, the ceiling for the group should continue to rise — even if the early returns weren’t as expected last Sunday. New England will need to put their best product on the field once more to take advantage of a Chicago defense that’s been prone to allowing talented opponents to put up points on the scoreboard. If not, they could be in for a long evening against a unit that’s had just as many stifling showings.

What will you be watching for when the Patriots’ offense lines up across from the Bears’ defense on Thursday night? Drop your thoughts in the comments below and join the conversation on Patriots Roundtable.

–

Follow Eddie on Patriots Roundtable

Recent Articles:

- What to Watch For: New England Patriots Defense vs. Chicago Bears Offense | Week 7 2026

- Patriots’ Caleb Lomu Is Turning Unexpected Opportunity Into a Potential Breakout

- All-22 Review: Drake Maye’s Three Touchdowns Lift Patriots Over Jets

- 10 Key Takeaways from the New England Patriots’ Narrow Win Over the New York Jets

Check out the Patriots Roundtable Podcast!

YouTube

Spotify

Apple Podcasts