Historically, 2-0 teams qualify for the NFL postseason nearly three-quarters of the time, but a new report gives the Las Vegas Raiders a much smaller chance to do that.
The 2026 NFL season is just two weeks old, that means that less than 12% of the slate has been played. However, there are some conclusions that can be drawn as they relate to how a team has performed over those first two weeks. While it may seem obvious that starting 2-0 is better than starting 0-2, in the big picture, a 2-0 beginning can be a harbinger of even better things to come.
Specifically, since 2000, approximately 62% of the teams that started 2-0 have gone on to qualify for the playoffs. Since the NFL expanded the playoff field from six to seven teams in each conference in 2020, 73% - or nearly three-quarters - of the teams that began the season with consecutive wins qualified for the postseason.
Which brings us to the Las Vegas Raiders. Under first-year head coach Klint Kubiak, the Raiders are off to a 2-0 start, the first time they have done that since the 2021 season, which did, in fact, end with a postseason appearance. This year's start, courtesy of wins over the Miami Dolphins at home and a surprising road upset of the Los Angeles Chargers, has also helped Las Vegas rise into the low 20s in numerous NFL power rankings lists.
So, knowing the pretty compelling predictive history of 2-0 starts and the way Las Vegas is playing, is it time for the Raiders to start printing playoff tickets and their fans to start clearing their calendars for the second weekend in January?
Not so fast, says Gary Davenport of Bleacher Report. In a report released on Friday in which Davenport gauges the chances of the league's eight 2-0 teams to make the playoffs, he puts the Raiders' chances at just 20%, the lowest of the eight undefeated teams, with the Minnesota Vikings' estimated 65% chances to qualify the second-lowest.
"There isn't a more surprising undefeated team in the NFL right now than the Las Vegas Raiders," Davenport wrote. "This was supposed to be a team in the opening stages of a rebuild breaking in a rookie quarterback. Instead, veteran stopgap Kirk Cousins has three touchdown passes in each of his first two starts. Running back Ashton Jeanty is averaging over 100 total yards per game. And a defense that was overhauled in the offseason is allowing less than 14 points per game. Will this success be sustainable? Probably not - the schedule is about to get a lot more daunting. But for a long-suffering fanbase starved for success, this hot start has to feel good."
Fair enough, but in the same article Davenport rates the chances of the league's seven 0-2 teams to make the playoffs. Traditionally, 0-2 teams are able to rebound and qualify for the postseason around 12% of the time. Knowing that, Davenport gives the Houston Texans a 35% chance and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a 30% chance to qualify - both better odds than what he assigns the 2-0 Raiders - with the Indianapolis Colts also above the historic norm at 18%.
OK, Davenport is correct in pointing out the schedule is about to get a lot stiffer with games against the Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos looming in the eight weeks after the Silver-and-Black visits the New Orleans Saints on Sunday.
But who's to say that the good vibes and improved play that have been in evidence over a successful first two weeks can't translate to the rest of the season?
