Stroud's absence thrusts Mills back under center. Can Houston's elite defense and surging offense shock the Bills and seize a winning record?
(UPDATE: According to multiple reports, Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has officially returned to practice as of today and we now await word on whether or not he has a chance for clearance prior to Thursday's game against the Bills.)
With news that Texans starting quarterback C.J. Stroud missed yesterday's practice walk-throughs (concussion), backup quarterback Davis Mills will be preparing for his third straight start this week against the Buffalo Bills on Thursday Night Football.
In the two games Stroud has missed, Mills has put up a stat line of: 53/86 (62%), 566 yards, three touchdowns, one rushing touchdown, one interception, two game-winning drives, and an 87.8 avg. passer rating.
Although it was against the Jaguars (6-4) and Titans (1-9), Mills performed admirably and helped bring a spark to an offense that has been inconsistent for the majority of the season . Now, he'll be called upon at least one more time to try for a three-peat in NRG Stadium on Amazon Prime.
If he and the NFL's #1 overall defense overcome the Bills, it would give the Texans their first winning record of the season at 6-5 and have them firmly entrenched in the AFC playoff picture with six games left.
With that said, here are three keys for a Texans win on Thursday night:
Key #1: Defense Has To Play Lights Out
We're not really breaking news here, but the Texans have the NFL's best overall defense heading into Thursday night's game against Buffalo. They are first in total yards (258.1/game), third against the pass (171.0/game), third against the rush (87.1/game) and first in points per game (16.3/game).
They have not given up 30 points against any opponent all year, and have held teams to 20 points or fewer eight times. Against the Bills, they will face an MVP in Josh Allen, who has led his offense to 20+ points or more in eight out of 10 games (including 30+ six times, 40+ three times).
They are the second best offense in the NFL (387.4/game), ranking eight in passing yards (239.8), first in rushing yards (147.6/game) and fourth in points per game (29.2/game).
For Houston to have a chance in this one, they will have to play their best defense of the year. Whether it's clogging up rushing lanes for Bills running back James Cook, creating havoc in the trenches all night for Allen, or shutting down their passing game with a stingy secondary, the Texans will have to remain disciplined and harass Buffalo's offense in every way they can.
Allen has thrown three interceptions in his last two games. Perhaps there's an opportunity to flip the game on its head by dominating the turnover differential?
(It's also worth noting that the Texans handed Allen one of the worst offensive games of his career in their previous meeting just last season.)
Key #2: Nico Collins and Jayden Higgins Must Perform
In the last two games, Texans receivers Nico Collins and Jayden Higgins have combined for: 39 targets, 25 catches, 325 yards and two touchdowns. It certainly has been their most productive stretch of football on the season, and they'll need to continue that two days from now.
Even if the Bills' secondary is third in yards (169.7 yards/game) and tied for second fewest passing touchdowns (10), Houston can test their defensive backs with two 6 foot 4 inch towers standing on either side of the formation who can use their 80+ inch wingspans to make leaping contested catches and beat their men deep down field.
Also, the Texans are undefeated when Higgins has at least four catches or a touchdown reception (3-0 with a touchdown, 4-0 with four or more catches).
Key #3: Run The Football
The Bills actually have the second-worst rush defense in the NFL (153.0/game), which could open the door for big games for the running back tandem of Woody Marks and Nick Chubb. Houston ranks 23rd in rush yards per game (107.6/game), 22nd in yards per carry (4.2/carry) and 27th in rushing touchdowns (5).
Yet, Thursday could be a time to exploit for very real weakness in Buffalo's defense and manufacture efficient offensive possessions by prominently featuring the run game.
If Marks and Chubb can help carry the load and take the pressure off of Mills and the passing game, the Texans will have a great shot of winning their third game in a row.
What are some other keys for a Texans victory? Let us know in the comment section below or on the official Texans Roundtable X account (@Texans_RTB)!