What to Watch For: New England Patriots Offense vs. Green Bay Packers Defense | Week 9 2026

Send ‘em packing.

The New England Patriots (5-3) and Green Bay Packers (5-3) are set for an interconference showdown at Gillette Stadium this Sunday in a matchup of two teams with identical trajectories and mirrored identities this fall. After another two game road stint, some home cooking is in order for New England — who will welcome back Tom Brady in the broadcast booth, induct Rob Gronkowski into the team Hall of Fame, and honor the 10-year anniversary of the Super Bowl LI Championship as part of the game’s festivities. 

But when the action begins, the Patriots will put their unblemished home record to the test against a defense that has been stout against opposing offenses all season. New England’s air-raid will face several challenges on the road to victory in a contest that’s likely to turn into a downfield aerial assault on both sides. Whichever team can limit mistakes will likely emerge on the right end of this one, and that’s been a more difficult proposition for the Patriots this season.

Here’s what we’ll be watching for when New England’s offense squares off against the Green Bay defense:

Drake Maye has reclaimed his MVP-caliber form over the course of the last five games, but the Packers’ defense will likely present challenges that he hasn’t had to face in the last month-plus.

Since Week 4, Maye has been at-or-near the top of the NFL leaderboards in every major statistical category. He’s completed 106-of-154 passing attempts (68.8%) with 1,398 yards (9.1 yards per attempt), 14 passing touchdowns, two interceptions, a passer rating of 122.2, and an EPA/play of +0.37, while adding 31 carries, 142 rushing yards, and three rushing touchdowns to his totals.

In Week 8, Maye extended his streak of consecutive games with at least three total touchdowns to five, and became the first player to hit that mark for the Patriots since Tom Brady in 2007. Both of Maye’s touchdown passes were at least 40 yards, marking the first time since Brady in 2017 that a quarterback has thrown multiple 40-yard touchdown passes in a game for the franchise. In doing so, Maye also extended his NFL-best mark of 14 touchdown passes of at least 30-yards since the beginning of the 2025 regular season.

A matchup between Maye and Jordan Love pits two of the NFL’s most aggressive downfield passers against each other. Maye and Love are tied for the league-lead in completions of at least 20 air yards (17), but New England’s gunslinger has been much more efficient with the shots he’s taken deep. Maye has 18 fewer attempts (34) than Love (52), completing those downfield throws at a 50.0% rate with seven touchdowns, four interceptions, a big-time-throw rate of 39.5%, and a passer rating of 95.8 — the highest of any quarterback with over 30 deep throw attempts.

When Maye takes on the Green Bay defense, he’ll be aligning across from one of the league’s best against the pass — but a scheme that may provide openings for him to exploit.

The Packers have allowed the 10th-fewest points per game (20.5) and eighth-fewest passing yards per game (204.0) while facing the sixth-highest number of attempts per game (35.5). Keen to generating turnovers, their 15 total takeaways top the NFL, and their 10 interceptions rank second. 

Analytically, Green Bay has been even better. They rank fifth in defensive EPA/play (-0.12) and EPA/pass (-0.12), but their overall success rate lags behind at 16th (43.1%), as does their passing success rate allowed (43.1%, 12th, per SūmerSports). The Packers have allowed the fourth-lowest yards-per-attempt (6.22), fifth-lowest ADoT (6.73), and have registered the fifth-most pass breakups in the league (43). 

In coverage, Green Bay runs the ninth-highest percentage of zone coverages around the NFL (80.1%) while showing a two-high shell at the fourth-highest rate (67.6%) in an attempt to eliminate the threat of the deep ball. They also frequently rotate their safety alignments post-snap (32.4%, fourth) to slow the processing speed of opposing quarterbacks in the pocket.

Those figures may paint the picture of an opponent who is able to shut down the pass, and in large part, the Packers have. But their preferred coverage shells play right into Maye’s hands. 

Through eight games, Green Bay has run Cover 4 (84 dropbacks) more than any other coverage against the pass. They’ve allowed 50 completions on 77 attempts (64.9%), with 462 yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions, an opposing passer rating of 83.4, and an EPA/dropback of -0.08. That’s been closely followed by Cover 3 (72 dropbacks) and Cover 2 (66 dropbacks) as their most frequent change-ups. 

When running Cover 3, the Packers have allowed 43 completions on 63 attempts (68.3%) with 507 yards, no touchdowns, one interception, a passer rating of 85.9, and an EPA/dropback of -0.12. In Cover 2, they’ve allowed 35 completions on 58 attempts (60.3%) with 313 yards, no touchdowns, three interceptions, a passer rating of 53.3, and an EPA/dropback of -0.29. 

As expected, one of the league’s best passing defenses puts up good numbers against opponents when running their best coverages — but those shells just-so happen to align with Maye’s best splits as a passer this season.

Maye has seen Cover 3 more than any other coverage this season, and has completed 51-of-75 passing attempts (68.0%) with 679 passing yards, five touchdowns, two interceptions, a passer rating of 107.6, and an EPA/dropback of +0.12. 

Against Green Bay’s preferred Cover 4 shell, he’s completed 28-of-37 passing attempts (75.7%) with 311 yards, three touchdowns, one interception, a passer rating of 115.9, and an EPA/dropback of +0.14. Versus Cover 2, he’s completed 26-of-32 passing attempts (81.3%) with 270 yards, no touchdowns, no interceptions, a passer rating of 101.8, and an EPA/dropback of +0.23.

If the Packers stick to what they’ve known over the last eight weeks, they may be playing with fire against Maye and a red-hot Patriots’ passing attack that’s feasted on those coverages of late. New England will need to work to value their possessions better and eliminate the giveaways that have plagued the offense this season (15, second-most in the NFL), but if they’re able to do so, openings should present themselves against an otherwise stout defense.

The Patriots will be shorthanded on the boundary once again when they take the field against Green Bay. A.J. Brown has already been ruled out for Sunday with a lingering knee injury and Romeo Doubs remains on injured reserve, forcing New England to explore other options out wide without their top two options available. 

There is some room for optimism for the Foxboro faithful along the boundary, however — Mack Hollins (calf) returned to practice this week, officially opening his 21-day return window from injured reserve. Hollins has yet to be activated to the 53-man roster and his limited participation in practice throughout the week would suggest that suiting up for game day may be a long-shot, but he’ll be a welcome presence whenever he’s able to retake the field.

At the time of Hollins’ departure, he ranked as the Patriots’ leading receiver in targets (20), receptions (15), and yards (209), and continues to be a trusted target for Maye in the passing game with a large frame, wide catch radius, and dependable hands. Through New England’s early-season offensive struggles, the chemistry between Maye and Hollins was a lone bright spot, and a stable source of production when all else failed. 

In lieu of his top playmakers being shelved for the greater part of the regular season, Maye’s improving chemistry with a wide range of skill position players has been a sticking point.

Through the turbulence at wide receiver, Maye’s consistent connection with DeMario Douglas has been especially prevalent. A building block of the offense that had been slow to find level ground through the pair’s first full season-plus together, Douglas has emerged as an explosive playmaker that generates constant separation when New England’s offense has needed it most.

With recent successes stacking, Douglas enters Week 9 as the Patriots’ leading wide receiver in receptions (26), targets (37), yards (332), and touchdowns (four, career-best). Per Next Gen Stats, Douglas ranks seventh among all wide receivers in the NFL with an average of 3.9 yards of separation generated. Per PFF, Douglas is New England’s most frequently targeted receiver against man coverage (13 targets), his average yards per route run of 3.12 yards against man-to-man looks ranks fourth in the league, and his passer rating when targeted under such conditions (134.0) is the 10th-highest. He’s registered the third-most receptions in the NFL without a drop this season.

As the Patriots’ offense has heated up over the last month-plus, so has Douglas. In his last four games, he's has caught 17 of 20 targets with 250 receiving yards (14.7 yards per reception), four touchdowns, and leads the NFL with a perfect 158.3 passer rating when targeted. 

Douglas' increasing role will likely continue to play a major factor this weekend against Packers’ slot cornerback/safety Javon Bullard, who has allowed 24 receptions (94th of 99 safeties) on 36 targets (96th), 235 yards (91st), and a passer rating of 112.6 (59th) when targeted this season. Bullard has also allowed a touchdown in coverage in each of Green Bay’s last three games, but ranks second among safeties with five pass breakups — a risk/reward proposition that Maye is sure to test early on.

Sunday will also represent yet another opportunity for Kyle Williams to become more involved in the offense on a per-snap basis. Williams played a season-high 50 snaps in Week 8 and recorded a 43-yard touchdown reception, but the explosive play was the only time he was targeted in the game. Even with the increased snap share, he was outpaced by Efton Chism III once again in snaps (53), targets (five), and receptions (five). 

Each will have their chances to contribute in a more significant fashion against the Packers, as will rookie tight end Eli Raridon. With Hunter Henry’s status in jeopardy after logging just eight snaps last weekend, Raridon saw his most extensive action as New England’s top tight end, but the results didn’t follow. He recorded just one reception for five yards on four targets and was flagged twice for false starts. 

Prior to his lapse in performance, Raridon was on an upward swing. Entering Week 8, Raridon led all NFL tight ends with three 30-plus yard receptions. On deep targets 20-plus yards downfield, he’s caught each of his three targets for 91 yards, one touchdown, and a perfect passer rating when targeted of 158.3. His 99.1 receiving grade on such throws still stands as a league-best mark for the position, per PFF.

Leaning on Raridon (or Henry, if available), may be a tall task against Green Bay. The Packers have allowed the third-fewest receiving yards (282), fourth-fewest receptions (32), and fight-fewest targets (49) to opposing tight ends this season.

In order to sustain the efficient showings Maye has strung together over the last five weeks, he’ll need to be deliberate in spreading the ball around to a variety of playmakers still vying for a larger role within the Patriots offense. That will be much more of a challenge this Sunday than it was when they last took the field.

The second-half of the battle through the air when New England has possession of the football will be reducing the effectiveness of a Green Bay pass-rush that has seen production from a host of different players this season. 

The Packers are tied (with the Patriots) for sixth in the NFL with 22 sacks on the year. Their numbers fall off on a per-snap basis, however, as their sack rate (6.8%) ranks 12th, and their pressure rate (38.7%) ranks 18th (per SūmerSports), but what they’ve been able to accomplish without the services of All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons (designated to return from injured reserve with a torn left ACL and meniscus) has been promising.

Green Bay has 13 different defenders who have recorded at least 0.5 sacks this season, while only blitzing at the 12th-highest rate in the NFL (31.9%). Their pass-rush has been multiple in personnel and usage, sending four rushers at the 10th-lowest rate (67.9%), five rushers at the ninth-highest rate (24.5%), six-plus rushers at the 11th-highest rate (7.4%), and using stunts at the 10th-highest rate (30.1%).

Lukas Van Ness, the Packers’ first-round pick in 2023 (No. 13 overall), has already set a new career-best single-season mark with his team-leading 4.5 sacks and 16.9% pass-rush win-rate on the year, and has tied a career-high with 33 tackles entering Week 9. Van Ness’ six tackles for loss are also tied for the team-lead, his 28 total pressures rank 13th in the NFL, and his 77.8 pass-rush grade ranks 12th of 111 qualifying edge rushers (per PFF). 

Using a near-even split between their first and second units up-front, Green Bay has been able to keep their front line fresh and productive all season. Along their defensive line, Van Ness has played the highest percentage of snaps (65%), followed by Karl Brooks (62%), Devonte Wyatt (49%), Barryn Sorrell (48%), Chris McClellan (45%), Dani Dennis-Sutton (44%), and Brenton Cox Jr. (44%). 

Cox (1.0 sacks, 22 pressures), Dennis-Sutton (2.5 sacks, 20 pressures), and Sorrell (1.5 sacks, 11 pressures) have been their most productive on the edge, with Wyatt (3.0 sacks, 8 pressures) and Brooks (no sacks, 9 pressures) anchoring the interior.

A Patriots’ offensive line that’s been decimated by injuries has been improving over the course of the last month, and they’ll need to be at their best against the Packers’ front. On the season, New England has allowed pressure at the third-highest rate in the league (46.5%), but that number has dropped modestly to 44.1% (26th) in their last four games, even with a rotating cast of bodies at each guard spot. 

To that end, the Patriots may have finally found a combination that works in the absence of their starters along the interior. The return of Ben Brown into the lineup was a boost for the New England front in the second half of their Week 8 win over the Miami Dolphins. Brown has played 49% of the offensive snaps for New England this season, and has allowed no sacks, a pressure rate of 5.0%, and recorded a pass-blocking efficiency grade of 97.3 on the season.

Brown’s been reliable over the course of the last two seasons as a spot-starter, but new addition Matt Pryor’s recent success may overshadow his contributions. In three games played with two starts, Pryor has allowed one sack, but just three total pressures, a 3.4% pressure rate, recorded a pass-blocking efficiency grade of 97.7, and a pass-block win-rate of 96.6%. His 86.3 pass-blocking grade on the season ranks first of 75 qualifying guards in the NFL (per PFF). 

The Patriots will need a similarly efficient outing from their offensive line to contain the Green Bay pass-rush, and another excellent performance by Maye when facing pressure. Since the beginning of October, Maye has completed 35-of-57 passing attempts (61.4%) with 489 yards (8.6 yards per attempt), six touchdowns, no interceptions, a passer rating of 124.1, and an EPA/play of +0.20 when under pressure. His 90.7 PFF grade when under pressure during that span ranks number one among all NFL quarterbacks.

More of the same will be required this Sunday.

The Packers will present an equally difficult challenge against the run for a New England team still trying to achieve stable results in that area.

On the season, Green Bay ranks 15th in the NFL in rushing yards against per game (110.9) while facing the 11th-highest number of attempts against per game (28.5). Their 3.9 yards per carry allowed ranks 13th. The baseline numbers are representative of a middling rushing defense, and some more advanced metrics blur that line even further. 

The Packers rank sixth in the NFL in defensive EPA/rush (-0.12), but allow the 10th-highest rushing success rate to opponents (43.0%). Their 0.75 yards allowed before contact per rush ranks second league-wide, but their 3.14 yards allowed after contact per rush lands at 23rd overall. Green Bay leads the NFL with 52 stuffed runs, ranks fifth overall in stuffed run rate (24.6%), and have given up explosive runs at the sixth-lowest rate (7.9%). Their 10 rushing touchdowns allowed is the third-most in the NFL.

Their inconsistencies in season-long metrics track with a unit that had several highs and lows based on the game and opponent. The Atlanta Falcons (242 rushing yards), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (141), Detroit Lions (119), and Minnesota Vikings (107) all eclipsed the 100-yard mark against the Packers, while the Carolina Panthers (82), Chicago Bears (81), New York Jets (67), and Dallas Cowboys (48) were held under 100 as a team. Chicago is an outlier here, but generally, offenses with good rushing attacks have been able to gain ground on Green Bay’s front seven, while struggling units have found it difficult to do so. 

Where the Patriots fall on that spectrum remains a mystery. 

New England has only been held under 100 team rushing yards twice this season, and their three lowest rushing totals of the year coincide with their three losses: at the Seattle Seahawks (109 rushing yards), at the Jacksonville Jaguars (83), and at Chicago (70). 

Through eight games, the Patriots rank 12th in rushing yards per game (123.1) on the fourth-most attempts per game (30.0) and the 17th-highest yards per carry (4.1). Their EPA/rush (-0.07) ranks 15th, while their 41.3% rushing success rate is good for 19th in the NFL. 

Maye’s scrambling totals have skewed New England’s rushing numbers more positively, but their 1.21 yards before contact per rush (18th), 2.89 yards after contact per rush (16th), 46 stuffed runs (fifth-most), and 21.7% stuffed run rate (22nd) more accurately depict their shortcomings between-the-tackles. 

Always a danger to extend plays with his legs, Maye’s 219 rushing yards from scrambles are the second-highest total in the NFL, his three rushing touchdowns are tied for second, while his 27 scramble attempts are the most in the league and his 9.7% scramble rate is the fourth-highest. In contrast, the Packers have only allowed 94 rushing yards from scrambles all season — the 12th fewest in the league. 

If Maye’s legs are taken out of the gameplan, the Patriots’ backfield workhorses will need to step up to the challenge. Rhamondre Stevenson was able to do so against Miami last weekend, posting season-best marks in attempts (19) and rushing yards (82), but the consistency hasn’t been there for New England’s running back room as a whole on a weekly basis.

Of running backs with at least 25 touches this season, Stevenson ranks 27th in EPA/rush (-0.07) and 35th in success rate (39.6%). But this is far from a Stevenson issue. TreVeyon Henderson’s -0.25 EPA/rush ranks 61st and his 38.5% success rate is 37th, while Corey Kiner’s -0.18 EPA/rush is 50th and his 40.5% success rate ranks 33rd. 

With each of the Patriots’ rushers facing similar inefficiencies, the more tangible explanation is a less-than-stellar showing from the New England offensive line in paving the way for their backfield running mates. Of the Patriots’ substitutes along the interior, only Matt Pryor (68.3) boasts a run-blocking grade greater-than 60.0, with Walter Rouse (57.2), Ben Brown (51.5), and Greg Van Roten (27.8) each struggling to generate push off of the line of scrimmage on designed runs. 

Against a highly regarded passing defense, balance will be necessary for New England to sustain success for a full 60 minutes on Sunday. They’ll need to stay committed to the run — even if the results aren’t promising early — and find ways to free up space for Stevenson and the rest of the backfield to keep them in manageable downs-and-distances. But how this portion of the matchup plays out is still very much in question. 

The Patriots continue to work through a mass of injuries on the offensive side of the football, and Sunday will be another in a line of games that will require them to overcome that misfortune.

A.J. Brown (ankle/knee) and TreVeyon Henderson (illness) have already been ruled out after logging three straight “did not participate” (DNP) days at practice this week, while Hunter Henry’s status is also in doubt after missing Wednesday and Thursday’s sessions. Henry (foot) returned in limited fashion on Friday and has been listed as questionable for game day, but his involvement if available will remains to be seen.

New England did designate two players to return from injured reserve this week: Mack Hollins and Greg Van Roten. Each were limited participants in practice all week, but neither have been activated to the 53-man roster to this point.

This week did bring more encouraging news on that end, as Marcus Bryant was activated to the 53-man roster on Tuesday after beginning the season on injured reserve. He was not listed on the injury report this week, signaling that he’ll be ready to go for the first time this fall. Bryant will add additional insurance behind the Patriots’ starters at offensive tackle, joining Caleb Lomu and regular game day inactive Dametrious Crownover in the room.

That additional insurance may be needed to bolster depth behind Morgan Moses, who continues to battle his way through a foot injury that has kept him limited at practice for the vast majority of the regular season. He has been able to suit up for each game this season, but has been listed as questionable for Week 9. 

On Green Bay’s side, edge rusher Micah Parsons continues to work his way back into form and is eyeing a return later this month, but has already been ruled out for Sunday. Linebacker Zaire Franklin (shin) has also been ruled out for the third consecutive game. Cornerback Keisean Nixon (groin) is officially listed as questionable for the Packers after missing Thursday’s practice and logging limited participation on Wednesday and Friday. Safety Javon Bullard (personal) did not participate on Friday, but carries no game day status.

New England’s offense will once again field a shorthanded supporting cast around Maye this weekend, and will need to find ways to overcome one of the NFL’s stingiest passing defenses in Green Bay when they do. Still, Maye’s continued efficiency and his affinity for defeating the coverages the Packers specialize in may give the home team the upper-hand in a battle that could very well tilt in either direction. 

The Patriots will need to focus on eliminating the back-breaking turnovers that have plagued them throughout the season to put themselves in an advantageous position down the stretch, and promising recent improvements on the ground could aid in that cause. If New England is able to find balance and stay ahead of the chains, the downfield passing attack may be able to exploit the very few cracks found in Green Bay’s secondary and claim victory.

What will you be watching for when the Patriots’ offense lines up across from the Packers’ defense on Sunday evening? Drop your thoughts in the comments below and join the conversation on Patriots Roundtable.

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