The two trains of thought that will determine whether Russell Wilson makes it to Canton.
Former Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson announced his retirement from the NFL this week ... at least him playing in the NFL.
"Russ" spent 14 years quarterbacking four different teams, but 10 of those years came with the Seahawks. He guided Seattle to two Super Bowls and won his lone title by throwing two touchdown passes in a blowout win in 2014.
As he exits the playing field, Wilson announced that he won't be going too far. He is taking his strong football IQ and bubbly personality to television, where he's agreed to join CBS Sports' NFL coverage as an analyst.
That will keep him in the public eye, likely for years to come, as has been the case with other notable quarterbacks who navigated retirement. Troy Aikman, Terry Bradshaw, Tony Romo, Tom Brady, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dan Orlovsky, and Drew Brees have all found success in similar jumps to the media.
But for fans of Wilson, the next few years will focus on a specific question related to his playing career:
Did Russell Wilson do enough to be enshrined into the Pro Football Hall of Fame?
Let's take a look down each pathway that lays out whether or not Russ gets immortalized with a bust in Canton.
The Former HOF 'Shoo-in'
Wilson was never supposed to be that good, that early as a rookie in 2012.
He won the starting job after being just a third-round draft pick, went on to throw for over 3,000 yards and finished on the podium of Offensive Rookie of the Year behind the No. 2 and no. 1 overall draft picks that year, respectively.
Year 2? Wilson built his playoff legacy by winning the Super Bowl. He made it again the year after, but an infamous play at the goal line kept his Seahawks from back-to-back titles.
At this point - with a decade still to go - he might've been considered a future "shoo-in."
Though he never returned to the big game, Wilson kept putting up numbers and stacking wins. He was a model of durability, playing all 16 games in each of his first nine seasons - which in and of itself is a considerable resume bullet with his bruising style of play.
Wilson led the NFL in touchdowns in 2017 (34), one of his 10 Pro-Bowl seasons. He had the highest QBR two years prior with a 110.1. Over a QB's first 10 seasons, only Peyton Manning recorded more wins than Wilson in NFL history, by one game.
Only one player in NFL history has thrown for over 40,000 yards and rushed for over 5,000: Russell Wilson. He is fifth all-time with seven seasons of over a 100 QBR. All the players who have more are hall of famers. His Walter Payton Man of the Year win in 2020 is a significant accomplishment, as well.
But in 2022, everything changed. Wilson's Seahawks went just 6-8 (his first losing season) in 2021 and the Broncos acquired him in a trade that included five high draft picks going to Seattle.
What has transpired since then is a stain on what had been a phenomenal career.
Recency Bias Highlights Whether Wilson Was Actually That Good
Sadly, Wilson's final four seasons have done damage to his reputation. The Denver experiment was a train wreck as Broncos Country rode its way to an 11-19 record over two seasons.
Wilson then went to Pittsburgh, but his play was far from the dual-threat weapon he was early in his career. And a mediocre 6-5 as the starter for the Steelers showed that. And finally, he played in just three games for the New York Giants, going winless, before rookie Jaxson Dart was given the keys.
Does this rough final stretch diminish all that Wilson had done throughout his career? No, and nor should it. But does recency bias force fans - and HOF voters - to take a closer look at whether or not he was truly considered an all-time great before this? Yes.
First, the eye test. Wilson was undoubtedly good, both with his cannon of an arm and physicality and comfort as a runner. But was he ever considered as a Tier 1 quarterback in his prime? If that takes some thinking, then that case gets harder to support. I'd bet most would still pick Brady, Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning, or even Matt Ryan ahead of or even with Wilson at their peaks.
The Athletic notes the numbers at retirement, where Wilson has a case to land in either bucket: "slam dunks or those needing explanation."
"The last 10 quarterbacks elected to the Hall of Fame as modern-era candidates could be instructive for Wilson," said Mike Sando.
"Brees, Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Warren Moon, Dan Marino, and John Elway all were in the top three in all-time passing yards when they retired. All but Moon were in the top three in passing touchdowns (fourth). No one is suggesting passing yards and passing touchdowns are advanced metrics, but in the cases of avowed top quarterbacks, it’s one way to separate them."
When yards is the topic of conversation, Wilson sits No. 16 all-time. A respectable total, nonetheless, but still below names like Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers and Joe Flacco, among others, who also have questionable Canton candidacies.
There could be an "icon" factor - such as Jim Kelly regularly dragging the Bills to the Super Bowl but never winning one, and Aikman being the face of an iconic franchise where he was thought of more for playoff success than statistics.
And Wilson might have some of this, but you can't be surprised if someone thinks of the Legion of Boom defense or "Beast Mode" Marshawn Lynch before Wilson when reminiscing on those early Seahawks teams.
And of the individual accolades, all 27 quarterbacks in the Hall of Fame (including Brees, this year's inductee), every single one of them has won an MVP at least once.
Wilson never received a single MVP vote.
My final prediction? Wilson will eventually be a hall of famer. He's going to have to wait his turn and allow voter nostalgia to kick in before he can officially get the nod.
For reference, Pro Football Reference's QB Hall of Fame monitor - which gives a numerical metric of a quarterback's candidacy in comparison to prior inductees' accomplishments - gives Wilson a score of 94.82.
That is below Matthew Stafford (108.11), Ryan (106.05) and Roethlisberger (100.28), with superstars Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson likely adding to their own careers with much more left in the tank.
You can'd deny that Wilson let it all out on the field during his playing career.
And as unfortunate as it is for the 12th Man who cheered him on for most of the way, Wilson will most likely have to maintain that spirit of resilience when it comes to waiting to be enshrined in Canton.
