What to Watch For: New England Patriots Offense vs. Las Vegas Raiders Defense | Week 5 2026

This Sunday, the autumn wind will sweep the Raiders into Foxboro.

In Week 5, the New England Patriots (2-2) welcome the Las Vegas Raiders (3-1) to Gillette Stadium in the first “throwback” game of the 2026 regular season. And while the first three weeks of the year posed Las Vegas as a villain that’s big and bold, a reversal of fortune last Sunday had New England’s offense singing a rollicking song while the Raiders were knocked ‘round and upside down. 

Even so, Las Vegas defense enters action with the league-lead in takeaways (nine) and can make opponents shiver and quake if given the opportunity. To swagger boisterously by the game’s end on Sunday, the Patriots’ offense will need to continue building upon the success of their Week 4 victory over the Buffalo Bills, while the Raiders look to rob them of their gold. 

Here’s what we’ll be watching for when the New England offense lines up against the Las Vegas defense:

Drake Maye’s Week 4 resurgence played a large part in the Patriots’ win at Buffalo, and he’ll need to put together a similar performance for the team to have success against the Raiders.

Last week, Maye engineered separate touchdown drives of 12 plays, 97 yards; 14 plays, 73 yards; 6 plays, 63 yards; and 8 plays, 73 yards, lifting New England to a three-for-three showing in the red zone after entering the game dead-last in the league in points per possession (0.97) and red zone efficiency (16.7%). 

He finished the game 22-of-37 passing with 269 passing yards, three touchdowns, one interception, one sack, one lost fumble, and a passer rating of 97.7, while also leading the team with eight carries and 54 yards rushing. The showing was good enough to earn him AFC Offensive Player of the Week Honors for the first time this season.

Much like his 2025 campaign, Maye carved up the Bills’ Cover 3-heavy defensive scheme, completing 10-of-15 passes with 140 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, and an EPA/dropback of +0.185 (per SūmerSports). This week, he’ll face more of the same — with one interesting caveat. 

Under first-year Las Vegas head coach Klint Kubiak (formerly the offensive coordinator of the Seattle Seahawks) and defensive coordinator Rob Leonard, the Raiders have employed a very similar coverage philosophy to Seattle — and have had great success in doing so. Through four weeks of the regular season, Las Vegas leads the NFL with nine takeaways, just as Maye tops the league with nine giveaways.

The Raiders have used Cover 3 as their base shell. On 50 dropbacks, they’ve allowed 24 completions on 40 attempts (60.0% completion percentage), 282 yards, and one touchdown with three interceptions and an EPA/play of -0.232. Much like the Seahawks, Cover 6 has been their most frequent change-up. On 24 dropbacks in Cover 6, they’ve allowed 12 completions on 21 attempts (57.1%) with no touchdowns, no interceptions, and an EPA/play of +0.178. 

The Cover 3/Cover 6 rotation has previously been viewed as a blueprint for stopping Maye, but his past and current triumphs against Cover 3 and his newfound answers for Cover 6 may begin to tell a different story this Sunday. Since the season-opener in Seattle, Maye has faced Cover 6 on 14 dropbacks, and has completed 8-of-10 passing attempts with 122 passing yards and an EPA/play of +0.303. 

Week 5 will present Maye with another opportunity to showcase his growth against of Cover 6. He'll have to do so against a unit that ranks sixth overall in EPA/play against the pass (-0.11) and changes their pre-snap and post-snap coverage presentation frequently, using the league’s second-highest rate of safety rotations on 41.8% of plays. 

The Patriots will once again look for marked improvements on the line of scrimmage after garnering much better results in spite of their inconsistencies in Week 4.

In the first three games of the 2026 season, New England allowed pressure at the second-highest rate in the NFL (48.1% of dropbacks) and sacks at the fourth-highest rate (8.5%), while being blitzed at just the 23rd-highest rate (26.4%) — making life difficult for Maye in the pocket and for Patriots’ runners to find daylight on the ground. Through that stretch, Maye completed 12-of-28 attempts (42.9% completion percentage) with 183 yards, no touchdowns, three interceptions, eight sacks, and a passer rating of 25.4 (per PFF) when under pressure. On such plays, he registered a 10.6% turnover-worthy play rate, which ranked third-highest in the NFL among qualifying quarterbacks. 

Then, the win at Buffalo happened. And while the performance from New England’s offensive line wasn’t miraculously cured, the returns from Maye were. Against the Bills, Maye was pressured on on 18 dropbacks and completed 6-of-13 passes (held an adjusted completion percentage of 75.0%), with 66 yards passing, two touchdowns, no interceptions, scrambled four times, picked up six first downs, and registered a passer rating of 101.3 and a pressure-to-sack rate of just 5.6% (per PFF). On the day, he only committed on turnover-worthy play — even while aggressively pushing the ball downfield with an Average Depth of Target (ADoT) of 12.3 yards. 

The Patriots have now surrendered pressures on 48.6% of Maye’s dropbacks (31st), allowed a sack on 6.8% of those plays (20th), and have been blitzed on 29.1% of passing plays (18th). 

That’ll play right into the hands of an aggressive Las Vegas front-seven, whose base four-man rush has helped the team generate pressure on 44.5% of passing plays (seventh in the NFL) and sacks on 8.2% of those snaps (fifth), while blitzing at just the 26th-highest rate in the league (21.2%).

When the Raiders do bring extra heat, there could be openings to exploit in the secondary. They’ve only run Cover 0 on 14 dropbacks this season, but have allowed nine completions on 11 attempts, 182 yards, and four touchdowns with an opponent EPA/play of +0.270 on those plays. When blitzed last week (20 snaps, 47.8%), Maye completed 11-of-18 attempts with 156 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions, held an adjusted completion percentage of 75.3%, picked up 11 first downs, and registered a passer rating of 128.7. 

New England will need to work around Maxx Crosby to have success in their dropback passing game — and the superstar edge rusher is once again off to a hot start in 2026. After an offseason trade to the Baltimore Ravens fell through, Crosby returned to Las Vegas and has racked up 2.0 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, 25 total pressures, and a pass-rush win-rate of 19.8% in four games. His 90.0 defensive grade ranks third among all NFL edge defenders, and his pass-rush grade (86.7) ranks fifth, per PFF.

With Malcolm Koonce (team-high 2.5 sacks) and Kwity Paye (2.0 sacks) as running mates for Crosby, the Raiders have a stable of pass rushers that can affect the pocket and force Maye into adverse conditions. He’ll need to show the same resolve he did in Orchard Park to sustain drives and take advantage of the few opportunities presented against this group.

One month into the regular season and the Patriots are still looking for ways to find solid space on the ground to establish their rushing attack. Las Vegas may be the team to accomplish that against.

New England’s rushing numbers look good on the surface from one week ago: 35 rushing attempts, 143 rushing yards, and one touchdown — but much like their season-long statistics, those are heavily skewed by a few outliers and the threat of Maye’s legs as a scrambler. In the 2026 regular season, the Patriots rank ninth in EPA/rush (-0.02), 16th in rushing success rate (42.5%), and 18th in yards per carry (3.93).

Maye has been a big factor in producing somewhat stable results on the ground each week. He’s rushed 23 times on the year for 136 yards and leads all quarterbacks with 15 first down runs. New England’s running backs, on the other hand, are averaging 3.7 yards per carry. Rhamondre Stevenson has carried the ball 44 times with 163 yards and one touchdown, while TreVeyon Henderson has logged 38 carries, 141 yards, and one touchdown. Both only have one carry over 20 yards on the season, and each of those came in Week 2. 

The Patriots have leaned into Stevenson more on early downs, and the efficiency metrics show exactly why. He ranks 30th in the NFL in rushing success rate (45.5%), while Henderson lags far behind at 54th (36.8%). Neither of those figures are inspiring, but New England’s offensive line isn’t doing either back any favors. On the season, the Patriots rank just 25th in yards before contact per attempt (0.98), and are tied for the third-most stuffed runs in the NFL (26). They also hold the third-highest stuffed-run rate in the NFL at 24.8%.

This weekend, they’ll be facing off against a Raiders defense with their own containment issues against opposing ground games, but has been masked by a ballhawking, turnover-generating style of aggressive play. Las Vegas' standings against the run don't look awful at first glance — their EPA/rush allowed ranks 16th (-0.07) and their success rate against the run ranks 13th (40.4%). The Raiders lead the league with 11 forced fumbles (including linebacker Nakobe Dean’s league-best three forced fumbles) and five fumble recoveries, but that’s about where their highlights end. 

Pushing deeper, Las Vegas has stuffed runs at the 19th-highest rate (18.8%) and has allowed the fifth-most ten-plus yard rushes (13th). They allow 2.31 yards before contact per rush — which is tied for last in the league — and they rank second-to-last in the NFL in yards per carry allowed (5.17). 

Without a truly dominant interior presence to stop opposing running backs, the Raiders have not been a reliable unit against the run, just as New England hasn’t been able to establish a reliable running game in their own right. This will be a weakness-on-weakness battle in the trenches on early downs and in short yardage, and should give the Patriots a pathway towards building confidence in that area — if they’re able to execute. More offensive balance will be needed as the season progresses, and this could be the outing that they finally start to find that.

Maye’s developing chemistry with a shrinking number of New England wide receivers will be tested once again this weekend. 

In Orchard Park, Romeo Doubs stepped to the forefront for the first time in 2026 with six receptions, 58 yards, and two touchdowns. His lone blunder — a second quarter drop that resulted in a Dee Alford interception — was masked by his two scores and two fourth down conversions. Asserting himself as the number-one option out-wide, Doubs’ 26.7% target share in Week 4 was a team-high and season-best mark. More often than not, he presented a reliable target for Maye when working against the Bills’ secondary, and he’ll need to continue along that trajectory this week.

While Doubs worked his way into the offense early, Efton Chism III starred for the Patriots late. Each of his two receptions came on the game-winning touchdown drive: the first went for 19-yards and a first down just outside of the red zone, and the next put an exclamation point on New England’s upset victory with a one-handed touchdown catch that gave the Patriots the lead with under two minutes to go. He’ll likely have an expanded role in the offense this week, and has quickly become a trusted target for Maye.

In the slot, DeMario Douglas will be looking to rebound from another quiet day in the box score. His two receptions and 15 receiving yards failed to leave a lasting impression against Buffalo, but his high percentage of snaps played in 11 personnel puts him in position to “pop” on any given Sunday. Efficiency has been Douglas’ biggest hurdle this year — he’s recorded nine receptions on 17 targets, and his 52.9% reception rate ranks last on the team for any player with 10 or more targets.

Without Mack Hollins in the lineup, this Sunday will also mark the most expansive opportunity for Kyle Williams to date. He’s recorded just two receptions (on seven targets, 28.6% reception rate) and 44 receiving yards in his second season, and was shut out of the Bills’ game last week on two targets. Williams' projected year-two breakout has yet to lift-off, and with a thinning group around him, this weekend may represent a “now or never” proposition for the young speedster. 

Facing off against a Las Vegas defense that majors in Cover 3 and Cover 6, the running backs and tight ends are also likely to get many looks in the passing game. Out of the backfield, Rhamondre Stevenson has quietly tied for second in receptions (12) with Doubs and Hunter Henry this season on 16 targets (fourth on the team).

Henry’s bounce back against Buffalo was notable; his five receptions on as many targets and 62 yards were season-best marks. To this point of the year, Henry ranks third on the team in receiving yards (133) and fifth on the team in targets (15). He’s been as efficient as ever, even if the highlight plays have yet to come — and the Raiders matchup may be the time and place for those to begin. Through four games, Las Vegas has allowed 24 receptions on 30 targets (80.0% reception rate), 184 yards, and five touchdowns to opposing tight ends.

The Raiders’ secondary has lived in a state of “feast or famine” to begin the regular season. They’re tied for third in the NFL with four interceptions, but have also allowed the seventh-most touchdown passes against (seven). Opposing quarterbacks have frequently pushed the ball downfield against them — facing the league’s third-highest ADoT (9.98 yards) — and they’ve only forced contested catches on 10.8% of passing attempts (25th).

Cornerback Hezekiah Masses, a 2026 fifth-round pick (No. 175 overall), has been a surprising bright spot with a knack for forcing turnovers. He’s tied for the league-lead with three interceptions in his first four professional games, and has allowed just 10 receptions on 21 targets (47.5% reception rate) with one pass breakup and a passer rating against of 59.5 — but has also been on the wrong end of two touchdowns and 129 receiving yards.

Former Bills’ standout Taron Johnson has also been a key to Las Vegas’ early-season success in the slot. In a scheme that runs nickel on 81.0% of snaps (fourth-highest in the NFL), Johnson has been a versatile chess piece as a reliable coverage defender and excellent tackler. Johnson’s 89.3 tackling grade ranks first among 102 qualifying corners and his 81.1 run defense grade ranks 11th, per PFF.

To the field, cornerback Eric Stokes has led the way with 100% of the defensive snaps played for the Raiders, but has also been the most susceptible to breakdowns. Stokes has allowed 171 yards and two touchdowns in coverage, and accounts for a passer rating against of 113.8 on the season. His 44.2 defensive grade ranks 93rd of 102 cornerbacks, as does his 41.8 coverage grade.

If given the chance, Las Vegas will create takeaways through interceptions or forced fumbles. The Patriots will need to preach the importance of ball security all game against the Raiders, but if they’re able to maintain possession when they have it, opportunities will be presented to generate explosive plays and put points on the scoreboard with regularity.

A more extensive list of absences is present on New England’s defense, but the Patriots offense will continue to be without key contributors on Sunday, as well.

Wide receiver Mack Hollins (calf) and fullback Reggie Gilliam (ankle/knee) were both already ruled out for the Raiders game. Now, New England will be without their top two wide receivers as A.J. Brown continues to work his way back from injured reserve with a high ankle sprain, and Hollins previously stepped into the X role in replacement of him. The Patriots have four wide receivers on the active roster — Efton Chism III, Romeo Doubs, DeMario Douglas, and Kyle Williams — with Kyle Dixon and Cameron Dorner as the most likely practice squad elevation candidates. Gilliam’s role will likely be filled by a tight end (or two), with Tanner Arkin and Cameron Latu both previously taking snaps in the backfield.

Morgan Moses (foot) and Rhamondre Stevenson (knee) spent the week as limited participants in practice and carry questionable game day statuses for New England. Drake Maye (right shoulder) was once again listed during the week, but was a full participant and carries no injury designation into the weekend.

The injury report for Las Vegas’ defense is much less dire. No players have been ruled out for the Raiders’ defense, nor carry game day statuses. Defensive tackle Foley Fatukasi (shoulder) and linebacker Segun Olubi (wrist) were each limited during the week of practice, but both look good to go for Sunday.

The resurgence of Drake Maye, an improved offensive line, and developing chemistry with a new set of skill position players led the Patriots to an improbable victory last Sunday. This week, the Raiders will be blustering in from sea looking to squander any forward momentum with an aggressive new-look defense that just faltered in their first major test of the fall. If New England is able to build upon their most recent successes, they’ll be pillaging the end zone once again this Sunday. If Las Vegas returns to their early-season form, they may be laughing when they’ve conquered and won. 

What will you be watching for when the Patriots’ offense lines up across from the Raiders’ defense? Drop your thoughts in the comments below and join the conversation on Patriots Roundtable.

–

Follow Eddie on Patriots Roundtable

Recent Articles:

- What to Watch For: New England Patriots Defense vs. Las Vegas Raiders Offense | Week 5 2026

- A Closer Look At Drake Maye’s Week 4 Resurgence in Patriots’ Win Over Bills

- Gabe Jacas Is Emerging as a Key Piece of the New England Patriots’ Defense

- All-22 Review: Drake Maye, Patriots’ Defense Delivers Clutch Comeback Win Over Bills

- 10 Key Takeaways from the New England Patriots’ Resilient Victory at the Buffalo Bills

Check out the Patriots Roundtable Podcast!

YouTube

Spotify

Apple Podcasts