Los Angeles' dime-heavy approach is built to take away easy throws — but with Drake Maye’s efficiency vs. zone and New England’s late-season shift toward heavier run looks, the Patriots have multiple paths to stress Los Angeles on Sunday night.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run a unique and effective defensive scheme under coordinator Jesse Minter. An outlier among NFL defenses, Los Angeles prefers to run more dime (six defensive backs) than base (four defensive backs) or nickel (five defensive backs).
By the end of the 2025 season, defenses around the NFL were running base on roughly 27% of plays and nickel on roughly 60%. The Chargers ran base on just 17% of snaps and nickel on 57% of snaps — both ranked 28th in the NFL.
Minter’s commitment to a six-defensive-back approach is due largely to star safety Derwin James, Jr., who plays with versatility around the formation much like the Ravens’ Kyle Hamilton.
James aligned in the slot or box on 85% of his defensive snaps in the regular season, and with Stefon Diggs typically aligned there, the two are likely to see plenty of each other throughout the course of the evening.
From Weeks 11-16, Diggs aligned in the slot on no less than 68% of his offensive snaps. But in Week 17, that changed — due in large part to Mack Hollins’ absence as a boundary receiver.
Since Hollins’ injury, Diggs has returned to playing more on the outside — logging consecutive games with over a 40% snap share in wide alignments against the Jets (47.8%) and Dolphins (52.6%). Prior to Week 17, Diggs last played more than 40% of his snaps out wide in Week 10 against Tampa Bay (43.8%). The last time he played more than 50% of his snaps out wide was Week 9 against Atlanta (51.7%).
With Diggs flexing in and out of the formation, the Chargers will need different coverage approaches throughout the game. If James is matched up on him in the slot, there’ll likely be another defensive back or linebacker nearby in the event Diggs is able to shake free of the safety. If he’s outside, there’ll likely be a safety bracketing him to the inside of the field.
Either way, Diggs will command attention from a Chargers defense that will be alert to where he is on the field at all times. Even if Diggs doesn’t have great numbers coming out of this game, the attention he commands is partly why New England is paying him as a WR1.
That’ll create one-on-one opportunities for Kayshon Boutte (153.3 passer rating and five touchdowns when targeted on throws 20+ yards downfield), Kyle Williams (20.9 yards-per-reception), and Hunter Henry (team-leading seven receiving touchdowns) throughout the course of the game.
More will be placed on boundary corners Cam Hart (ranked 63rd/114 qualified corners on PFF) and Tarheeb Still (32nd/114) to contain the Patriots’ deep threats in coverage, with assistance from safeties Elijah Molden (80th/98) and R.J. Mickens (29th/98) over the top.
Los Angeles’ coverage scheme is typically heavy in zone, running zone coverages on over 80% of snaps.
Drake Maye ranked first in the NFL in passer rating vs. zone coverages this year, with a rating of 110.2.
The Chargers graded out as one of the better passing defenses in football. They ranked fifth in yards-against per game (179.9) and allowed the third-fewest number of passing touchdowns (16). They finished the year with more interceptions (19) than touchdowns allowed through the air. Their greatest strength was against passes 20+ yards downfield, allowing a league-low 40.1 passer rating.
Maye also graded out as the highest-rated passer on 20+ yard attempts, with a passer rating of 129.2, and 10+ yard attempts, with a rating of 121.1.
When the Patriots pass, it’s likely to be a strength-on-strength matchup — but there’s one area where New England may be able to take a decisive advantage.
Los Angeles ranked 18th in pressure rate (22.6%), 16th in hurry percentage (8%) and 11th in sacks (45). Sophomore standout Tuli Tuipulotu led the team with 13 sacks, followed by Odafe Oweh (7.5), whom the Chargers acquired from the Baltimore Ravens in a trade on October 6. Khalil Mack is still in Los Angeles and finished with 5.5 sacks in 12 games played.
Unlike Justin Herbert, Maye is likely to have time to navigate the pocket and pick apart the Chargers’ zone — or use his legs against a lighter personnel package.
With Will Campbell back in the lineup and Jared Wilson likely to return this week as well, New England will have its starting offensive line back together for the first time since Week 12 in Cincinnati. That’ll help give Maye enough time and space to pick his spots against a talented group.
While, on the surface, it appears the Chargers’ defense has the tools to slow a prolific Patriots passing attack, the matchup doesn’t seem to favor Los Angeles considering where New England’s specific strengths lie — and how it chooses to attack opposing defenses.
Key #1: Let Drake Cook! Maye has proven he’s at his best when he plays within the structure of the offense and takes what the defense gives him. The Patriots will likely be running heavy personnel packages again and looking to set-up efficient throws off of play action. If Los Angeles double-teams Diggs on obvious passing downs, so be it. Maye will pick apart one-on-one matchups elsewhere, then come back to Diggs when the opportunity presents itself. This could be an “everyone eats” type of gameplan, and that’ll play to New England’s advantage when throwing the ball.
The best path toward an efficient passing performance against Los Angeles’ defense may be through the ground game.
Los Angeles ranks eighth in the NFL against the run, surrendering 105.4 yards per game to opposing offenses on the year. They rank 15th in touchdowns allowed (16) and yards-per-attempt (4.3).
In addition to leading the team in sacks, Tuipulotu leads the Chargers in tackles-for-loss (20). He is one of just five players in the NFL with 10+ sacks and 20+ tackles-for-loss.
Aside from Tuipulotu’s production, Los Angeles has struggled to maintain a high level of performance from its front seven in both the pass and run game. The Chargers are much more opportunistic than consistent, and that gives New England an opening to exploit in the postseason.
When looking at the full body of work for the Patriots this season, the rushing attack hasn’t been their greatest strength offensively. Early in the year, fumbling issues and inefficiencies in short yardage left New England with below-average grades in EPA, yards per game, and yards-per-attempt.
That group became significantly stronger as the season wore on.
Schematically, the Patriots have been employing a significantly higher percentage of 13 personnel as the season has reached its latter stages.
From Weeks 15-18, New England ran the ball on 47 plays with an additional tackle on the field, or a “tackle-eligible” 13 personnel set. They totalled 66 such plays throughout the entirety of the 2025 regular season — signaling a shift in offensive ideology later in the season.
With swing tackle Thayer Munford, Jr. receiving the majority of those reps, New England has made a point to go heavier in its personnel packages.
It’s worked wonders.
Since the bye week, New England’s running game has found new life. Over the last four games of the season, the Patriots ran for 150-plus yards three times and have done so in consecutive games.
In sets with an additional tackle on the field, New England is averaging 8.3 rushing yards-per-attempt since the bye week. On the season, they averaged 6.7 yards-per-attempt in such sets, ranking second in the league.
In contrast, Los Angeles’ commitment to more dime personnel looks has deteriorated its run defense against six offensive linemen. The Chargers rank 22nd in EPA rate allowed against that personnel.
Rhamondre Stevenson showed great confidence over that stretch, and he looked like an entirely different player than earlier in the season when he fumbled three times in the first five games. He hasn’t put the ball on the ground once since Week 5, and has been extremely reliable in pass protection.
Vrabel maintained a consistent snap share for him through his early-year woes, and he took criticism for doing so. That looks to be paying dividends now.
Stevenson’s turnaround culminated in 153 scrimmage yards and his first career three touchdown performance in Week 18. He was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week for his efforts, and was the first Patriots running back to win the award since Dion Lewis in 2017.
Helping Stevenson become a more efficient runner has been rookie TreVeyon Henderson, whose increased involvement in the offense over the course of the season has been to each’s benefit.
Henderson was thrust into the lead-back role in Weeks 9-11 when Stevenson was out with a toe injury, and used that opportunity to jumpstart a legitimate candidacy for AFC Offensive Rookie of the Year in the latter half of the season.
The Ohio State product accrued 150+ scrimmage yards twice in 2025, with multiple 50+ yard touchdown runs in each game. He also scored 2+ touchdowns in four separate games this season.
He finished the year as the team’s leading rusher (911 rushing yards) and his 1,132 scrimmage yards and ten total touchdowns were the most by a Patriots rookie running back since Robert Edwards in 1998.
It’s only been over the last month of the season, however, that Henderson and Stevenson have played near an even split in snaps — and the results have been there.
By the end of the regular season, New England ranked sixth in rushing yards-per-game (128.6), t-4th in rushing touchdowns (22), and 13th in yards-per-attempt (4.4).
Key #2: Establish the ground game. This week’s matchup against the Chargers could present a schematic advantage beyond traditional statistics. While Los Angeles isn’t the highest-graded rushing defense in the league to begin with, it has struggled most against gap-scheme runs — a specialty of the McDaniels offense. The Chargers rank just 26th in the NFL against gap scheme runs, with opponents averaging 4.5 yards-per-carry on such plays. With more defensive backs in their typical personnel packages and an overall refusal to match the offense’s personnel, running lanes should open for Stevenson and Henderson during the game. Over the last month, we’ve seen the Patriots’ rushers aggressively pursue those openings for big chunks.
As with the Patriots’ defense, the red zone battle will be key for New England’s offense.
While on the flip side of the ball, this was viewed as “weakness-on-weakness,” the Patriots offense may have its work cut out for it.
Los Angeles had the fourth-best red zone defense in the regular season, allowing touchdowns on just 46.9% of opposing offenses’ trips.
New England’s offensive red-area struggles had been well chronicled, but as with many other measures, the Patriots showed consistent improvement in the latter stages of the regular season.
The Patriots finished the regular season ranked 17th in the NFL, scoring touchdowns on 57.1% of offensive trips.
And there’s still more in the tank.
The Patriots largely refused to use Maye’s legs near the goal line in the early portion of the season before unleashing him for two first-half touchdowns against Buffalo in Week 15.
Against the Jets in Week 17, Diggs scored a touchdown on a play eerily similar to Danny Amendola’s two-point conversion against the Falcons in Super Bowl LI. His first touchdown of the year came on a similar look, and his touchdown at the end of the first half in Tampa Bay spun off of that look.
In Week 18, New England pulled out the Wildcat near the goal line and Stevenson punched it in for his first of three scores on the day.
We certainly have yet to see all that McDaniels’ has devised for this Patriots team down near the goal line, and now is the time to start emptying that bag.
Key #3: Red zone efficiency will be key on both sides of the football. Hold the Chargers to field goals, and score touchdowns when the opportunity presents itself. That’s a strength of the Chargers defense, but it has also been a strength for McDaniels as a play designer — especially in the postseason. The Patriots likely kept some tricks hidden up their sleeve during the regular season, and hopefully we’ll see them start to pull those out as early as Sunday night.
Will New England’s prolific offensive attack continue its hot streak?
Or will a talented Los Angeles defense look like Maye’s kryptonite to open his playoff career?
Stay locked into Patriots Roundtable as we continue to preview the Patriots’ playoff opener.
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