The conversations that continue to happen for the Baltimore Ravens and Lamar Jackson, potentially heading for a split, have gone on for days, weeks, months, and years. The simple fact is that he is the face of the organization and will presumably remain so.

Despite things always seeming to be ironclad, the NFL can also be an unforgiving landscape of tough business decisions. With new comments coming out about Jackson, let's play devil's advocate and truly analyze the reality of the two-time MVP leaving the Ravens behind. 

On a segment for "Get Up," the conversation about Jackson potentially leaving was brought up again by one of the most respected analyst voices, Lance Reddick. Reddick was asked point-blank if he believes if 2026 could be the quarterback's "final season" with the team.

"It's not out of the question for a number of reasons. Look, the Ravens are up against the cap here in near future, especially if you are talking about 2027 cap. They're $20 million plus over the cap, now projected. Lamar's cap number from this year to next goes from like $34 to $84 million. They need to get that down, they need to get a long-term extension in place," Reddick said.

Let's just get into the nitty-gritty of what Reddick is saying about Jackson's current cap number. Per Spotrac, those numbers are accurate.

Jackson is currently owed $34.39 million in 2026 per his contract. This leads into the final year of his deal, which would pay him $84.34 million. Reddick was right on the money regarding the cap hit. 

That said, the Ravens would need to significantly lower that cap hit in 2027, which they could do by offering the quarterback a long-term extension. The issue is that the front office has chosen instead to forego a new deal for now by giving Jackson a restructure instead.

Baltimore chose to turn Jackson's salary into a signing bonus, which lowered the $74.5 million cap hit to $34.54 million in 2026. There is a belief that a new deal is incoming, but the front office might also wait until the 2027 offseason to do so.

Jackson isn't the only player who needs an extension.

Linebacker Roquan Smith, offensive lineman Ronnie Stanley, cornerback Marlon Humphrey, running back Derrick Henry, and more will see their deals end in 2027. That is also not to mention wide receiver Zay Flowers, who is awaiting a new deal, but the Ravens indicated they would pick up his fifth-year option.

That fifth-year option still pays Flowers over $27 million. 

Considering the cap situation the Ravens have themselves in, the reasoning behind Jackson leaving could be that his contract extension would cause some big issues for the team as a whole. 

There is a strong chance the contract for Jackson could lead to being traded or not being extended in 2027.

Thinking about Jackson's longevity and cap hit ties to the direction of the team. It is known that the Ravens were hit hard in free agency. 

A total of 11 players left in free agency, with the most important to Jackson being center Tyler Linderbaum. After negotiations failed with the consensus top center, the Las Vegas Raiders offered him a $27 per season contract that led to his exit.

Jackson may have seen this transpire and taken umbrage with it. This is just speculation but losing a top offensive lineman is never a good thing, especially with how good Linderbaum is.

Tight ends Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar, safeties Ar'Darius Washington and Alohi Gilman, and pass rusher Dre'Mont Jones all left. The roster has some significant holes that could be a concern for 2026 and beyond.

As mentioned above, losing Linderbaum was one of the big moments for the Ravens that could significantly impact the 2026 season and beyond. 

Jackson is not getting any younger, and the idea has always been to put the pieces around him to capitalize on a championship window. Unfortunately, the Ravens have not been able to get over the hump of making it to the big show. 

Since Jackson took over, the Ravens have been to the Divisional Round three times, lost in the Wild Card Round once, and played in the AFC Championship once.

Making the playoffs five out of seven years for Jackson aren't terrible odds. The issue is only appearing in the conference championship one time, and not being able to make it to the Super Bowl.

John Harbaugh was fired for this reason. His inability to capitalize on the efforts of Jackson, especially when he secured two MVP awards, was the driving force behind the team moving in a new direction.

The same could be said for Jackson. If the Ravens cannot move the needle with the quarterback, there could be a conversation to be had about fit. 

If Jackson cannot lead the team, maybe a change of scenery would make more sense. That could especially be true if the contract issues remain.

All in all, there is never a guarantee that any player will play their entire career with one team. While it does happen often, trades, cap issues, and more can lead to unceremonious splits or trade requests.

Does this mean the Ravens would consider trading or letting Jackson walk in free agency? That is highly unlikely, but nobody can tell the future.